多维经济复杂性与财政危机
Multidimensional Economic Complexity and Fiscal Crises
AI总结：
本研究构建涵盖贸易与研究结构的多维经济复杂性框架，基于1995-2021年230余起财政危机数据开展风险分析，发现多维度复杂性交互可显著降低财政危机概率，为政策制定提升经济韧性提供参考。
摘要：
近期研究强调了经济复杂性在缓解财政危机中的作用，其通常通过经济体的贸易结构来衡量。然而，贸易只是经济体结构的一个方面，遗漏了研究等关键创新活动。本文研究了涵盖贸易与研究结构的多维经济复杂性方法与财政不稳定性之间的关联。我们利用1995年至2021年间230多起国家财政危机的数据，采用风险持续时间分析，评估了贸易复杂性与研究复杂性的衡量指标如何共同解释危机发生的可能性。研究发现，各复杂性维度的交互作用能显著降低危机概率，而单个指标本身并非稳健的预测因子。这表明仅聚焦单一维度的经济体可能更脆弱，凸显了多领域均衡发展的重要性。这些发现为旨在提升经济韧性、缓解财政风险的政策制定者提供了宝贵见解。
英文摘要：
Recent studies highlight economic complexity's role in mitigating fiscal crises, often measured via an economy's trade structure. Trade, however, is just one facet of an economy's structure and omits critical innovative activities like research. Here, we investigate how a multidimensional approach to economic complexity-including both trade and research structures-relates to fiscal instability. By using data on over 230 national fiscal crises from 1995 to 2021 and hazard duration analysis, we assess how measures of trade and research complexity combine to explain crisis likelihood. We find that the interaction of complexity dimensions significantly reduces crisis probability, whereas individual indexes alone are not robust predictors. This suggests that economies focusing on a single dimension may be more vulnerable, thus highlighting the importance of balanced development across multiple areas. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers aiming to enhance economic resilience and mitigate fiscal risks.
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