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arXiv 2502.11331stat.MEcs.LGstat.ML
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基于核岭回归的条件平均处理效应迁移学习

Transfer Learning of CATE with Kernel Ridge Regression

Columbia University(哥伦比亚大学);Purdue University(普渡大学);Peking University Health Science Center(北京大学医学部);Beijing International Center for Mathematical Research, Peking University(北京大学北京国际数学研究中心)

Seok-Jin Kim, Hongjie Liu, Molei Liu, Kaizheng Wang

AI总结:

该研究针对CATE迁移学习中重叠不足问题,提出基于KRR的重叠自适应方法,经理论推导和数值实验证实其在有限样本下效率更高、适应性更强,且在真实数据集上表现优越。

摘要:

数据的激增激发了人们对利用一项研究的发现来估计不同目标人群处理效应的浓厚兴趣,而无需直接观测其结果。然而,迁移学习过程常因协变量偏移以及(i)源人群与目标人群、(ii)源人群内处理组与对照组之间的重叠度不足而受阻。我们提出一种采用核岭回归(KRR)的重叠自适应条件平均处理效应(CATE)迁移学习新方法。该方法将带标签的源数据划分为两个子集:第一个子集用于基于回归调整和伪结果训练候选CATE模型;第二个子集结合无标签目标数据,采用另一种基于伪结果的策略选择最优模型。我们通过严格的非渐近均方误差(MSE)界为该方法提供理论依据,强调其对弱重叠和CATE函数复杂度的适应性。大量数值研究证实,该方法在有限样本下的效率和适应性更优。最后,我们在两个真实世界数据集上验证了该方法的有效性和优越性。

英文摘要:

The proliferation of data has sparked significant interest in leveraging findings from one study to estimate treatment effects in a different target population without direct outcome observations. However, the transfer learning process is frequently hindered by substantial covariate shift and limited overlap between (i) the source and target populations, as well as (ii) the treatment and control groups within the source. We propose a novel method for overlap-adaptive transfer learning of conditional average treatment effect (CATE) using kernel ridge regression (KRR). Our approach involves partitioning the labeled source data into two subsets. The first one is used to train candidate CATE models based on regression adjustment and pseudo-outcomes. An optimal model is then selected using the second subset and unlabeled target data, employing another pseudo-outcome-based strategy. We provide a theoretical justification for our method through sharp non-asymptotic MSE bounds, highlighting its adaptivity to both weak overlaps and the complexity of the CATE function. Extensive numerical studies confirm that our method achieves superior finite-sample efficiency and adaptability. We conclude by demonstrating the effectiveness and superiority of our approach on two real-world datasets.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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