Multi-Source Urban Traffic Flow Forecasting with Drone and Loop Detector Data
Urban Transport Systems Laboratory (LUTS), École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL)（城市交通系统实验室（LUTS），瑞士联邦理工学院（EPFL））；Visual Intelligence for Transportation Laboratory (VITA), École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL)（交通视觉智能实验室（VITA），瑞士联邦理工学院（EPFL））
Weijiang Xiong, Robert Fonod, Alexandre Alahi, Nikolas Geroliminis
Traffic forecasting is a fundamental task in transportation research, however the scope of current research has mainly focused on a single data modality of loop detectors. Recently, the advances in Artificial Intelligence and drone technologies have made possible novel solutions for efficient, accurate and flexible aerial observations of urban traffic. As a promising traffic monitoring approach, drone-captured data can create an accurate multi-sensor mobility observatory for large-scale urban networks, when combined with existing infrastructure. Therefore, this paper investigates the problem of multi-source traffic speed prediction, simultaneously using drone and loop detector data. A simple yet effective graph-based model HiMSNet is proposed to integrate multiple data modalities and learn spatio-temporal correlations. Detailed analysis shows that predicting accurate segment-level speed is more challenging than the regional speed, especially under high-demand scenarios with heavier congestions and varying traffic dynamics. Utilizing both drone and loop detector data, the prediction accuracy can be improved compared to single-modality cases, when the sensors have lower coverages and are subject to noise. Our simulation study based on vehicle trajectories in a real urban road network has highlighted the added value of integrating drones in traffic forecasting and monitoring.
Urban flow forecasting is a challenging task, given the inherent periodic characteristics of urban flow patterns. To capture the periodicity, existing urban flow prediction approaches are often designed with closeness, period, and trend components extracted from the urban flow sequence. However, these three components are often considered separately in the prediction model. These components have not been fully explored together and simultaneously incorporated in urban flow forecasting models. We introduce a novel urban flow forecasting architecture, TERMCast. A Transformer based long-term rela…
The Pennsylvania State University（宾夕法尼亚州立大学）；University of Utah（犹他大学）
The world is increasingly urbanizing and the building industry accounts for more than 40% of energy consumption in the United States. To improve urban sustainability, many cities adopt ambitious energy-saving strategies through retrofitting existing buildings and constructing new communities. In this situation, an accurate urban building energy model (UBEM) is the foundation to support the design of energy-efficient communities. However, current UBEM are limited in their abilities to capture the inter-building interdependency due to their dynamic and non-linear characteristics. Those models ei…
FuXi-Air: Urban Air Quality Forecasting Based on Emission-Meteorology-Pollutant multimodal Machine Learning
Shanghai Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Particle Pollution and Prevention（上海大气颗粒污染与防治重点实验室）；National Observations and Research Station for Wetland Ecosystems of the Yangtze Estuary（长江入海口湿地生态系统观测与研究站）；Department of Environmental Science and Engineering（环境科学与工程学院）；Shanghai Academy of AI for Science (SAIS)（上海人工智能科学研究院）；MOE Laboratory for National Development and Intelligent Governance（教育部国家发展与智能治理实验室）；Shanghai Institute for Energy and Carbon Neutrality Strategy（上海能源与碳中和战略研究院）；IRDR ICoE on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather/Climate Extremes Impact and Public Health（国际减灾与发展研究院风险互联与治理国际联合实验室）；Shanghai Institute of Eco-Chongming (SIEC)（上海生态崇明研究院）；Shanghai Environmental Monitoring Center (SEMC)（上海市环境监测中心）
Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST)（韩国科学技术院）
Traffic forecasting problem remains a challenging task in the intelligent transportation system due to its spatio-temporal complexity. Although temporal dependency has been well studied and discussed, spatial dependency is relatively less explored due to its large variations, especially in the urban environment. In this study, a novel graph convolutional network model, Multi-Weight Traffic Graph Convolutional (MW-TGC) network, is proposed and applied to two urban networks with contrasting geometric constraints. The model conducts graph convolution operations on speed data with multi-weighted a…
Artificial Intelligence Department Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia — UNED（西班牙马德里国立远程教育大学（UNED）人工智能系）
Spatio-temporal forecasting is an open research field whose interest is growing exponentially. In this work we focus on creating a complex deep neural framework for spatio-temporal traffic forecasting with comparatively very good performance and that shows to be adaptable over several spatio-temporal conditions while remaining easy to understand and interpret. Our proposal is based on an interpretable attention-based neural network in which several modules are combined in order to capture key spatio-temporal time series components. Through extensive experimentation, we show how the results of …
The Pennsylvania State University（宾夕法尼亚州立大学）；National Center for Atmospheric Research（美国国家大气研究中心）
The rising temperature is one of the key indicators of a warming climate, and it can cause extensive stress to biological systems as well as built structures. Due to the heat island effect, it is most severe in urban environments compared to other landscapes due to the decrease in vegetation associated with a dense human-built environment. It is essential to adequately monitor the local temperature dynamics to mitigate risks associated with increasing temperatures, which can include short term strategy to protect people and animals, to long term strategy to how to build a new structure and cop…
Urban Water Consumption Forecasting Using Deep Learning and Correlated District Metered Areas
KIOS Research and Innovation Center of Excellence（KIOS研究与创新中心）；Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering（电气与计算机工程系）；University of Cyprus（塞浦路斯大学）
University of Patras（帕特雷大学）；Roma Tre University（罗马第三大学）；National Technical University of Athens（雅典国立技术大学）
Machine and statistical learning algorithms can be reliably automated and applied at scale. Therefore, they can constitute a considerable asset for designing practical forecasting systems, such as those related to urban water demand. Quantile regression algorithms are statistical and machine learning algorithms that can provide probabilistic forecasts in a straightforward way, and have not been applied so far for urban water demand forecasting. In this work, we aim to fill this gap by automating and extensively comparing several quantile-regression-based practical systems for probabilistic one…
Rethinking Urban Mobility Prediction: A Super-Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Approach
Sichuan University（四川大学）；The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou)（香港科技大学（广州））；McGill University（麦吉尔大学）；Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学）；Shanghai AI Lab（上海人工智能实验室）
Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia — UNED（西班牙国立远程教育大学）；Inverence
Air quality has become one of the main issues in public health and urban planning management, due to the proven adverse effects of high pollutant concentrations. Considering the mitigation measures that cities all over the world are taking in order to face frequent low air quality episodes, the capability of foreseeing future pollutant concentrations is of great importance. Through this paper, we present SOCAIRE, an operational tool based on a Bayesian and spatiotemporal ensemble of neural and statistical nested models. SOCAIRE integrates endogenous and exogenous information in order to predic…
Large Language Models for Mobility Analysis in Transportation Systems: A Survey on Forecasting Tasks
University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）；University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；Princeton University（普林斯顿大学）；The University of Arizona（亚利桑那大学）；University of South California（南加利福尼亚大学）；Duke Kunshan University（昆山杜克大学）
DSFNet: Learning Dual-Domain Spectral Operators for Multi-Modality Spatio-Temporal Forecasting in Urban Transportation Systems
Southeast University（东南大学）；Jiangsu Province Collaborative Innovation Center of Modern Urban Traffic Technologies（江苏省现代城市交通技术协同创新中心）；City University of Hong Kong（香港城市大学）；School of Mathematics, Southeast University（东南大学数学学院）；Systems Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences（波兰科学院系统研究所）；Luoyang Normal University（洛阳师范学院）；Purple Mountain Laboratories（紫金山实验室）；AGH University of Krakow（AGH科技大学）
Sharif University of Technology（谢里夫理工大学）；Institute of Science and Technology Austria (IST Austria)（奥地利科学技术研究所（IST Austria））
We introduce a spatio-temporal convolutional neural network model for trajectory forecasting from visual sources. Applied in an auto-regressive way it provides an explicit probability distribution over continuations of a given initial trajectory segment. We discuss it in relation to (more complicated) existing work and report on experiments on two standard datasets for trajectory forecasting: MNISTseq and Stanford Drones, achieving results on-par with or better than previous methods.
LSTM-Based Forecasting and Analysis of EV Charging Demand in a Dense Urban Campus
Electrical and Electronic Engineering Department, California State University-Sacramento（电气与电子工程系，加州州立大学萨克拉门托分校）；Electrical and Electronic Engineering Department, University of California, Riverside（电气与电子工程系，加州大学河滨分校）；Computer Science Department, California State University, Northridge（计算机科学系，加州州立大学北岭分校）；Computer Engineering Department, California State University, Northridge（计算机工程系，加州州立大学北岭分校）
本文提出一种结合插值、归一化与特征提取的 LSTM 充电负荷预测框架，可在日、周、月尺度上准确预测多地点 EV 充电需求，并支持不同部署场景。
TRIZ Method for Urban Building Energy Optimization: GWO-SARIMA-LSTM Forecasting model
Purdue University（普渡大学）；George Washington University（乔治·华盛顿大学）；University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）；Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）；Koforidua Technical University（科福里杜亚技术大学）
Tackling air pollution is an imperative problem in South Korea, especially in urban areas, over the last few years. More specially, South Korea has joined the ranks of the world's most polluted countries alongside with other Asian capitals, such as Beijing or Delhi. Much research is being conducted in environmental science to evaluate the dangerous impact of particulate matters on public health. Besides that, deterministic models of air pollutant behavior are also generated; however, this is both complex and often inaccurate. On the contrary, deep recurrent neural network reveals potent potent…
Automated vehicles rely heavily on data-driven methods, especially for complex urban environments. Large datasets of real world measurement data in the form of road user trajectories are crucial for several tasks like road user prediction models or scenario-based safety validation. So far, though, this demand is unmet as no public dataset of urban road user trajectories is available in an appropriate size, quality and variety. By contrast, the highway drone dataset (highD) has recently shown that drones are an efficient method for acquiring naturalistic road user trajectories. Compared to driv…
Interpretable PM2.5 Forecasting for Urban Air Quality: A Comparative Study of Operational Time-Series Models
School of Computing, National University of Computer & Emerging Sciences (FAST)（国家计算机与新兴科学大学（FAST）计算学院）；College of Computing and Informatics, Saudi Electronic University（沙特电子大学计算与信息学院）
Enhancing Ride-Hailing Forecasting at DiDi with Multi-View Geospatial Representation Learning from the Web
The Hong Kong University of Science；China University of Geoscience (Wuhan) Wuhan China；Didichuxing Co.\ Ltd Beijing China；China University of Geoscience (Wuhan)；Didichuxing Co.\ Ltd
Forecasting spatio-temporal correlated time series of sensor values is crucial in urban applications, such as air pollution alert, biking resource management, and intelligent transportation systems. While recent advances exploit graph neural networks (GNN) to better learn spatial and temporal dependencies between sensors, they cannot model time-evolving spatio-temporal correlation (STC) between sensors, and require pre-defined graphs, which are neither always available nor totally reliable, and target at only a specific type of sensor data at one time. Moreover, since the form of time-series f…
This work aims to investigate the use of deep neural network to detect commercial hobby drones in real-life environments by analyzing their sound data. The purpose of work is to contribute to a system for detecting drones used for malicious purposes, such as for terrorism. Specifically, we present a method capable of detecting the presence of commercial hobby drones as a binary classification problem based on sound event detection. We recorded the sound produced by a few popular commercial hobby drones, and then augmented this data with diverse environmental sound data to remedy the scarcity o…
Multi-Modal Graph Interaction for Multi-Graph Convolution Network in Urban Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Shandong University（山东大学）；Hong Kong University of Science and Technology（香港科技大学）；Didi Chuxing（滴滴出行）；Southern University of Science and Technology（南方科技大学）
This is a relevant problem because the design of most cities prioritizes the use of motorized vehicles, which has degraded air quality in recent years, having a negative effect on urban health. Modeling, predicting, and forecasting ambient air pollution is an important way to deal with this issue because it would be helpful for decision-makers and urban city planners to understand the phenomena and to take solutions. In general, data-driven methods for modeling, predicting, and forecasting outdoor pollution requires an important amount of data, which may limit their accuracy. In order to deal …
Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil（国家土木工程实验室）；INESC-ID；Instituto Superior Técnico, University of Lisbon（里斯本大学高等技术学院）
The significant increase in world population and urbanisation has brought several important challenges, in particular regarding the sustainability, maintenance and planning of urban mobility. At the same time, the exponential increase of computing capability and of available sensor and location data have offered the potential for innovative solutions to these challenges. In this work, we focus on the challenge of traffic forecasting and review the recent development and application of graph neural networks (GNN) to this problem. GNNs are a class of deep learning methods that directly process t…
STS-CCL: Spatial-Temporal Synchronous Contextual Contrastive Learning for Urban Traffic Forecasting
Zhejiang University（浙江大学）；South China University of Technology（华南理工大学）；The University of Sydney（悉尼大学）；Chongqing University（重庆大学）；Zhejiang Institute of Industry and Information Technology（浙江工业信息技术研究院）
