配电电网可能成为住宅电气化的障碍
Distribution Grids May Be a Barrier To Residential Electrification
AI总结：
本研究评估美国住宅与车辆全面电气化对配电电网的影响，发现空间供暖导致需求峰值大增，需巨额电网加固成本，但需求侧管理可消除四分之三的加固成本。
摘要：
在许多场景下，用电力替代品取代化石燃料器具和车辆可以减少温室气体排放和空气污染。然而，住宅电气化也可能使电力需求超出电气基础设施的安全限制。这会增加停电风险，或者需要通常缓慢且昂贵的电网加固。在此，我们估计了在美国本土48个州的每个县实现所有住宅和个人车辆电气化对配电电网的物理和经济影响。我们发现，空间供暖是电网影响的主要驱动因素，最寒冷地区的需求峰值高达当今峰值的五倍。据估计，容纳所有住宅和个人车辆的电气化在全国范围内需要600 GW的配电电网加固，成本为3500亿至7900亿美元，即每户2800至6400美元（95%置信区间）。然而，需求侧管理可以消除四分之三的电网加固成本。
英文摘要：
Replacing fossil-fueled appliances and vehicles with electric alternatives can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution in many settings. However, residential electrification can also raise electricity demand beyond the safe limits of electrical infrastructure. This can increase the risk of blackouts or require grid reinforcement that is often slow and expensive. Here, we estimate the physical and economic impacts on distribution grids of electrifying all housing and personal vehicles in each county of the lower 48 United States. We find that space heating is the main driver of grid impacts, with the coldest regions seeing demand peaks up to five times higher than today's peaks. Accommodating electrification of all housing and personal vehicles is estimated to require 600 GW of distribution grid reinforcement nationally, at a cost of \$350 to \$790 billion, or \$2,800 to \$6,400 per household (95% confidence intervals). However, demand-side management could eliminate three-quarters of grid reinforcement costs.
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