Demand forecasting in supply chain management (SCM) is critical for optimizing inventory, reducing waste, and improving customer satisfaction. Conventional approaches frequently neglect external influences like weather, festivities, and equipment breakdowns, resulting in inefficiencies. This research investigates the use of machine learning (ML) algorithms to improve demand prediction in retail and vending machine sectors. Four machine learning algorithms. Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Facebook Prophet (Fb Prophet), and Support Vector Regression (SVR) were used to forecast inventory requirements. Ex-ternal factors like weekdays, holidays, and sales deviation indicators were methodically incorporated to enhance precision. XGBoost surpassed other models, reaching the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 22.7 with the inclusion of external variables. ARIMAX and Fb Prophet demonstrated noteworthy enhancements, whereas SVR fell short in performance. Incorporating external factors greatly improves the precision of demand forecasting models, and XGBoost is identified as the most efficient algorithm. This study offers a strong framework for enhancing inventory management in retail and vending machine systems.
Technical University of Denmark（丹麦技术大学）；Technical University of Munich（慕尼黑工业大学）；University of Groningen（格罗宁根大学）；University of Twente（特文特大学）；Munich Data Science Institute（慕尼黑数据科学研究所）
Bike-sharing systems are a rapidly developing mode of transportation and provide an efficient alternative to passive, motorized personal mobility. The asymmetric nature of bike demand causes the need for rebalancing bike stations, which is typically done during night time. To determine the optimal starting inventory level of a station for a given day, a User Dissatisfaction Function (UDF) models user pickups and returns as non-homogeneous Poisson processes with piece-wise linear rates. In this paper, we devise a deep generative model directly applicable in the UDF by introducing a variational …
California Wildfire Inventory (CAWFI): An Extensive Dataset for Predictive Techniques based on Artificial Intelligence
Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；Harvard University T. H. Chan School of Public Health（哈佛大学T.H. Chan公共卫生学院）；University of Texas Health Science Center（德克萨斯大学健康科学中心）
ORPR: An OR-Guided Pretrain-then-Reinforce Learning Model for Inventory Management
Department of Industrial Engineering, Tsinghua University（清华大学工业工程系）；Supply Chain Tech Team Y, JD.com（京东供应链技术团队）；Faculty of Engineering and Faculty of Business and Economics, The University of Hong Kong（香港大学工程学院和商学院）
AI Agents for Inventory Control: Human-LLM-OR Complementarity
Stern School of Business, New York University（纽约大学斯特恩商学院）；Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）；Graduate School of Business and Data Science Institute, Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学商学院与数据科学研究院）
Approximate non-linear model predictive control with safety-augmented neural networks
Institute for Data Science in Mechanical Engineering, RWTH Aachen University（机械工程数据科学研究所，亚琛RWTH大学）；Institute for Dynamic Systems and Control, ETH Zürich（动态系统与控制研究所，苏黎世联邦理工学院）
Compartmental models are a tool commonly used in epidemiology for the mathematical modelling of the spread of infectious diseases, with their most popular representative being the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model and its derivatives. However, current SIR models are bounded in their capabilities to model government policies in the form of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and weather effects and offer limited predictive power. More capable alternatives such as agent based models (ABMs) are computationally expensive and require specialized hardware. We introduce a neural network au…
College of Computer Science, Zhejiang University（浙江大学计算机科学学院）；Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学泰珀商学院）
This paper considers the recently popular beyond-worst-case algorithm analysis model which integrates machine-learned predictions with online algorithm design. We consider the online Steiner tree problem in this model for both directed and undirected graphs. Steiner tree is known to have strong lower bounds in the online setting and any algorithm's worst-case guarantee is far from desirable. This paper considers algorithms that predict which terminal arrives online. The predictions may be incorrect and the algorithms' performance is parameterized by the number of incorrectly predicted terminal…
A Surrogate-Augmented Symbolic CFD-Driven Training Framework for Accelerating Multi-objective Physical Model Development
Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Melbourne（墨尔本大学机械工程系）；Research and Innovation Centre Takasago Area, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd（三洋重工业株式会社 Takasago 区研究与创新中心）
Leveraging Data Augmentation and Siamese Learning for Predictive Process Monitoring
Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Eindhoven University of Technology, The Netherlands（数学与计算机科学系，埃因霍温理工大学，荷兰）；Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Padua, Italy（数学与计算机科学系，帕多瓦大学，意大利）
Data driven modeling based approaches have recently gained a lot of attention in many challenging meteorological applications including weather element forecasting. This paper introduces a novel data-driven predictive model based on TransUNet for precipitation nowcasting task. The TransUNet model which combines the Transformer and U-Net models has been previously successfully applied in medical segmentation tasks. Here, TransUNet is used as a core model and is further equipped with Convolutional Block Attention Modules (CBAM) and Depthwise-separable Convolution (DSC). The proposed Attention Au…
Evolution Strategy (ES) algorithms have shown promising results in training complex robotic control policies due to their massive parallelism capability, simple implementation, effective parameter-space exploration, and fast training time. However, a key limitation of ES is its scalability to large capacity models, including modern neural network architectures. In this work, we develop Predictive Information Augmented Random Search (PI-ARS) to mitigate this limitation by leveraging recent advancements in representation learning to reduce the parameter search space for ES. Namely, PI-ARS combin…
As the size, complexity, and availability of data continues to grow, scientists are increasingly relying upon black-box learning algorithms that can often provide accurate predictions with minimal a priori model specifications. Tools like random forests have an established track record of off-the-shelf success and even offer various strategies for analyzing the underlying relationships among variables. Here, motivated by recent insights into random forest behavior, we introduce the simple idea of augmented bagging (AugBagg), a procedure that operates in an identical fashion to classical baggin…
Comprehensive Monitoring of Air Pollution Hotspots Using Sparse Sensor Networks
New York University（纽约大学）；Google Research（谷歌研究）；Toyota InfoTechnology Center（丰田信息技术中心）；Kaiterra Inc（Kaiterra公司）；University of Warwick（沃里克大学）；Yale University（耶鲁大学）
Mitsubishi Electric（三菱电机）；Mitsubishi Electric Research Labs（三菱电机研究实验室）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）
Humans quickly solve tasks in novel systems with complex dynamics, without requiring much interaction. While deep reinforcement learning algorithms have achieved tremendous success in many complex tasks, these algorithms need a large number of samples to learn meaningful policies. In this paper, we present a task for navigating a marble to the center of a circular maze. While this system is very intuitive and easy for humans to solve, it can be very difficult and inefficient for standard reinforcement learning algorithms to learn meaningful policies. We present a model that learns to move a ma…
MIT CSAIL（麻省理工学院计算机科学与人工智能实验室）；University of Chicago（芝加哥大学）
Automatic machine learning (\AML) is a family of techniques to automate the process of training predictive models, aiming to both improve performance and make machine learning more accessible. While many recent works have focused on aspects of the machine learning pipeline like model selection, hyperparameter tuning, and feature selection, relatively few works have focused on automatic data augmentation. Automatic data augmentation involves finding new features relevant to the user's predictive task with minimal ``human-in-the-loop'' involvement. We present \system, an end-to-end system that t…
Technion - Israel Institute of Technology（以色列理工学院）
Deep learning algorithms have shown promising results in visual question answering (VQA) tasks, but a more careful look reveals that they often do not understand the rich signal they are being fed with. To understand and better measure the generalization capabilities of VQA systems, we look at their robustness to counterfactually augmented data. Our proposed augmentations are designed to make a focused intervention on a specific property of the question such that the answer changes. Using these augmentations, we propose a new robustness measure, Robustness to Augmented Data (RAD), which measur…
National Research University Higher School of Economics（国立研究型大学高等经济学院）
Many economic applications including optimal pricing and inventory management requires prediction of demand based on sales data and estimation of sales reaction to a price change. There is a wide range of econometric approaches which are used to correct a bias in estimates of demand parameters on censored sales data. These approaches can also be applied to various classes of machine learning models to reduce the prediction error of sales volume. In this study we construct two ensemble models for demand prediction with and without accounting for demand censorship. Accounting for sales censorshi…
This paper proposes a differentiable linear quadratic Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework for safe imitation learning. The infinite-horizon cost is enforced using a terminal cost function obtained from the discrete-time algebraic Riccati equation (DARE), so that the learned controller can be proven to be stabilizing in closed-loop. A central contribution is the derivation of the analytical derivative of the solution of the DARE, thereby allowing the use of differentiation-based learning methods. A further contribution is the structure of the MPC optimization problem: an augmented Lagrangi…
IQVIA Inc.（艾昆纬公司）；University of Minnesota Twin Cities（明尼苏达大学双城分校）；Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）
Many computational models were proposed to extract temporal patterns from clinical time series for each patient and among patient group for predictive healthcare. However, the common relations among patients (e.g., share the same doctor) were rarely considered. In this paper, we represent patients and clinicians relations by bipartite graphs addressing for example from whom a patient get a diagnosis. We then solve for the top eigenvectors of the graph Laplacian, and include the eigenvectors as latent representations of the similarity between patient-clinician pairs into a time-sensitive predic…
University College London（伦敦大学学院）；Harbin Institute of Technology Shenzhen（哈尔滨工业大学（深圳））；University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学）
Access to external knowledge is essential for many natural language processing tasks, such as question answering and dialogue. Existing methods often rely on a parametric model that stores knowledge in its parameters, or use a retrieval-augmented model that has access to an external knowledge source. Parametric and retrieval-augmented models have complementary strengths in terms of computational efficiency and predictive accuracy. To combine the strength of both approaches, we propose the Efficient Memory-Augmented Transformer (EMAT) -- it encodes external knowledge into a key-value memory and…
Foundation for Research and Technology - Hellas（希腊研究与技术基金会）；University of Crete（克里特大学）
Predictive modelling represents an emerging field that combines existing and novel methodologies aimed to rapidly understand physical mechanisms and concurrently develop new materials, processes and structures. In the current study, previously-unexplored predictive modelling in a key-enabled technology, the laser-based manufacturing, aims to automate and forecast the effect of laser processing on material structures. The focus is centred on the performance of representative statistical and machine learning algorithms in predicting the outcome of laser processing on a range of materials. Result…
Augmented Functional Random Forests: Classifier Construction and Unbiased Functional Principal Components Importance through Ad-Hoc Conditional Permutations
Faculty of Technological and Innovation Sciences（技术与创新科学学院）；Faculty of Economics and Law（经济与法学院）
Zhejiang University of Technology（浙江工业大学）；University of California, Davis（加利福尼亚大学戴维斯分校）
Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) has been used to study the effects of neurodegenerative diseases on neural pathways, which may lead to more reliable and early diagnosis of these diseases as well as a better understanding of how they affect the brain. We introduce an intelligent visual analytics system for studying patient groups based on their labeled DTI fiber tract data and corresponding statistics. The system's AI-augmented interface guides the user through an organized and holistic analysis space, including the statistical feature space, the physical space, and the space of patients over di…
Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；Cornell University（康奈尔大学）
In this paper, we combine ideas from machine learning (ML) and operations research and management science (OR/MS) in developing a framework, along with specific methods, for using data to prescribe optimal decisions in OR/MS problems. In a departure from other work on data-driven optimization and reflecting our practical experience with the data available in applications of OR/MS, we consider data consisting, not only of observations of quantities with direct effect on costs/revenues, such as demand or returns, but predominantly of observations of associated auxiliary quantities. The main prob…
Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院运营研究中心）
We develop a tractable and flexible approach for incorporating side information into dynamic optimization under uncertainty. The proposed framework uses predictive machine learning methods (such as $k$-nearest neighbors, kernel regression, and random forests) to weight the relative importance of various data-driven uncertainty sets in a robust optimization formulation. Through a novel measure concentration result for a class of machine learning methods, we prove that the proposed approach is asymptotically optimal for multi-period stochastic programming with side information. We also describe …
