Nowcasting Solar Energetic Particle Events for Mars Missions
Jan Leo Löwe, Salman Khaksarighiri, Robert F. Wimmer-Schweingruber, Donald M. Hassler, Bent Ehresmann, Jingnan Guo, Günther Reitz, Thomas Berger, Daniel Matthiä… 展开作者
Jan Leo Löwe, Salman Khaksarighiri, Robert F. Wimmer-Schweingruber, Donald M. Hassler, Bent Ehresmann, Jingnan Guo, Günther Reitz, Thomas Berger, Daniel Matthiä, Cary Zeitlin, Sven Löffner
In addition to the omnipresent Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs), sudden solar energetic particle (SEP) events present considerable health hazards for manned space missions. These events not only contribute to an increased long-term cancer risk, but can, in extreme cases, cause acute radiation syndromes. Forecasting their imminent occurrence could significantly reduce radiation exposure by warning astronauts to move to shelter. However, all currently available tools are primarily designed for the Earth or Earth-Moon system, which limits their applicability to future Mars missions. To address this, we developed a nowcasting system for SEP events applicable in deep space and on the Martian surface, which serves as a reliable last-resort backup when forecasts fail. The methodology of this system is based on dose rates measured by the Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD) onboard the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), which recorded 5 SEP events during the seven-month flight to Mars and 16 since its landing on Mars on August 6, 2012. An SEP event is triggered, and an astronaut is warned as soon as dose rates exceed the omnipresent background level by at least 25%. This approach suggests that our system can provide astronauts with at least 30 minutes to avoid both peak radiation exposure and the majority of the cumulative dose from SEP events. Our nowcasting system is robust, easily implementable in real-life scenarios, and achieves a near-zero false alarm rate both in deep space and on the Martian surface.
August 1 to November 15, 2016 period was characterized by the presence of Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) and a few weak Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in the heliosphere. In this study we show recurrent energetic electron and proton enhancements observed near Earth (1 AU) and Mars (1.43-1.38 AU) during this period. The observations near Earth are using data from instruments aboard ACE, SOHO, and SDO whereas those near Mars are by the SEP, SWIA, and MAG instruments aboard MAVEN. During this period, the energetic electron fluxes observed near Earth and Mars showed prominent periodic enhanc…
Solar energetic particles (SEPs) associated with flares and/or coronal mass ejection (CME)-driven shocks can impose acute radiation hazards to space explorations. To measure energetic particles in near-Mars space, the Mars Energetic Particle Analyzer (MEPA) instrument onboard China's Tianwen-1 (TW-1) mission was designed. Here, we report the first MEPA measurements of the widespread SEP event occurring on 29 November 2020 when TW-1 was in transit to Mars. This event occurred when TW-1 and Earth were magnetically well connected, known as the Hohmann-Parker effect, thus offering a rare opportuni…
A potential crewed mission to Mars would require us to solve a number of problems, including how to protect astronauts against the devastating effects of energetic charged particles from Solar and Galactic sources. The radiation environment on Mars is of particular interest, since maintaining optimal absorbed doses by astronauts is crucial to their survival. Here, we give an overview of the conditions on Mars, as determined by theoretical models and in-situ measurements, and present the main proposed strategies to mitigate radiation exposure while on Mars. Specifically, we focus on the passive…
On September 10 2017, a fast coronal mass ejection (CME) erupted from the active region (AR) 12673, leading to a ground level enhancement (GLE) event at Earth. Using the 2D improved Particle Acceleration and Transport in the Heliosphere (iPATH) model, we model the large solar energetic particle (SEP) event of 10 September 2017 observed at Earth, Mars and STEREO-A. Based on observational evidence,we assume that the CME-driven shock experienced a large lateral expansion shortly after the eruption, which is modelled by a double Gaussian velocity profile in this simulation. We use the in-situ shoc…
The dearth of observations between 1 au and 3 au limits our understanding of energetic particle acceleration processes in interplanetary space. We present the first-of-their-kind observations of the energetic particle acceleration in a Corotating Interaction Region (CIR) using data from two vantage points, 1 au (near Earth) and 1.5 au (near Mars). The CIR event of June 2015 was observed by the particle detectors aboard the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite as well as the SEP (Solar Energetic Particle) instrument aboard the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) spacecraft s…
The Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD) instrument onboard the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission's Curiosity rover has been measuring galactic cosmic rays (GCR) as well as solar energetic particles (SEP) on the surface of Mars for more than 6 years since its landing in August 2012. The observations include a large number of Forbush decreases (FD) caused by interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and/or their associated shocks shielding away part of the GCR particles with their turbulent and enhanced magnetic fields while passing Mars. This study combines MSL/RAD FD measurements and r…
A new GEANT4 particle transport model -- the Atmospheric Radiation Interaction Simulator (AtRIS, Banjac et al. 2018a. J. Geophys. Res.) -- has been recently developed in order to model the interaction of radiation with planets. The upcoming instrumentational advancements in the exoplanetary science, in particular transit spectroscopy capabilities of missions like JWST and E-ELT, have motivated the development of a particle transport code with a focus on providing the necessary flexibility in planet specification (atmosphere and soil geometry and composition, tidal locking, oceans, clouds, etc.…
Mars Exospheric Neutral Composition Analyzer (MENCA) of Mars Orbiter Mission (MOM) measures the \emph{in-situ} neutral upper atmospheric constituents of Mars. Martian lower atmosphere predominated by the presence of $CO_2$ which photo-dissociates into atomic oxygen ($O$) in higher altitudes much near the exobase. Atomic $O$ plays a significant role in invoking the stronger presence of $O_2^+$ in the Martian ionosphere. Primary photo-dissociative species $CO_{2}$, crossover their neutral abundance with atomic $O$ in the collisionless heterogenous atmosphere with varying local solar conditions. …
The raw exospheric composition data of Mars for the period September 2014 to October 2015 has been retrieved and analysed using the observations carried out by Mars Exospheric Neutral Composition Analyser (MENCA) payload on-board the Mars Orbiter Mission (MOM) launched by India on 5 November 2013. The state parameters viz. latitude, longitude, altitude and solar zenith angle coverage of the partial pressures of different exospheric constituents are determined and assigned to enrich the usefulness of data with orbit-wise assimilation particularly between 250 and 500 km altitude range of main in…
It is extremely important to understand and model the Martian radiation environment in preparation for future human missions to Mars, especially during extreme and elevated conditions such as an intense solar energetic particle (SEP) event. Such events may enhance the radiation level drastically and should be forecasted as soon as possible to prevent severe damage to humans and equipment. Besides, the omnipresent galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) also contribute significantly to the radiation in space and on the surface of Mars and may cause long-term damages to current and future missions. Based on…
For future human missions to Mars, it is important to study the surface radiation environment during extreme and elevated conditions. In the long term, it is mainly Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) modulated by solar activity that contributes to the radiation on the surface of Mars, but intense solar energetic particle (SEP) events may induce acute health effects. Such events may enhance the radiation level significantly and should be detected as immediately as possible to prevent severe damage to humans and equipment. However, the energetic particle environment on the Martian surface is significan…
The impact of exposure to astrophysical ionizing radiation on astronaut health is one of the main concerns in planning crewed missions to Mars. Astronauts will be exposed to energetic charged particles from Galactic and Solar origin for a prolonged period with little protection from a thin spacecraft shield in transit and from the rarefied Martian atmosphere when on the surface. Adverse impacts on astronaut health include, for example, Acute Radiation Syndrome, damage to the nervous system, and increased cancer risk. We rely on medical studies to assess the impact of enhanced radiation dose le…
Space weather observations and modeling at Mars have begun but they must be significantly increased to support the future of Human Exploration on the Red Planet. A comprehensive space weather understanding of a planet without a global magnetosphere and a thin atmosphere is very different from our situation at Earth so there is substantial fundamental research remaining. It is expected that the development of suitable models will lead to a comprehensive operational Mars space weather alert (MSWA) system that would provide rapid dissemination of information to Earth controllers, astronauts in tr…
Manned Mars missions planned in the near future of very low solar activity period and hence higher than acceptable radiation doses due mainly to the Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR), would require special techniques and technological development for maintaining good health of the astronauts. The present study is an attempt to make an assessment and characterise the coming years in terms of solar activity and space radiation environment especially due to the abundance of highly energetic heavy ions (known as HZE charged particles). These HZE particle fluxes constitute a major hazard to the astronauts…
The near-Earth energetic particle environment has been monitored since the 1970's. With the increasing importance of quantifying the radiation risk for, e.g. for the human exploration of the Moon and Mars, it is essential to continue and further improve these measurements. The Electron Proton Helium INstrument (EPHIN) on-board SOHO continually provides these data sets to the solar science and space weather communities since 1995. Here, we introduce the numerous data products developed over the years and present space weather related applications. Important design features that have led to EPHI…
The Probabilistic Solar Particle Event foRecasting (PROSPER) model predicts the probability of occurrence and the expected peak flux of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events. Predictions are derived for a set of integral proton energies (i.e. E$>$10, $>$30 and $>$100 MeV) from characteristics of solar flares (longitude, magnitude), coronal mass ejections (width, speed) and combinations of both. Herein the PROSPER model methodology for deriving the SEP event forecasts is described and the validation of the model, based on archived data, is presented for a set of case studies. The PROSPER model …
We carry out 3-D numerical simulations to assess the penetration and bombardment effects of Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs), i.e. high-energy particle bursts during large flares and superflares, on ancient and current Mars. We demonstrate that the deposition of SEPs is non-uniform at the planetary surface, and that the corresponding energy flux is lower than other sources postulated to have influenced the origin of life. Nevertheless, SEPs may have been capable of facilitating the synthesis of a wide range of vital organic molecules (e.g. nucleobases and amino acids). Owing to the relatively …
The Sun is an active star that can have a direct impact on the Earth, its magnetosphere, and the technological infrastructure on which modern society depends. Among the phenomena that drive "space weather" are fast solar wind streams and co-rotating interaction regions, solar flares, coronal mass ejections, the shocks they produce, and the energetic particles they accelerate. Radio emission from these and associated phenomena offer unique diagnostic possibilities that complement those available at other wavelengths. Here, the relevant space weather drivers are briefly described, the potential …
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are two phenomena that can cause severe space weather effects throughout the heliosphere. The evolution of CMEs, especially in terms of their magnetic structure, and the configuration of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) that influences the transport of SEPs are currently areas of active research. These two aspects are not necessarily independent of each other, especially during solar maximum when multiple eruptive events can occur close in time. Accordingly, we present the analysis of a CME that erupted on 2012 May 11 (S…
We describe the initial version of the Solar Particle Event (SPE) Threat Assessment Tool or STAT. STAT relies on elements of Corona-Heliosphere (CORHEL) and the Earth-Moon-Mars Radiation Environment Module (EMMREM), and allows users to investigate coronal mass ejection (CME) driven SPEs using coupled magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) and focused transport solutions. At the present time STAT focuses on modeling solar energetic particle (SEP) acceleration in and transport from the low corona, where the highest energy SEP events are generated. We illustrate STAT's capabilities with a model of the July 14…
The Sun, as an active star, is the driver of energetic phenomena that structure interplanetary space and affect planetary atmospheres. The effects of Space Weather on Earth and the solar system is of increasing importance as human spaceflight is preparing for lunar and Mars missions. This review is focusing on the solar perspective of the Space Weather relevant phenomena, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), flares, solar energetic particles (SEPs), and solar wind stream interaction regions (SIR). With the advent of the STEREO mission (launched in 2006), literally, new perspectives were provided tha…
Current radiobiology studies on the effects of galactic cosmic ray radiation utilize mono-energetic beams, where the projected dose for an exploration mission is given using highly-acute exposures. This methodology does not replicate the multi-ion species and energies found in the space radiation environment, nor does it reflect the low dose-rate found in interplanetary space. In radiation biology studies as well as in the assessment of health risk to astronaut crews, the differences in the biological effectiveness of different ions is primarily attributed to differences in the linear energy t…
Predictions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are a central issue in space weather forecasting. In recent years, interest in space weather predictions has expanded to include impacts at other planets beyond Earth as well as spacecraft scattered throughout the heliosphere. In this sense, the scope of space weather science now encompasses the whole heliospheric system, and multi-point measurements of solar transients can provide useful insights and validations for prediction models. In this work, we aim to analyse the whole inner heliospheric context between t…
