The full extended Gaia mission spans slightly over 10 years, whilst the current data releases represent only a fraction of it, 34 months in Gaia's third data release (DR3). The longer baseline improves the quality of astrometric fits, lowering the noise floor and making consistently bad fits (e.g., due to binarity) more apparent. In this paper, we use simulated binaries from the Gaia Universe Model to examine the long-term astrometric behaviour of single stars and stellar binaries. We calculate nominal upper limits on the spread of goodness of astrometric fits for well-behaved single stars. Specifically, for the RUWE parameter, for upcoming DR4 ($\rm RUWE_{lim}=1.15$) and DR5 ($\rm RUWE_{lim}=1.11$), using the full mission nominal scanning law. These can be used to identify poor astrometric fits and can flag potential binary systems. We show the increase in the number and type of binaries detectable through RUWE. With our updated RUWE thresholds, the number of detectable short-period binaries increases by 5-10% with each subsequent data release, suggesting detections may be possible for orbital periods down to days. The number of detectable long-period systems increases by 10-20%, with periods up to 100 years, causing significant deviations in low and moderate-eccentricity binaries. Very eccentric systems with much longer periods (thousands of years) can still be detected if they pass through periapse during the observing window. Finally, we compare our results to the analytic estimate for the spread in UWE, which we predict from a $χ$-distribution moderated by the number of observations. These agree with our inferred population limits but suggest that we may be biased by a small number of poorly sampled systems. In regions of the sky that are more frequently observed, lower limits could be employed, potentially bringing even more binaries above the threshold for detectability.
Hide and Seek with Gaia. Detectability of Predicted Thin-Disc Metal-Rich RR Lyrae Binaries in Gaia DR3 and DR4
Institut de Ciències del Cosmos (ICCUB), Universitat de Barcelona（巴塞罗那大学宇宙科学研究所）；Department of Astronomy, California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院天文学系）；School of Physics and Astronomy, Monash University（莫纳什大学物理与天文学院）；ARC Centre of Excellence for Gravitational Wave Discovery – OzGrav（ARC引力波发现卓越中心-OzGrav）；INAF – Osservatorio Astrofisico di Arcetri（意大利国家天体物理研究所阿切特里天文台）；Institute of Astronomy, University of Cambridge（剑桥大学天文学研究所）；Department of Physics, University of Rome Tor Vergata（罗马托维加塔大学物理系）；INAF Osservatorio Astronomico di Roma（意大利国家天体物理研究所罗马天文台）；Departamento de Astronomía, Instituto de Física, Universidad de la República（乌拉圭共和国大学天文学系、物理研究所）
Extrapolation of the astrometric motion of the nearby low-mass star VB 10 indicates that sometime in late December 2011 or during the first 2-3 months of 2012, the star will make a close approach to a background point source. Based on astrometric uncertainties, we estimate a 1 in 2 chance that the distance of closest approach ρ_{min} will be less than 100mas, a 1 in 5 chance that ρ_{min}<50mas, and a 1 in 10 chance that ρ_{min}<20mas. The latter would result in a microlensing event with a 6% magnification in the light from the background source, and an astrometric shift of 3.3 mas. The lensing…
To date not a single-bona fide planet has been identified orbiting a single white dwarf. In fact we are ignorant about the final configuration of >95% of planetary systems. Theoretical models predict a gap in the final distribution of orbital periods, due to the opposite effects of stellar mass loss (planets pushed outwards) and tidal interactions (planets pushed inwards) during the RGB and the AGB stellar expansions. Over its five year primary mission, Gaia is expected to astrometrically detect the first (few tens of) WD massive planets/BDs giving first evidence that WD planets exist, at leas…
Black hole-main sequence star (BH-MS) binaries are one of the targets of the future data releases of the astrometric satellite {\it Gaia}. They are supposed to be formed in two main sites: a galactic field and star clusters. However, previous work has never predicted the number of BH-MS binaries originating in the latter site. In this paper, we estimate the number of BH-MS binaries formed in open clusters and detectable with {\it Gaia} based on the results of {\it N}-body simulations. By considering interstellar extinction in the Milky Way (MW) and observational constraints, we predict $\sim 1…
Black hole astrometric binaries in the Roman Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey
Observatories of the Carnegie Institution for Science（卡内基科学研究所天文台）；Department of Astronomy, University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校天文学系）；Department of Astronomy, California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院天文学系）；Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Utah（犹他大学物理与天文学系）；Space Telescope Science Institute（太空望远镜科学研究所）；UCLA Department of Physics and Astronomy（加州大学洛杉矶分校物理与天文学系）；Space Science Institute（空间科学研究所）；Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory（劳伦斯利弗莫尔国家实验室）
In astrometric binaries, the presence of a dark, unseen star can be inferred from the gravitational pull it induces on its luminous binary companion. While the orbit of such binaries can be characterized with precise astrometric measurements, constraints made from astrometry alone are not enough to measure the component masses. In this work, we determine the precision with which Gaia can astrometrically measure the orbits and -- with additional observations -- the component masses, for luminous stars hosting hidden companions. Using realistic mock Gaia observations, we find that Gaia can preci…
Ultra-precise astrometry from the Gaia mission is expected to lead to astrometric detections of more than 20,000 exoplanets in our Galaxy. One of the factors that could hamper such detections is the astrometric jitter caused by the magnetic activity of the planet host stars. In our previous study, we modeled astrometric jitter for the Sun observed equator-on. In this work, we generalize our model and calculate the photocenter jitter as it would be measured by the Gaia and Small-JASMINE missions for stars with solar rotation rate and effective temperature, but with various values of the inclina…
We present a catalogue of 362 million stellar parameters, distances, and extinctions derived from Gaia's early third data release (EDR3) cross-matched with the photometric catalogues of Pan-STARRS1, SkyMapper, 2MASS, and AllWISE. The higher precision of the Gaia EDR3 data, combined with the broad wavelength coverage of the additional photometric surveys and the new stellar-density priors of the {\tt StarHorse} code allow us to substantially improve the accuracy and precision over previous photo-astrometric stellar-parameter estimates. At magnitude $G=14\, (17)$, our typical precisions amount t…
We investigate the impact of combining Gaia astrometry from space with precise, high cadence OGLE photometry from the ground. For the archival event OGLE3-ULENS-PAR-02, which is likely a black hole, we simulate a realistic astrometric time-series of Gaia measurements and combine it with the real photometric data collected by the OGLE project. We predict that at the end of the nominal 5 years of the Gaia mission, for the events brighter than $G\approx15.5$ mag at the baseline, caused by objects heavier than 10 $M_{\odot}$, it will be possible to unambiguously derive masses of the lenses, with a…
Astrometric microlensing can be used to make precise measurements of the masses of lens stars that are independent of their assumed internal physics. Such direct mass measurements, obtained purely by observing the gravitational effects of the stars on external objects, are crucial for validating theoretical stellar models. Specifically, astrometric microlensing provides a channel to direct mass measurements of single stars for which so few measurements exist. To use the astrometric solutions and photometric measurements of ~1.7 billion stars from Gaia Data Release 2 to predict microlensing eve…
Astrometry is less sensitive to stellar activity than the radial velocity technique when attempting to detect Earth mass planets in the habitable zone of solar-type stars. This is due to a smaller number of physical processes affecting the signal, and a larger ratio of the amplitude of the planetary signal to the stellar signal. A few high-precision astrometric missions have therefore been proposed over the past two decades. We aim to re-estimate the detection limits in astrometry for the nearby stars which are the main targets proposed for the THEIA astrometric mission, the most elaborate mis…
The hunt for compact objects is on. Rarely seen massive binaries with a compact object are a crucial phase in the evolution towards compact object mergers. In Gaia data release 3 (DR3), the first Gaia astrometric orbital solutions for binary sources will become available. We investigate how many black holes (BH) with massive main-sequence dwarf companions (OB+BH binaries) are expected to be detected as binaries in DR3 and at the end of the nominal 5-yr mission (DR4). We estimate the fraction of identifiable OB+BH binaries and discuss the distributions of the masses of both components and the o…
In this paper we develop a differential astrometric framework that is appropriate for a scanning space satellite such as Gaia. We apply it to the first of the GAREQ fields, which is the fruit of dedicated efforts within the Gaia project focused on measuring the relativistic deflection of light close to Jupiter's limb. This provides a preliminary assessment of: a) the observability of the relativistic deflection of light close to Jupiter, and, b) Gaia's astrometric capabilities under extremely difficult conditions such as those around a bright extended object. Inputs to our differential astrome…
Tycho-Gaia Astrometric Solution (TGAS) parallax data are used to determine absolute magnitudes $M_V$ for 318 W~UMa-type (EW) contact binary stars. A very steep (slope $\simeq -9$), single-parameter ($\log{P}$), linear calibration can be used to predict $M_V$ to about 0.1 -- 0.3 mag over the whole range of accessible orbital period, $0.22\!<\!P\!<\!0.88$ days. A similar calibration for the most common systems with $0.275\!<\!P\!<\!0.575$ days predicts $M_V$ values to about 0.06 -- 0.16 mag. For orbital period values both shorter and longer than the central range, the period dependence is respec…
We analyzed the frequency domain of time series of simulated ZZ Ceti light-curves to investigate the detectability and period recovery performance of short period variables (periods < 2 hours) for the Gaia mission. In our analysis, first we used a non-linear ZZ Ceti light-curves simulator code to simulate the variability of ZZ Ceti stars (we assumed stationary power spectra over five years). Second we used the Gaia nominal scanning law and the expected photometric precision of Gaia to simulate ZZ Ceti time series with Gaia's time sampling and photometric errors. Then we performed a Fourier ana…
Context: The current sample of known brown dwarfs (BDs) around FGK-stars is only of the order of a hundred. The ongoing ESA mission Gaia has already collected its nominal 5 yr of mission data and might operate up to 10 yr. Aims: Using detailed simulations, we estimate the number of BDs that could be discovered by Gaia astrometry, radial velocity, and photometric transits around main sequence (V) and subgiants (IV) FGK host stars for a 5 and 10-yr mission. Methods: Using a robust $Δχ^2$ statistic we analyse the BD companion detectability from the Besançon Galaxy population synthesis model compl…
