We study the analysis of all the movements of the population on the basis of their mobility from one node to another, to observe, measure, and predict the impact of traffic according to this mobility. The frequency of congestion on roads directly or indirectly impacts our economic or social welfare. Our work focuses on exploring some machine learning methods to predict (with a certain probability) traffic in a multimodal transportation network from population mobility data. We analyze the observation of the influence of people's movements on the transportation network and make a likely prediction of congestion on the network based on this observation (historical basis).
University of Southern California（南加州大学）；California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院）
Spatiotemporal forecasting has various applications in neuroscience, climate and transportation domain. Traffic forecasting is one canonical example of such learning task. The task is challenging due to (1) complex spatial dependency on road networks, (2) non-linear temporal dynamics with changing road conditions and (3) inherent difficulty of long-term forecasting. To address these challenges, we propose to model the traffic flow as a diffusion process on a directed graph and introduce Diffusion Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network (DCRNN), a deep learning framework for traffic forecasting …
University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；INRIX, Inc.（因瑞克斯公司）
Traffic forecasting is a particularly challenging application of spatiotemporal forecasting, due to the time-varying traffic patterns and the complicated spatial dependencies on road networks. To address this challenge, we learn the traffic network as a graph and propose a novel deep learning framework, Traffic Graph Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (TGC-LSTM), to learn the interactions between roadways in the traffic network and forecast the network-wide traffic state. We define the traffic graph convolution based on the physical network topology. The relationship between t…
Beihang University（北京航空航天大学）；University of Washington（华盛顿大学）
Accurate and reliable traffic forecasting for complicated transportation networks is of vital importance to modern transportation management. The complicated spatial dependencies of roadway links and the dynamic temporal patterns of traffic states make it particularly challenging. To address these challenges, we propose a new capsule network (CapsNet) to extract the spatial features of traffic networks and utilize a nested LSTM (NLSTM) structure to capture the hierarchical temporal dependencies in traffic sequence data. A framework for network-level traffic forecasting is also proposed by sequ…
Argonne National Laboratory（阿贡国家实验室）；Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory（劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室）
Traffic forecasting approaches are critical to developing adaptive strategies for mobility. Traffic patterns have complex spatial and temporal dependencies that make accurate forecasting on large highway networks a challenging task. Recently, diffusion convolutional recurrent neural networks (DCRNNs) have achieved state-of-the-art results in traffic forecasting by capturing the spatiotemporal dynamics of the traffic. Despite the promising results, however, applying DCRNNs for large highway networks still remains elusive because of computational and memory bottlenecks. We present an approach fo…
Forecasting of multivariate time-series is an important problem that has applications in traffic management, cellular network configuration, and quantitative finance. A special case of the problem arises when there is a graph available that captures the relationships between the time-series. In this paper we propose a novel learning architecture that achieves performance competitive with or better than the best existing algorithms, without requiring knowledge of the graph. The key element of our proposed architecture is the learnable fully connected hard graph gating mechanism that enables the…
Research Institute for Science and Engineering, Waseda University（早稻田大学理工学研究所）；Department of Applied Mathematics, Waseda University（早稻田大学应用数学系）
Traffic forecasting from past observed traffic data with small calculation complexity is one of important problems for planning of servers and networks. Focusing on World Wide Web (WWW) traffic as fundamental investigation, this paper would deal with Bayesian forecasting of network traffic on the time varying Poisson model from a viewpoint from statistical decision theory. Under this model, we would show that the estimated forecasting value is obtained by simple arithmetic calculation and expresses real WWW traffic well from both theoretical and empirical points of view.
Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST)（韩国科学技术院）
Traffic forecasting problem remains a challenging task in the intelligent transportation system due to its spatio-temporal complexity. Although temporal dependency has been well studied and discussed, spatial dependency is relatively less explored due to its large variations, especially in the urban environment. In this study, a novel graph convolutional network model, Multi-Weight Traffic Graph Convolutional (MW-TGC) network, is proposed and applied to two urban networks with contrasting geometric constraints. The model conducts graph convolution operations on speed data with multi-weighted a…
Accurate mobile traffic forecast is important for efficient network planning and operations. However, existing traffic forecasting models have high complexity, making the forecasting process slow and costly. In this paper, we analyze some characteristics of mobile traffic such as periodicity, spatial similarity and short term relativity. Based on these characteristics, we propose a \emph{Block Regression} ({BR}) model for mobile traffic forecasting. This model employs seasonal differentiation so as to take into account of the temporally repetitive nature of mobile traffic. One of the key featu…
Traditional neural network approaches for traffic flow forecasting are usually single task learning (STL) models, which do not take advantage of the information provided by related tasks. In contrast to STL, multitask learning (MTL) has the potential to improve generalization by transferring information in training signals of extra tasks. In this paper, MTL based neural networks are used for traffic flow forecasting. For neural network MTL, a backpropagation (BP) network is constructed by incorporating traffic flows at several contiguous time instants into an output layer. Nodes in the output …
Central South University（中南大学）；Hisense TransTech Co., Ltd.（海信网络科技股份有限公司）；Zhejiang University（浙江大学）
Traffic forecasting is a fundamental and challenging task in the field of intelligent transportation. Accurate forecasting not only depends on the historical traffic flow information but also needs to consider the influence of a variety of external factors, such as weather conditions and surrounding POI distribution. Recently, spatiotemporal models integrating graph convolutional networks and recurrent neural networks have become traffic forecasting research hotspots and have made significant progress. However, few works integrate external factors. Therefore, based on the assumption that intro…
University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；Beihang University（北京航空航天大学）；STAR Lab（STAR实验室）
With accurate and timely traffic forecasting, the impacted traffic conditions can be predicted in advance to guide agencies and residents to respond to changes in traffic patterns appropriately. However, existing works on traffic forecasting mainly relied on historical traffic patterns confining to short-term prediction, under 1 hour, for instance. To better manage future roadway capacity and accommodate social and human impacts, it is crucial to propose a flexible and comprehensive framework to predict physical-aware long-term traffic conditions for public users and transportation agencies. I…
Predicting traffic conditions is tremendously challenging since every road is highly dependent on each other, both spatially and temporally. Recently, to capture this spatial and temporal dependency, specially designed architectures such as graph convolutional networks and temporal convolutional networks have been introduced. While there has been remarkable progress in traffic forecasting, we found that deep-learning-based traffic forecasting models still fail in certain patterns, mainly in event situations (e.g., rapid speed drops). Although it is commonly accepted that these failures are due…
The increasing complexity of mobility plus the growing population in cities, together with the importance of privacy when sharing data from vehicles or any device, makes traffic forecasting that uses data from infrastructure and citizens an open and challenging task. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to deal with predictions of speed, volume, and main traffic direction, in a new aggregated way of traffic data presented as videos. The approach leverages the continuity in a sequence of frames and its dynamics, learning to predict changing areas in a low dimensional space and then, rec…
New York University Abu Dhabi（纽约大学阿布扎比分校）；New York University（纽约大学）
This paper develops a data-driven toolkit for traffic forecasting using high-resolution (a.k.a. event-based) traffic data. This is the raw data obtained from fixed sensors in urban roads. Time series of such raw data exhibit heavy fluctuations from one time step to the next (typically on the order of 0.1-1 second). Short-term forecasts (10-30 seconds into the future) of traffic conditions are critical for traffic operations applications (e.g., adaptive signal control). But traffic forecasting tools in the literature deal predominantly with 3-5 minute aggregated data, where the typical signal c…
Artificial Intelligence Department Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia — UNED（西班牙马德里国立远程教育大学（UNED）人工智能系）
Spatio-temporal forecasting is an open research field whose interest is growing exponentially. In this work we focus on creating a complex deep neural framework for spatio-temporal traffic forecasting with comparatively very good performance and that shows to be adaptable over several spatio-temporal conditions while remaining easy to understand and interpret. Our proposal is based on an interpretable attention-based neural network in which several modules are combined in order to capture key spatio-temporal time series components. Through extensive experimentation, we show how the results of …
Hainan University（海南大学）；University of Chinese Academy of Science（中国科学院大学）
Traffic flow forecasting is hot spot research of intelligent traffic system construction. The existing traffic flow prediction methods have problems such as poor stability, high data requirements, or poor adaptability. In this paper, we define the traffic data time singularity ratio in the dropout module and propose a combination prediction method based on the improved long short-term memory neural network and time series autoregressive integrated moving average model (SDLSTM-ARIMA), which is derived from the Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) model. It compares the traffic data time singularity …
University of New South Wales（新南威尔士大学）；University of Wollongong（伍伦贡大学）
In this paper, we propose a novel pipeline that leverages language foundation models for temporal sequential pattern mining, such as for human mobility forecasting tasks. For example, in the task of predicting Place-of-Interest (POI) customer flows, typically the number of visits is extracted from historical logs, and only the numerical data are used to predict visitor flows. In this research, we perform the forecasting task directly on the natural language input that includes all kinds of information such as numerical values and contextual semantic information. Specific prompts are introduced…
Peking University（北京大学）；Beijing Institute of Big Data Research（北京大数据研究院）
Timely accurate traffic forecast is crucial for urban traffic control and guidance. Due to the high nonlinearity and complexity of traffic flow, traditional methods cannot satisfy the requirements of mid-and-long term prediction tasks and often neglect spatial and temporal dependencies. In this paper, we propose a novel deep learning framework, Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks (STGCN), to tackle the time series prediction problem in traffic domain. Instead of applying regular convolutional and recurrent units, we formulate the problem on graphs and build the model with complete con…
University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；Beihang University（北京航空航天大学）
Traffic forecasting is a classical task for traffic management and it plays an important role in intelligent transportation systems. However, since traffic data are mostly collected by traffic sensors or probe vehicles, sensor failures and the lack of probe vehicles will inevitably result in missing values in the collected raw data for some specific links in the traffic network. Although missing values can be imputed, existing data imputation methods normally need long-term historical traffic state data. As for short-term traffic forecasting, especially under edge computing and online predicti…
Institute of Cartography and Geoinformation, ETH Zurich（苏黎世联邦理工学院制图与地理信息研究所）；Visual Geometry Group, University of Oxford（牛津大学视觉几何组）
The goal of the IARAI competition traffic4cast was to predict the city-wide traffic status within a 15-minute time window, based on information from the previous hour. The traffic status was given as multi-channel images (one pixel roughly corresponds to 100x100 meters), where one channel indicated the traffic volume, another one the average speed of vehicles, and a third one their rough heading. As part of our work on the competition, we evaluated many different network architectures, analyzed the statistical properties of the given data in detail, and thought about how to transform the probl…
Short-term traffic forecasting based on deep learning methods, especially recurrent neural networks (RNN), has received much attention in recent years. However, the potential of RNN-based models in traffic forecasting has not yet been fully exploited in terms of the predictive power of spatial-temporal data and the capability of handling missing data. In this paper, we focus on RNN-based models and attempt to reformulate the way to incorporate RNN and its variants into traffic prediction models. A stacked bidirectional and unidirectional LSTM network architecture (SBU-LSTM) is proposed to assi…
Advances in traffic forecasting technology can greatly impact urban mobility. In the traffic4cast competition, the task of short-term traffic prediction is tackled in unprecedented detail, with traffic volume and speed information available at 5 minute intervals and high spatial resolution. To improve generalization to unknown cities, as required in the 2021 extended challenge, we propose to predict small quadratic city sections, rather than processing a full-city-raster at once. At test time, breaking down the test data into spatially-cropped overlapping snippets improves stability and robust…
Traffic flow forecasting is challenging due to the intricate spatio-temporal correlations in traffic flow data. Existing Transformer-based methods usually treat traffic flow forecasting as multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting. However, too many sensors can cause a vector with a dimension greater than 800, which is difficult to process without information loss. In addition, these methods design complex mechanisms to capture spatial dependencies in MTS, resulting in slow forecasting speed. To solve the abovementioned problems, we propose a Fast Pure Transformer Network (FPTN) in this paper…
University of Science and Technology of China（中国科学技术大学）
In traffic forecasting, graph convolutional networks (GCNs), which model traffic flows as spatio-temporal graphs, have achieved remarkable performance. However, existing GCN-based methods heuristically define the graph structure as the physical topology of the road network, ignoring potential dependence of the graph structure over traffic data. And the defined graph structure is deterministic, which lacks investigation of uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (BSTGCN) for traffic prediction. The graph structure in our network is learned f…
Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications（北京邮电大学）；Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院计算技术研究所）；Tsinghua University（清华大学）；Auburn University（奥本大学）
Traffic forecasting is important in intelligent transportation systems of webs and beneficial to traffic safety, yet is very challenging because of the complex and dynamic spatio-temporal dependencies in real-world traffic systems. Prior methods use the pre-defined or learnable static graph to extract spatial correlations. However, the static graph-based methods fail to mine the evolution of the traffic network. Researchers subsequently generate the dynamic graph for each time slice to reflect the changes of spatial correlations, but they follow the paradigm of independently modeling spatio-te…
Traffic speed forecasting is one of the core problems in transportation systems. For a more accurate prediction, recent studies started using not only the temporal speed patterns but also the spatial information on the road network through the graph convolutional networks. Even though the road network is highly complex due to its non-Euclidean and directional characteristics, previous approaches mainly focused on modeling the spatial dependencies using the distance only. In this paper, we identify two essential spatial dependencies in traffic forecasting in addition to distance, direction and …
Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology（蔚山科学技术院）
Traffic forecasting is a challenging problem due to complex road networks and sudden speed changes caused by various events on roads. A number of models have been proposed to solve this challenging problem with a focus on learning spatio-temporal dependencies of roads. In this work, we propose a new perspective of converting the forecasting problem into a pattern matching task, assuming that large data can be represented by a set of patterns. To evaluate the validness of the new perspective, we design a novel traffic forecasting model, called Pattern-Matching Memory Networks (PM-MemNet), which…
Traffic forecasting influences various intelligent transportation system (ITS) services and is of great significance for user experience as well as urban traffic control. It is challenging due to the fact that the road network contains complex and time-varying spatial-temporal dependencies. Recently, deep learning based methods have achieved promising results by adopting graph convolutional network (GCN) to extract the spatial correlations and recurrent neural network (RNN) to capture the temporal dependencies. However, the existing methods often construct the graph only based on road network …
Simula Research Laboratory（Simula研究实验室）；University of Thessaly（色萨利大学）；University of Oslo（奥斯陆大学）；Simula Metropolitan（Simula大都会中心）
Bandwidth forecasting in Mobile Broadband (MBB) networks is a challenging task, particularly when coupled with a degree of mobility. In this work, we introduce HINDSIGHT++, an open-source R-based framework for bandwidth forecasting experimentation in MBB networks with Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) networks. We instrument HINDSIGHT++ following an Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) paradigm to first, alleviate the burden of data preprocessing, and second, enhance performance related aspects. We primarily focus on bandwidth forecasting for Fifth Generation (5G) networks. In particular, we levera…
Societe Nationale des Autoroutes du Maroc S.A（摩洛哥国家高速公路公司）
In this paper, we aim to illustrate different approaches we followed while developing a forecasting tool for highway traffic in Morocco. Two main approaches were adopted: Statistical Analysis as a step of data exploration and data wrangling. Therefore, a beta model is carried out for a better understanding of traffic behavior. Next, we moved to Machine Learning where we worked with a bunch of algorithms such as Random Forest, Artificial Neural Networks, Extra Trees, etc. yet, we were convinced that this field of study is still considered under state of the art models, so, we were also covering…
Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications（北京邮电大学）；Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院计算技术研究所）；Institute for Interdisciplinary Information Sciences (IIIS), Tsinghua University（清华大学交叉信息研究院）
Traffic forecasting is crucial for public safety and resource optimization, yet is very challenging due to three aspects: i) current existing works mostly exploit intricate temporal patterns (e.g., the short-term thunderstorm and long-term daily trends) within a single method, which fail to accurately capture spatio-temporal dependencies under different schemas; ii) the under-exploration of the graph positional encoding limit the extraction of spatial information in the commonly used full graph attention network; iii) the quadratic complexity of the full graph attention introduces heavy comput…
Graph Convolutional Network With Pattern-Spatial Interactive and Regional Awareness for Traffic Forecasting
College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Shihezi University（石河子大学机械与电子工程学院）；School of Mathematics and Computational Science, Xiangtan University（湘潭大学数学与计算机科学学院）；College of Sciences, Shihezi University（石河子大学科学学院）
As an important part of intelligent transportation systems, traffic forecasting has attracted tremendous attention from academia and industry. Despite a lot of methods being proposed for traffic forecasting, it is still difficult to model complex spatial-temporal dependency. Temporal dependency includes short-term dependency and long-term dependency, and the latter is often overlooked. Spatial dependency can be divided into two parts: distance-based spatial dependency and hidden spatial dependency. To model complex spatial-temporal dependency, we propose a novel framework for traffic forecasti…
The University of Tokyo（东京大学）；Toyota Motor Corporation（丰田汽车公司）
Traffic forecasting as a canonical task of multivariate time series forecasting has been a significant research topic in AI community. To address the spatio-temporal heterogeneity and non-stationarity implied in the traffic stream, in this study, we propose Spatio-Temporal Meta-Graph Learning as a novel Graph Structure Learning mechanism on spatio-temporal data. Specifically, we implement this idea into Meta-Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network (MegaCRN) by plugging the Meta-Graph Learner powered by a Meta-Node Bank into GCRN encoder-decoder. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation on two bench…
