Extreme weather events are widely studied in fields such as agriculture, ecology, and meteorology. The spatio-temporal co-occurrence of extreme events can strengthen or weaken under changing climate conditions. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to model spatio-temporal extremes by integrating climate indices via a conditional variational autoencoder (cXVAE). A convolutional neural network (CNN) is embedded in the decoder to convolve climatological indices with the spatial dependence within the latent space, thereby allowing the decoder to be dependent on the climate variables. There are three main contributions here. First, we demonstrate through extensive simulations that the proposed conditional XVAE accurately emulates spatial fields and recovers spatially and temporally varying extremal dependence with very low computational cost post training. Second, we provide a simple, scalable approach to detecting condition-driven shifts and whether the dependence structure is invariant to the conditioning variable. Third, when dependence is found to be condition-sensitive, the conditional XVAE supports counterfactual experiments allowing intervention on the climate covariate and propagating the associated change through the learned decoder to quantify differences in joint tail risk, co-occurrence ranges, and return metrics. To demonstrate the practical utility and performance of the model in real-world scenarios, we apply our method to analyze the monthly maximum Fire Weather Index (FWI) over eastern Australia from 2014 to 2024 conditioned on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index.
When sensors collect spatio-temporal data in a large geographical area, the existence of missing data cannot be escaped. Missing data negatively impacts the performance of data analysis and machine learning algorithms. In this paper, we study deep autoencoders for missing data imputation in spatio-temporal problems. We propose a convolution bidirectional-LSTM for capturing spatial and temporal patterns. Moreover, we analyze an autoencoder's latent feature representation in spatio-temporal data and illustrate its performance for missing data imputation. Traffic flow data are used for evaluation…
Identifiable Autoregressive Variational Autoencoders for Nonlinear and Nonstationary Spatio-Temporal Blind Source Separation
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Jyvaskyla, Finland（数学与统计学系，于韦斯屈埃理工大学，芬兰）；Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Helsinki, Finland（数学与统计学系，赫尔辛基大学，芬兰）
We propose a molecular generative model based on the conditional variational autoencoder for de novo molecular design. It is specialized to control multiple molecular properties simultaneously by imposing them on a latent space. As a proof of concept, we demonstrate that it can be used to generate drug-like molecules with five target properties. We were also able to adjust a single property without changing the others and to manipulate it beyond the range of the dataset.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学）；Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California（南加州大学凯克医学院）
To have a superior generalization, a deep learning neural network often involves a large size of training sample. With increase of hidden layers in order to increase learning ability, neural network has potential degradation in accuracy. Both could seriously limit applicability of deep learning in some domains particularly involving predictions of continuous variables with a small size of samples. Inspired by residual convolutional neural network in computer vision and recent findings of crucial shortcuts in the brains in neuroscience, we propose an autoencoder-based residual deep network for …
University of Toronto（多伦多大学）；Toronto Rehabilitation Institute（多伦多康复研究所）；University Health Network（大学健康网络）
Human falls rarely occur; however, detecting falls is very important from the health and safety perspective. Due to the rarity of falls, it is difficult to employ supervised classification techniques to detect them. Moreover, in these highly skewed situations it is also difficult to extract domain specific features to identify falls. In this paper, we present a novel framework, \textit{DeepFall}, which formulates the fall detection problem as an anomaly detection problem. The \textit{DeepFall} framework presents the novel use of deep spatio-temporal convolutional autoencoders to learn spatial …
Aalto University（阿尔托大学）；University of Helsinki（赫尔辛基大学）；Bayer Pharmaceuticals（拜耳制药）
Conditional variational autoencoders (CVAEs) are versatile deep generative models that extend the standard VAE framework by conditioning the generative model with auxiliary covariates. The original CVAE model assumes that the data samples are independent, whereas more recent conditional VAE models, such as the Gaussian process (GP) prior VAEs, can account for complex correlation structures across all data samples. While several methods have been proposed to learn standard VAEs from partially observed datasets, these methods fall short for conditional VAEs. In this work, we propose a method to …
Vector Institute for Artificial Intelligence（向量人工智能研究院）；University of Toronto（多伦多大学）
In this paper, we describe the "implicit autoencoder" (IAE), a generative autoencoder in which both the generative path and the recognition path are parametrized by implicit distributions. We use two generative adversarial networks to define the reconstruction and the regularization cost functions of the implicit autoencoder, and derive the learning rules based on maximum-likelihood learning. Using implicit distributions allows us to learn more expressive posterior and conditional likelihood distributions for the autoencoder. Learning an expressive conditional likelihood distribution enables t…
Hong Kong University of Science and Technology（香港科技大学）
Representation learning of pedestrian trajectories transforms variable-length timestamp-coordinate tuples of a trajectory into a fixed-length vector representation that summarizes spatiotemporal characteristics. It is a crucial technique to connect feature-based data mining with trajectory data. Trajectory representation is a challenging problem, because both environmental constraints (e.g., wall partitions) and temporal user dynamics should be meticulously considered and accounted for. Furthermore, traditional sequence-to-sequence autoencoders using maximum log-likelihood often require datase…
University of Toronto（多伦多大学）；Vector Institute（向量研究所）；University of Massachusetts（马萨诸塞大学）
Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) are a popular generative model, but one in which conditional inference can be challenging. If the decomposition into query and evidence variables is fixed, conditional VAEs provide an attractive solution. To support arbitrary queries, one is generally reduced to Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling methods that can suffer from long mixing times. In this paper, we propose an idea we term cross-coding to approximate the distribution over the latent variables after conditioning on an evidence assignment to some subset of the variables. This allows generating query sam…
SunPower Corporation（SunPower公司）；SolarEdge Technologies（SolarEdge科技公司）；Case Western Reserve University（凯斯西储大学）；C2 Energy Capital（C2能源资本公司）；Sandia National Labs（桑迪亚国家实验室）
The integration of the global Photovoltaic (PV) market with real time data-loggers has enabled large scale PV data analytical pipelines for power forecasting and long-term reliability assessment of PV fleets. Nevertheless, the performance of PV data analysis heavily depends on the quality of PV timeseries data. This paper proposes a novel Spatio-Temporal Denoising Graph Autoencoder (STD-GAE) framework to impute missing PV Power Data. STD-GAE exploits temporal correlation, spatial coherence, and value dependencies from domain knowledge to recover missing data. Experimental results show that STD…
As big spatial data becomes increasingly prevalent, classical spatiotemporal (ST) methods often do not scale well. While methods have been developed to account for high-dimensional spatial objects, the setting where there are exceedingly large samples of spatial observations has had less attention. The variational autoencoder (VAE), an unsupervised generative model based on deep learning and approximate Bayesian inference, fills this void using a latent variable specification that is inferred jointly across the large number of samples. In this manuscript, we compare the performance of the VAE …
Max Planck Institute for Informatics（马克斯·普朗克信息学研究所）；Bosch Center for Artificial Intelligence（博世人工智能中心）；CISPA Helmholtz Center for Information Security（CISPA亥姆霍兹信息安全中心）
Prediction of future states of the environment and interacting agents is a key competence required for autonomous agents to operate successfully in the real world. Prior work for structured sequence prediction based on latent variable models imposes a uni-modal standard Gaussian prior on the latent variables. This induces a strong model bias which makes it challenging to fully capture the multi-modality of the distribution of the future states. In this work, we introduce Conditional Flow Variational Autoencoders (CF-VAE) using our novel conditional normalizing flow based prior to capture compl…
University of Padua（帕多瓦大学）；Fondazione Bruno Kessler（布鲁诺·凯斯勒基金会）
In recent years, deep generative models for graphs have been used to generate new molecules. These models have produced good results, leading to several proposals in the literature. However, these models may have troubles learning some of the complex laws governing the chemical world. In this work, we explore the usage of the histogram of atom valences to drive the generation of molecules in such models. We present Conditional Constrained Graph Variational Autoencoder (CCGVAE), a model that implements this key-idea in a state-of-the-art model, and shows improved results on several evaluation m…
Non-parallel many-to-many voice conversion remains an interesting but challenging speech processing task. Many style-transfer-inspired methods such as generative adversarial networks (GANs) and variational autoencoders (VAEs) have been proposed. Recently, AutoVC, a conditional autoencoders (CAEs) based method achieved state-of-the-art results by disentangling the speaker identity and speech content using information-constraining bottlenecks, and it achieves zero-shot conversion by swapping in a different speaker's identity embedding to synthesize a new voice. However, we found that while speak…
Beihang University（北京航空航天大学）；University of Central Florida（中佛罗里达大学）
Spatiotemporal data mining plays an important role in air quality monitoring, crowd flow modeling, and climate forecasting. However, the originally collected spatiotemporal data in real-world scenarios is usually incomplete due to sensor failures or transmission loss. Spatiotemporal imputation aims to fill the missing values according to the observed values and the underlying spatiotemporal dependence of them. The previous dominant models impute missing values autoregressively and suffer from the problem of error accumulation. As emerging powerful generative models, the diffusion probabilistic…
This paper aims to develop an acoustic signal-based unsupervised anomaly detection method for automatic machine monitoring. Existing approaches such as deep autoencoder (DAE), variational autoencoder (VAE), conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) etc. have limited representation capabilities in the latent space and, hence, poor anomaly detection performance. Different models have to be trained for each different kind of machines to accurately perform the anomaly detection task. To solve this issue, we propose a new method named as hierarchical conditional variational autoencoder (HCVAE). Th…
The task of predicting stochastic behaviors of road agents in diverse environments is a challenging problem for autonomous driving. To best understand scene contexts and produce diverse possible future states of the road agents adaptively in different environments, a prediction model should be probabilistic, multi-modal, context-driven, and general. We present Conditionalizing Variational AutoEncoders via Hypernetworks (CVAE-H); a conditional VAE that extensively leverages hypernetwork and performs generative tasks for high-dimensional problems like the prediction task. We first evaluate CVAE-…
European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN)（欧洲核子研究组织（CERN））；Laboratoire de Recherche en Informatique (LRI)（计算机科学研究实验室（LRI））；Université Paris-Saclay（巴黎萨克雷大学）
Exploiting the rapid advances in probabilistic inference, in particular variational Bayes and variational autoencoders (VAEs), for anomaly detection (AD) tasks remains an open research question. Previous works argued that training VAE models only with inliers is insufficient and the framework should be significantly modified in order to discriminate the anomalous instances. In this work, we exploit the deep conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) and we define an original loss function together with a metric that targets hierarchically structured data AD. Our motivating application is a rea…
Microsoft Search, Assistance and Intelligence（微软搜索、辅助与智能部门（Microsoft Search, Assistance and Intelligence））
We consider the problem of diversifying automated reply suggestions for a commercial instant-messaging (IM) system (Skype). Our conversation model is a standard matching based information retrieval architecture, which consists of two parallel encoders to project messages and replies into a common feature representation. During inference, we select replies from a fixed response set using nearest neighbors in the feature space. To diversify responses, we formulate the model as a generative latent variable model with Conditional Variational Auto-Encoder (M-CVAE). We propose a constrained-sampling…
Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics, Lomonosov Moscow State University（罗蒙诺索夫莫斯科国立大学斯科别利岑核物理研究所）；Applied Physics Institute of Irkutsk State University（伊尔库茨克国立大学应用物理研究所）；Lomonosov Moscow State University（罗蒙诺索夫莫斯科国立大学）
High-energy particles hitting the upper atmosphere of the Earth produce extensive air showers that can be detected from the ground level using imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes. The images recorded by Cherenkov telescopes can be analyzed to separate gamma-ray events from the background hadron events. Many of the methods of analysis require simulation of massive amounts of events and the corresponding images by the Monte Carlo method. However, Monte Carlo simulation is computationally expensive. The data simulated by the Monte Carlo method can be augmented by images generated using faste…
University at Buffalo（布法罗大学）；JD Finance America Corporation（京东金融美国公司）
We investigate large-scale latent variable models (LVMs) for neural story generation -- an under-explored application for open-domain long text -- with objectives in two threads: generation effectiveness and controllability. LVMs, especially the variational autoencoder (VAE), have achieved both effective and controllable generation through exploiting flexible distributional latent representations. Recently, Transformers and its variants have achieved remarkable effectiveness without explicit latent representation learning, thus lack satisfying controllability in generation. In this paper, we a…
Domain adaptation approaches aim to exploit useful information from the source domain where supervised learning examples are easier to obtain to address a learning problem in the target domain where there is no or limited availability of such examples. In classification problems, domain adaptation has been studied under varying supervised, unsupervised and semi-supervised conditions. However, a common situation when the labelled samples are available for a subset of target domain classes has been overlooked. In this paper, we formulate this particular domain adaptation problem within a general…
Kyungpook National University（庆北国立大学）；Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute（韩国电子通信研究院）
Deep generative models for audio synthesis have recently been significantly improved. However, the task of modeling raw-waveforms remains a difficult problem, especially for audio waveforms and music signals. Recently, the realtime audio variational autoencoder (RAVE) method was developed for high-quality audio waveform synthesis. The RAVE method is based on the variational autoencoder and utilizes the two-stage training strategy. Unfortunately, the RAVE model is limited in reproducing wide-pitch polyphonic music sound. Therefore, to enhance the reconstruction performance, we adopt the pitch a…
The ultimate goal of various fields is to directly generate molecules with desired properties, such as finding water-soluble molecules in drug development and finding molecules suitable for organic light-emitting diode (OLED) or photosensitizers in the field of development of new organic materials. In this respect, this study proposes a molecular graph generative model based on the autoencoder for de novo design. The performance of molecular graph conditional variational autoencoder (MGCVAE) for generating molecules having specific desired properties is investigated by comparing it to molecula…
School of Computer Science, The University of Sydney（悉尼大学计算机科学学院）；School of Computer Science, University of Technology Sydney（悉尼科技大学计算机科学学院）
Class imbalance occurs in many real-world applications, including image classification, where the number of images in each class differs significantly. With imbalanced data, the generative adversarial networks (GANs) leans to majority class samples. The two recent methods, Balancing GAN (BAGAN) and improved BAGAN (BAGAN-GP), are proposed as an augmentation tool to handle this problem and restore the balance to the data. The former pre-trains the autoencoder weights in an unsupervised manner. However, it is unstable when the images from different categories have similar features. The latter is …
We introduce a Bayesian approach for analyzing high-dimensional multinomial data that are referenced over space and time. In particular, the proportions associated with multinomial data are assumed to have a logit link to a latent spatio-temporal mixed effects model. This strategy allows for covariances that are nonstationarity in both space and time, asymmetric, and parsimonious. We also introduce the use of the conditional multivariate logit-beta distribution into the dependent multinomial data setting, which leads to conjugate full-conditional distributions for use in a collapsed Gibbs samp…
Predicting Critical Heat Flux with Uncertainty Quantification and Domain Generalization Using Conditional Variational Autoencoders and Deep Neural Networks
Generating power system states that have similar distribution and dependency to the historical ones is essential for the tasks of system planning and security assessment, especially when the historical data is insufficient. In this paper, we described a generative model for load profiles of industrial and commercial customers, based on the conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) neural network architecture, which is challenging due to the highly variable nature of such profiles. Generated contextual load profiles were conditioned on the month of the year and typical power exchange with the …
Computer poetry generation is our first step towards computer writing. Writing must have a theme. The current approaches of using sequence-to-sequence models with attention often produce non-thematic poems. We present a novel conditional variational autoencoder with a hybrid decoder adding the deconvolutional neural networks to the general recurrent neural networks to fully learn topic information via latent variables. This approach significantly improves the relevance of the generated poems by representing each line of the poem not only in a context-sensitive manner but also in a holistic way…
Discrete latent spaces in variational autoencoders have been shown to effectively capture the data distribution for many real-world problems such as natural language understanding, human intent prediction, and visual scene representation. However, discrete latent spaces need to be sufficiently large to capture the complexities of real-world data, rendering downstream tasks computationally challenging. For instance, performing motion planning in a high-dimensional latent representation of the environment could be intractable. We consider the problem of sparsifying the discrete latent space of a…
Lehigh University（利哈伊大学）；University of Illinois at Chicago（伊利诺伊大学芝加哥分校）；NYU Grossman School of Medicine（纽约大学格罗斯曼医学院）
Normative modeling is an emerging and promising approach to effectively study disorder heterogeneity in individual participants. In this study, we propose a novel normative modeling method by combining conditional variational autoencoder with adversarial learning (ACVAE) to identify brain dysfunction in Alzheimer's Disease (AD). Specifically, we first train a conditional VAE on the healthy control (HC) group to create a normative model conditioned on covariates like age, gender and intracranial volume. Then we incorporate an adversarial training process to construct a discriminative feature sp…
We address the problem of one-to-many mappings in supervised learning, where a single instance has many different solutions of possibly equal cost. The framework of conditional variational autoencoders describes a class of methods to tackle such structured-prediction tasks by means of latent variables. We propose to incentivise informative latent representations for increasing the generalisation capacity of conditional variational autoencoders. To this end, we modify the latent variable model by defining the likelihood as a function of the latent variable only and introduce an expressive multi…
School of Computer Science, Harbin Institute of Technology Shenzhen（哈尔滨工业大学（深圳）计算机科学与学院）；Qianhai Financial Holdings Co., Ltd.（前海金融控股有限公司）
Automatically generating financial report from a piece of news is quite a challenging task. Apparently, the difficulty of this task lies in the lack of sufficient background knowledge to effectively generate long financial report. To address this issue, this paper proposes the conditional variational autoencoders (CVAE) based approach which distills external knowledge from a corpus of news-report data. Particularly, we choose Bi-GRU as the encoder and decoder component of CVAE, and learn the latent variable distribution from input news. A higher level latent variable distribution is learnt fro…
University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；ETH Zürich（苏黎世联邦理工学院）；Warwick University（华威大学）
Large, multi-dimensional spatio-temporal datasets are omnipresent in modern science and engineering. An effective framework for handling such data are Gaussian process deep generative models (GP-DGMs), which employ GP priors over the latent variables of DGMs. Existing approaches for performing inference in GP-DGMs do not support sparse GP approximations based on inducing points, which are essential for the computational efficiency of GPs, nor do they handle missing data -- a natural occurrence in many spatio-temporal datasets -- in a principled manner. We address these shortcomings with the de…
For planning of power systems and for the calibration of operational tools, it is essential to analyse system performance in a large range of representative scenarios. When the available historical data is limited, generative models are a promising solution, but modelling high-dimensional dependencies is challenging. In this paper, a multivariate load state generating model on the basis of a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) neural network is proposed. Going beyond common CVAE implementations, the model includes stochastic variation of output samples under given latent vectors and co-…
GraphCSVAE: Graph Categorical Structured Variational Autoencoder for Spatiotemporal Auditing of Physical Vulnerability Towards Sustainable Post-Disaster Risk Reduction
University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；Cambridge University Centre for Risk in the Built Environment（剑桥大学建筑环境风险中心）；Earth Observation Center（地球观测中心）；Institute of Geography（地理研究所）
Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur（印度理工学院卡拉格普尔分校）
With the rapid advancement and increased use of deep learning models in image identification, security becomes a major concern to their deployment in safety-critical systems. Since the accuracy and robustness of deep learning models are primarily attributed from the purity of the training samples, therefore the deep learning architectures are often susceptible to adversarial attacks. Adversarial attacks are often obtained by making subtle perturbations to normal images, which are mostly imperceptible to humans, but can seriously confuse the state-of-the-art machine learning models. What is so …
University of Tartu（塔尔图大学）；University of Naples Federico II（那不勒斯费德里科二世大学）
Autonomous driving has a natural bi-level structure. The goal of the upper behavioural layer is to provide appropriate lane change, speeding up, and braking decisions to optimize a given driving task. However, this layer can only indirectly influence the driving efficiency through the lower-level trajectory planner, which takes in the behavioural inputs to produce motion commands. Existing sampling-based approaches do not fully exploit the strong coupling between the behavioural and planning layer. On the other hand, end-to-end Reinforcement Learning (RL) can learn a behavioural layer while in…
Gravitational wave (GW) detection is now commonplace and as the sensitivity of the global network of GW detectors improves, we will observe $\mathcal{O}(100)$s of transient GW events per year. The current methods used to estimate their source parameters employ optimally sensitive but computationally costly Bayesian inference approaches where typical analyses have taken between 6 hours and 5 days. For binary neutron star and neutron star black hole systems prompt counterpart electromagnetic (EM) signatures are expected on timescales of 1 second -- 1 minute and the current fastest method for ale…
Generative models and inferential autoencoders mostly make use of $\ell_2$ norm in their optimization objectives. In order to generate perceptually better images, this short paper theoretically discusses how to use Structural Similarity Index (SSIM) in generative models and inferential autoencoders. We first review SSIM, SSIM distance metrics, and SSIM kernel. We show that the SSIM kernel is a universal kernel and thus can be used in unconditional and conditional generated moment matching networks. Then, we explain how to use SSIM distance in variational and adversarial autoencoders and uncond…
Human behavior prediction models enable robots to anticipate how humans may react to their actions, and hence are instrumental to devising safe and proactive robot planning algorithms. However, modeling complex interaction dynamics and capturing the possibility of many possible outcomes in such interactive settings is very challenging, which has recently prompted the study of several different approaches. In this work, we provide a self-contained tutorial on a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) approach to human behavior prediction which, at its core, can produce a multimodal probabili…
Automatic analysis of spatio-temporal microscopy images is inevitable for state-of-the-art research in the life sciences. Recent developments in deep learning provide powerful tools for automatic analyses of such image data, but heavily depend on the amount and quality of provided training data to perform well. To this end, we developed a new method for realistic generation of synthetic 2D+t microscopy image data of fluorescently labeled cellular nuclei. The method combines spatiotemporal statistical shape models of different cell cycle stages with a conditional GAN to generate time series of …
Vertilas GmbH（Vertilas有限公司）；ADVA Optical Networking SE（ADVA光网络股份公司）；Kiel University (CAU)（基尔大学（克里斯蒂安-阿尔布雷希茨大学））
Semiconductor lasers have been rapidly evolving to meet the demands of next-generation optical networks. This imposes much more stringent requirements on the laser reliability, which are dominated by degradation mechanisms (e.g., sudden degradation) limiting the semiconductor laser lifetime. Physics-based approaches are often used to characterize the degradation behavior analytically, yet explicit domain knowledge and accurate mathematical models are required. Building such models can be very challenging due to a lack of a full understanding of the complex physical processes inducing the degra…
In this paper, we introduce a new spatial model that incorporates heteroscedastic variance depending on neighboring locations. The proposed process is regarded as the spatial equivalent to the temporal autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model. We show additionally how the introduced spatial ARCH model can be used in spatiotemporal settings. In contrast to the temporal ARCH model, in which the distribution is known given the full information set of the prior periods, the distribution is not straightforward in the spatial and spatiotemporal setting. However, it is possible to e…
