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arXiv 2511.00935econ.GNq-fin.EC
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公共基础设施投资用于太空市场发展

Public Infrastructure Investments for Space Market Development

Rational Futures（理性未来）

Akhil Rao

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AI总结：

本文提出一个图形框架，用于分析公共基础设施投资对航天市场发展的影响，通过案例研究展示共享基础设施如何提升行业利润并减少损失。

摘要：

先进的航天技术系统通常面临高昂的固定成本，只能满足有限的非政府需求，并显著受到非市场动机的影响。尽管增加的创业活动和国家在航天领域的雄心促使公共航天机构的规划者围绕此类系统开发市场，但正是使最近航天经济快速增长的因素也挑战了规划者开发和维持航天相关商品和服务市场的努力。我提出一个图形框架，用于可视化市场能维持的竞争对手数量作为行业成本结构函数；政府支持在直接采购、直接投资和共享基础设施方面的分布；以及非政府需求的规模。基于公共物品理论，该框架展示了在共享基础设施上投入的边际资金可以创造非排他性效益，从而每美元支持更多的竞争对手，比直接采购或补贴更有效。我通过一个受NASA商业低地球轨道目的地计划启发的简化应用来展示该框架。在与公共数据一致的成本和需求条件下，独立站每年产生行业损失3.55亿美元，而共享核心基础设施使行业每年利润达到1.54亿美元。我还概述了未来关于公共投资和先进科技市场发展战略的研究关键方向。

英文摘要：

Advanced space technology systems often face high fixed costs, can serve limited non-government demand, and are significantly driven by non-market motivations. While increased entrepreneurial activity and national ambitions in space have encouraged planners at public space agencies to develop markets around such systems, the very factors that make the recent growth of the space economy so remarkable also challenge planners' efforts to develop and sustain markets for space-related goods and services. I propose a graphical framework to visualize the number of competitors a market can sustain as a function of the industry's cost structure; the distribution of government support across direct purchases, direct investments, and shared infrastructure; and the magnitude of non-government demand. Building on public goods theory, the framework shows how marginal dollars invested in shared infrastructure can create non-rival benefits supporting more competitors per dollar than direct purchases or subsidies. I demonstrate the framework with a stylized application inspired by NASA's Commercial LEO Destinations program. Under cost and demand conditions consistent with public data, independent stations generate industry-wide losses of \$355 million annually, while shared core infrastructure enables industry-wide profits of \$154 million annually. I also outline key directions for future research on public investment and market development strategies for advanced technologies.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。

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