We address the challenge of conducting inference for a categorical treatment effect related to a binary outcome variable while taking into account high-dimensional baseline covariates. The conventional technique used to establish orthogonality for the treatment effect from nuisance variables in continuous cases is inapplicable in the context of binary treatment. To overcome this obstacle, an orthogonal score tailored specifically to this scenario is formulated which is based on a variance-weighted projection. Additionally, a novel Bayesian framework is proposed to facilitate valid inference for the desired low-dimensional parameter within the complex framework of high-dimensional logistic regression. We provide uniform convergence results, affirming the validity of credible intervals derived from the posterior distribution. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through comprehensive simulation studies and real data analysis.
An integration of decision trees into latent class modeling with covariates
National Institute for Research in Digital Science and Technology (Inria)（数字科学与技术国家研究院）；Department of Methodology and Statistics, Tilburg University（蒂尔堡大学方法论与统计系）
Conditional density estimation (density regression) estimates the distribution of a response variable y conditional on covariates x. Utilizing a partition model framework, a conditional density estimation method is proposed using logistic Gaussian processes. The partition is created using a Voronoi tessellation and is learned from the data using a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is made possible through a Laplace approximation on the latent variables of the logistic Gaussian process model. This approximation marginalizes the parameters…
We consider Bayesian logistic regression models with group-structured covariates. In high-dimensional settings, it is often assumed that only small portion of groups are significant, thus consistent group selection is of significant importance. While consistent frequentist group selection methods have been proposed, theoretical properties of Bayesian group selection methods for logistic regression models have not been investigated yet. In this paper, we consider a hierarchical group spike and slab prior for logistic regression models in high-dimensional settings. Under mild conditions, we esta…
We consider the problem of spatially dependent areal data, where for each area independent observations are available, and propose to model the density of each area through a finite mixture of Gaussian distributions. The spatial dependence is introduced via a novel joint distribution for a collection of vectors in the simplex, that we term logisticMCAR. We show that salient features of the logisticMCAR distribution can be described analytically, and that a suitable augmentation scheme based on the Pólya-Gamma identity allows to derive an efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. When compa…
This paper describes a method for a model-based analysis of clinical safety data called multivariate Bayesian logistic regression (MBLR). Parallel logistic regression models are fit to a set of medically related issues, or response variables, and MBLR allows information from the different issues to "borrow strength" from each other. The method is especially suited to sparse response data, as often occurs when fine-grained adverse events are collected from subjects in studies sized more for efficacy than for safety investigations. A combined analysis of data from multiple studies can be perform…
When the difference between treatments in a clinical trial is estimated by a difference in means, then it is well known that randomization ensures unbiassed estimation, even if no account is taken of important baseline covariates. However, when the treatment effect is assessed by other summaries, e.g. by an odds ratio if the outcome is binary, then bias can arise if some covariates are omitted, regardless of the use of randomization for treatment allocation or the size of the trial. We present accurate closed-form approximations for this asymptotic bias when important Normally distributed cova…
Scalable Logistic Gaussian Process Density Regression with Kinetic Langevin Sampling
Nanyang Technological University（南洋理工大学）；Eötvös Loránd University (ELTE)（厄特沃什·罗兰大学（ELTE））；HUN-REN Institute for Computer Science and Control (SZTAKI)（匈牙利国家研究网络计算机科学与控制研究所（SZTAKI））
This paper considers the problem of mismeasured categorical covariates in the context of regression modeling; if unaccounted for, such misclassification is known to result in misestimation of model parameters. Here, we exploit the fact that explicitly modeling covariate misclassification leads to a mixture representation. Assuming common parametric families for the mixture components, and assuming that the misclassification occurrence is independent of the response variable, the mixture representation permits model parameters to be identified even when misclassification probabilities are unkno…
The logistic specification has been used extensively in non-Bayesian statistics to model the dependence of discrete outcomes on the values of specified covariates. Because the likelihood function is globally weakly concave estimation by maximum likelihood is generally straightforward even in commonly arising applications with scores or hundreds of parameters. In contrast Bayesian inference has proven awkward, requiring normal approximations to the likelihood or specialized adaptations of existing Markov chain Monte Carlo and data augmentation methods. This paper approaches Bayesian inference i…
Covariate Informed Identification of Heterogeneity and Outliers in Longitudinal Data
University of Louisville（路易斯维尔大学）；Case Western Reserve University（凯斯西储大学）；Mass General Brigham, Harvard Medical School（麻省总医院布里格姆医院，哈佛医学院）；University of Missouri（密苏里大学）
Logistic lasso regression with nearest neighbors for gradient-based dimension reduction
University of Oslo（奥斯陆大学）；CREST, ENSAI, University of Rennes（法国国家经济统计与分析中心，雷恩高等应用统计学院，雷恩大学）；Univ Angers, CNRS, LAREMA, SFR MATHSTIC（昂热大学，法国国家科学研究中心，拉雷马实验室，数学科学联合研究服务）
With rapid development of techniques to measure brain activity and structure, statistical methods for analyzing modern brain-imaging play an important role in the advancement of science. Imaging data that measure brain function are usually multivariate time series and are heterogeneous across both imaging sources and subjects, which lead to various statistical and computational challenges. In this paper, we propose a group-based method to cluster a collection of multivariate time series via a Bayesian mixture of smoothing splines. Our method assumes each multivariate time series is a mixture o…
The model evidence is a vital quantity in the comparison of statistical models under the Bayesian paradigm. This paper presents a review of commonly used methods. We outline some guidelines and offer some practical advice. The reviewed methods are compared for two examples; non-nested Gaussian linear regression and covariate subset selection in logistic regression.
Logistic regression has been widely applied in the field of biomedical research for a long time. In some applications, covariates of interest have a natural structure, such as being a matrix, at the time of collection. The rows and columns of the covariate matrix then have certain physical meanings, and they must contain useful information regarding the response. If we simply stack the covariate matrix as a vector and fit the conventional logistic regression model, relevant information can be lost, and the problem of inefficiency will arise. Motivated from these reasons, we propose in this pap…
Consider a logistic partially linear model, in which the logit of the mean of a binary response is related to a linear function of some covariates and a nonparametric function of other covariates. We derive simple, doubly robust estimators of coefficient for the covariates in the linear component of the partially linear model. Such estimators remain consistent if either a nuisance model is correctly specified for the nonparametric component, or another nuisance model is correctly specified for the means of the covariates of interest given other covariates and the response at a fixed value. In …
Large-sample properties of multiple imputation estimators for parameters of logistic regression with covariates missing at random separately or simultaneously
研究两组分类协变量分别或同时 MAR 时 logistic 回归 MI 估计量的渐近性质，提出修正方差估计，并通过模拟和逢甲夜市调查数据验证其优势。
Logistic regression is a common classification method in supervised learning. Surprisingly, there are very few solutions for performing logistic regression with missing values in the covariates. We suggest a complete approach based on a stochastic approximation version of the EM algorithm to do statistical inference with missing values including the estimation of the parameters and their variance, derivation of confidence intervals and a model selection procedure. We also tackle the problem of prediction for new observations (on a test set) with missing covariate data. The methodology is compu…
Doubly-intractable posterior distributions arise in many applications of statistics concerned with discrete and dependent data, including physics, spatial statistics, machine learning, the social sciences, and other fields. A specific example is psychometrics, which has adapted high-dimensional Ising models from machine learning, with a view to studying the interactions among binary item responses in educational assessments. To estimate high-dimensional Ising models from educational assessment data, $\ell_1$-penalized nodewise logistic regressions have been used. Theoretical results in high-di…
We study the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) in high-dimensional logistic models, extending the recent results from Sur (2019) to the case where the Gaussian covariates may have an arbitrary covariance structure. We prove that in the limit of large problems holding the ratio between the number $p$ of covariates and the sample size $n$ constant, every finite list of MLE coordinates follows a multivariate normal distribution. Concretely, the $j$th coordinate $\hat β_j$ of the MLE is asymptotically normally distributed with mean $α_\star β_j$ and standard deviation $σ_\star/…
Concerns have been expressed over the validity of statistical inference under covariate-adaptive randomization despite the extensive use in clinical trials. In the literature, the inferential properties under covariate-adaptive randomization have been mainly studied for continuous responses; in particular, it is well known that the usual two sample t-test for treatment effect is typically conservative, in the sense that the actual test size is smaller than the nominal level. This phenomenon of invalid tests has also been found for generalized linear models without adjusting for the covariates …
Complete randomization balances covariates on average, but covariate imbalance often exists in finite samples. Rerandomization can ensure covariate balance in the realized experiment by discarding the undesired treatment assignments. Many field experiments in public health and social sciences assign the treatment at the cluster level due to logistical constraints or policy considerations. Moreover, they are frequently combined with rerandomization in the design stage. We refer to cluster rerandomization as a cluster-randomized experiment compounded with rerandomization to balance covariates at…
Logistic regression is a natural and simple tool to understand how covariates contribute to explain the topology of a binary network. Once the model fitted, the practitioner is interested in the goodness-of-fit of the regression in order to check if the covariates are sufficient to explain the whole topology of the network and, if they are not, to analyze the residual structure. To address this problem, we introduce a generic model that combines logistic regression with a network-oriented residual term. This residual term takes the form of the graphon function of a W-graph. Using a variational…
It is of particular interests in many application fields to draw doubly robust inference of a logistic partially linear model with the predictor specified as combination of a targeted low dimensional linear parametric function and a nuisance nonparametric function. In recent, Tan (2019) proposed a simple and flexible doubly robust estimator for this purpose. They introduced the two nuisance models, i.e. nonparametric component in the logistic model and conditional mean of the exposure covariates given the other covariates and fixed response, and specified them as fixed dimensional parametric m…
This paper concerns robust inference on average treatment effects following model selection. In the selection on observables framework, we show how to construct confidence intervals based on a doubly-robust estimator that are robust to model selection errors and prove that they are valid uniformly over a large class of treatment effect models. The class allows for multivalued treatments with heterogeneous effects (in observables), general heteroskedasticity, and selection amongst (possibly) more covariates than observations. Our estimator attains the semiparametric efficiency bound under appro…
Markov Chains with variable length are useful stochastic models for data compression that avoid the curse of dimensionality faced by that full Markov Chains. In this paper we introduce a Variable Length Markov Chain whose transition probabilities depend not only on the state history but also on exogenous covariates through a logistic model. The goal of the proposed procedure is to obtain the context of the process, that is, the history of the process that is relevant for predicting the next state, together with the estimated coefficients corresponding to the significant exogenous variables. We…
This paper rigorously establishes that the existence of the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) in high-dimensional logistic regression models with Gaussian covariates undergoes a sharp `phase transition'. We introduce an explicit boundary curve $h_{\text{MLE}}$, parameterized by two scalars measuring the overall magnitude of the unknown sequence of regression coefficients, with the following property: in the limit of large sample sizes $n$ and number of features $p$ proportioned in such a way that $p/n \rightarrow κ$, we show that if the problem is sufficiently high dimensional in the sense tha…
In many problems involving generalized linear models, the covariates are subject to measurement error. When the number of covariates p exceeds the sample size n, regularized methods like the lasso or Dantzig selector are required. Several recent papers have studied methods which correct for measurement error in the lasso or Dantzig selector for linear models in the p>n setting. We study a correction for generalized linear models based on Rosenbaum and Tsybakov's matrix uncertainty selector. By not requiring an estimate of the measurement error covariance matrix, this generalized matrix uncerta…
With a large number of baseline covariates, we propose a new semi-parametric modeling strategy for heterogeneous treatment effect estimation and individualized treatment selection, which are two major goals in personalized medicine. We achieve the first goal through estimating a covariate-specific treatment effect (CSTE) curve modeled as an unknown function of a weighted linear combination of all baseline covariates. The weight or the coefficient for each covariate is estimated by fitting a sparse semi-parametric logistic single-index coefficient model. The CSTE curve is estimated by a spline-…
Construction of valid statistical inference for estimators based on data-driven selection has received a lot of attention in the recent times. Berk et al. (2013) is possibly the first work to provide valid inference for Gaussian homoscedastic linear regression with fixed covariates under arbitrary covariate/variable selection. The setting is unrealistic and is extended by Bachoc et al. (2016) by relaxing the distributional assumptions. A major drawback of the aforementioned works is that the construction of valid confidence regions is computationally intensive. In this paper, we first prove th…
In sequential experiments, subjects become available for the study over a period of time, and covariates are often measured at the time of arrival. We consider the setting where the sample size is fixed but covariate values are unknown until subjects enrol. Given a model for the outcome, a sequential optimal design approach can be used to allocate treatments to minimize the variance of the treatment effect. We extend existing optimal design methodology so it can be used within a nonmyopic framework, where treatment allocation for the current subject depends not only on the treatments and covar…
