In the ride-hailing industry, subsidies are predominantly employed to incentivize consumers to place more orders, thereby fostering market growth. Causal inference techniques are employed to estimate the consumer elasticity with different subsidy levels. However, the presence of confounding effects poses challenges in achieving an unbiased estimate of the uplift effect. We introduce a consumer subsidizing system to capture relationships between subsidy propensity and the treatment effect, which proves effective while maintaining a lightweight online environment.
University of Liège（列日大学）；Polytechnique Montréal（蒙特利尔理工学院）
In this paper, we present machine learning approaches for characterizing and forecasting the short-term demand for on-demand ride-hailing services. We propose the spatio-temporal estimation of the demand that is a function of variable effects related to traffic, pricing and weather conditions. With respect to the methodology, a single decision tree, bootstrap-aggregated (bagged) decision trees, random forest, boosted decision trees, and artificial neural network for regression have been adapted and systematically compared using various statistics, e.g. R-square, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), …
The University of Hong Kong（香港大学）；Hong Kong Baptist University（香港浸会大学）
Ride-hailing is a sustainable transportation paradigm where riders access door-to-door traveling services through a mobile phone application, which has attracted a colossal amount of usage. There are two major planning tasks in a ride-hailing system: (1) matching, i.e., assigning available vehicles to pick up the riders, and (2) repositioning, i.e., proactively relocating vehicles to certain locations to balance the supply and demand of ride-hailing services. Recently, many studies of ride-hailing planning that leverage machine learning techniques have emerged. In this article, we present a co…
Nagoya University（名古屋大学）；Didi Chuxing（滴滴出行）；Dalian University of Technology（大连理工大学）
Dynamic demand prediction is a key issue in ride-hailing dispatching. Many methods have been developed to improve the demand prediction accuracy of an increase in demand-responsive, ride-hailing transport services. However, the uncertainties in predicting ride-hailing demands due to multiscale spatiotemporal granularity, as well as the resulting statistical errors, are seldom explored. This paper attempts to fill this gap and to examine the spatiotemporal granularity effects on ride-hailing demand prediction accuracy by using empirical data for Chengdu, China. A convolutional, long short-term …
Ride-hailing is rapidly changing urban and personal transportation. Ride sharing or pooling is important to mitigate negative externalities of ride-hailing such as increased congestion and environmental impacts. However, there lacks empirical evidence on what affect trip-level sharing behavior in ride-hailing. Using a novel dataset from all ride-hailing trips in Chicago in 2019, we show that the willingness of riders to request a shared ride has monotonically decreased from 27.0% to 12.8% throughout the year, while the trip volume and mileage have remained statistically unchanged. We find that…
Chongqing University（重庆大学）；University of Notre Dame（圣母大学）
Ride-hailing demand prediction is an essential task in spatial-temporal data mining. Accurate Ride-hailing demand prediction can help to pre-allocate resources, improve vehicle utilization and user experiences. Graph Convolutional Networks (GCN) is commonly used to model the complicated irregular non-Euclidean spatial correlations. However, existing GCN-based ride-hailing demand prediction methods only assign the same importance to different neighbor regions, and maintain a fixed graph structure with static spatial relationships throughout the timeline when extracting the irregular non-Euclide…
Enhancing Ride-Hailing Forecasting at DiDi with Multi-View Geospatial Representation Learning from the Web
The Hong Kong University of Science；China University of Geoscience (Wuhan) Wuhan China；Didichuxing Co.\ Ltd Beijing China；China University of Geoscience (Wuhan)；Didichuxing Co.\ Ltd
To reduce passenger waiting time and driver search friction, ride-hailing companies need to accurately forecast spatio-temporal demand and supply-demand gap. However, due to spatio-temporal dependencies pertaining to demand and supply-demand gap in a ride-hailing system, making accurate forecasts for both demand and supply-demand gap is a difficult task. Furthermore, due to confidentiality and privacy issues, ride-hailing data are sometimes released to the researchers by removing spatial adjacency information of the zones, which hinders the detection of spatio-temporal dependencies. To that en…
As ride-hailing services become increasingly popular, being able to accurately predict demand for such services can help operators efficiently allocate drivers to customers, and reduce idle time, improve congestion, and enhance the passenger experience. This paper proposes UberNet, a deep learning Convolutional Neural Network for short-term prediction of demand for ride-hailing services. UberNet empploys a multivariate framework that utilises a number of temporal and spatial features that have been found in the literature to explain demand for ride-hailing services. The proposed model includes…
Cornell University（康奈尔大学）；The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen（香港中文大学（深圳））
Ride-hailing services, such as Didi Chuxing, Lyft, and Uber, arrange thousands of cars to meet ride requests throughout the day. We consider a Markov decision process (MDP) model of a ride-hailing service system, framing it as a reinforcement learning (RL) problem. The simultaneous control of many agents (cars) presents a challenge for the MDP optimization because the action space grows exponentially with the number of cars. We propose a special decomposition for the MDP actions by sequentially assigning tasks to the drivers. The new actions structure resolves the scalability problem and enabl…
University of California Riverside（加州大学河滨分校）；National Renewable Energy Laboratory（美国国家可再生能源实验室）
Ride-hailing services are growing rapidly and becoming one of the most disruptive technologies in the transportation realm. Accurate prediction of ride-hailing trip demand not only enables cities to better understand people's activity patterns, but also helps ride-hailing companies and drivers make informed decisions to reduce deadheading vehicle miles traveled, traffic congestion, and energy consumption. In this study, a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based deep learning model is proposed for multi-step ride-hailing demand prediction using the trip request data in Chengdu, China, offered …
The rapid growth of ride-hailing platforms has created a highly competitive market where businesses struggle to make profits, demanding the need for better operational strategies. However, real-world experiments are risky and expensive for these platforms as they deal with millions of users daily. Thus, a need arises for a simulated environment where they can predict users' reactions to changes in the platform-specific parameters such as trip fares and incentives. Building such a simulation is challenging, as these platforms exist within dynamic environments where thousands of users regularly …
College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology（国防科技大学系统工程学院）；Bristol Centre for Functional Nanomaterials, University of Bristol（布里斯托大学布里斯托功能纳米材料中心）
Urban ride-hailing demand prediction is a crucial but challenging task for intelligent transportation system construction. Predictable ride-hailing demand can facilitate more reasonable vehicle scheduling and online car-hailing platform dispatch. Conventional deep learning methods with no external structured data can be accomplished via hybrid models of CNNs and RNNs by meshing plentiful pixel-level labeled data, but spatial data sparsity and limited learning capabilities on temporal long-term dependencies are still two striking bottlenecks. To address these limitations, we propose a new virtu…
Online ride-hailing services have become a prevalent transportation system across the world. In this paper, we study a challenging problem of how to direct vacant taxis around a city such that supplies and demands can be balanced in online ride-hailing services. We design a new reward scheme that considers multiple performance metrics of online ride-hailing services. We also propose a novel deep reinforcement learning method named Deep-Q-Network with Action Mask (AM-DQN) masking off unnecessary actions in various locations such that agents can learn much faster and more efficiently. We conduct…
the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology（香港科技大学）；University of Michigan（密歇根大学）；Didi Chuxing（滴滴出行）
Ride-hailing platforms generally provide various service options to customers, such as solo ride services, shared ride services, etc. It is generally expected that demands for different service modes are correlated, and the prediction of demand for one service mode can benefit from historical observations of demands for other service modes. Moreover, an accurate joint prediction of demands for multiple service modes can help the platforms better allocate and dispatch vehicle resources. Although there is a large stream of literature on ride-hailing demand predictions for one specific service mo…
DiDi Labs（滴滴实验室）；Didi Chuxing（滴滴出行）；University of Michigan（密歇根大学）
We present a new practical framework based on deep reinforcement learning and decision-time planning for real-world vehicle repositioning on ride-hailing (a type of mobility-on-demand, MoD) platforms. Our approach learns the spatiotemporal state-value function using a batch training algorithm with deep value networks. The optimal repositioning action is generated on-demand through value-based policy search, which combines planning and bootstrapping with the value networks. For the large-fleet problems, we develop several algorithmic features that we incorporate into our framework and that we d…
Ride-hailing service is becoming a leading part in urban transportation. To improve the efficiency of ride-hailing service, accurate prediction of transportation demand is a fundamental challenge. In this paper, we tackle this problem from both aspects of network structure and data-set formulation. For network design, we propose a spatial-temporal attention multi-graph convolution network (STA-MGCN). A spatial-temporal layer in STA-MGCN is developed to capture the temporal correlations by temporal attention mechanism and temporal gate convolution, and the spatial correlations by multigraph con…
HCRide: Harmonizing Passenger Fairness and Driver Preference for Human-Centered Ride-Hailing
Department of Computer Science, Florida State University（佛罗里达州立大学计算机科学系）；Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Lehigh University（莱斯利大学计算机科学与工程系）
Short-term demand forecasting for on-demand ride-hailing services is one of the fundamental issues in intelligent transportation systems. However, previous travel demand forecasting research predominantly focused on improving prediction accuracy, ignoring fairness issues such as systematic underestimations of travel demand in disadvantaged neighborhoods. This study investigates how to measure, evaluate, and enhance prediction fairness between disadvantaged and privileged communities in spatial-temporal demand forecasting of ride-hailing services. A two-pronged approach is taken to reduce the d…
Ubiquitous mobile computing have enabled ride-hailing services to collect vast amounts of behavioral data of riders and drivers and optimize supply and demand matching in real time. While these mobility service providers have some degree of control over the market by assigning vehicles to requests, they need to deal with the uncertainty arising from self-interested driver behavior since workers are usually free to drive when they are not assigned tasks. In this work, we formulate the problem of passenger-vehicle matching in a sparsely connected graph and proposed an algorithm to derive an equi…
The University of Alabama（阿拉巴马大学）；Purdue University（普渡大学）
In a ride-hailing system, an optimal relocation of vacant vehicles can significantly reduce fleet idling time and balance the supply-demand distribution, enhancing system efficiency and promoting driver satisfaction and retention. Model-free deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has been shown to dynamically learn the relocating policy by actively interacting with the intrinsic dynamics in large-scale ride-hailing systems. However, the issues of sparse reward signals and unbalanced demand and supply distribution place critical barriers in developing effective DRL models. Conventional exploration s…
RAST-MoE-RL: A Regime-Aware Spatio-Temporal MoE Framework for Deep Reinforcement Learning in Ride-Hailing
Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；Tongji University（同济大学）；University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；McGill University（麦吉尔大学）；Northeastern University（东北大学）
A fundamental question in any peer-to-peer ride-sharing system is how to, both effectively and efficiently, meet the request of passengers to balance the supply and demand in real time. On the passenger side, traditional approaches focus on pricing strategies by increasing the probability of users' call to adjust the distribution of demand. However, previous methods do not take into account the impact of changes in strategy on future supply and demand changes, which means drivers are repositioned to different destinations due to passengers' calls, which will affect the driver's income for a pe…
Didi Chuxing（滴滴出行）；Beihang University（北京航空航天大学）；University of Michigan（密歇根大学）
Large ride-hailing platforms, such as DiDi, Uber and Lyft, connect tens of thousands of vehicles in a city to millions of ride demands throughout the day, providing great promises for improving transportation efficiency through the tasks of order dispatching and vehicle repositioning. Existing studies, however, usually consider the two tasks in simplified settings that hardly address the complex interactions between the two, the real-time fluctuations between supply and demand, and the necessary coordinations due to the large-scale nature of the problem. In this paper we propose a unified valu…
Beihang University（北京航空航天大学）；The University of Queensland（昆士兰大学）；Didi Chuxing（滴滴出行）
In recent years, online ride-hailing platforms have become an indispensable part of urban transportation. After a passenger is matched up with a driver by the platform, both the passenger and the driver have the freedom to simply accept or cancel a ride with one click. Hence, accurately predicting whether a passenger-driver pair is a good match turns out to be crucial for ride-hailing platforms to devise instant order assignments. However, since the users of ride-hailing platforms consist of two parties, decision-making needs to simultaneously account for the dynamics from both the driver and …
The growth of autonomous vehicles, ridesharing systems, and self driving technology will bring a shift in the way ride hailing platforms plan out their services. However, these advances in technology coupled with road congestion, environmental concerns, fuel usage, vehicles emissions, and the high cost of the vehicle usage have brought more attention to better utilize the use of vehicles and their capacities. In this paper, we propose a novel multi-hop ride-sharing (MHRS) algorithm that uses deep reinforcement learning to learn optimal vehicle dispatch and matching decisions by interacting wit…
LLM-ODDR: A Large Language Model Framework for Joint Order Dispatching and Driver Repositioning
Thrust of Artificial Intelligence, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou)（人工智能前沿技术 thrust，香港科学与技术大学（广州））；Department of Aeronautical and Aviation Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University（航空与航空工程系，香港理工大学）；Research Center for Low Altitude Economy, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University（低空经济研究中心，香港理工大学）；Department of Computer Science and Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology（计算机科学与工程系，香港科学与技术大学）；Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology（土木与环境工程系，香港科学与技术大学）
Sberbank（俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行）；National University of Science and Technology ``MISIS''（国立科技研究大学“莫斯科国立钢铁合金学院”）；Artificial Intelligence Research Institute (AIRI)（人工智能研究院（AIRI））
Recently, deep learning has achieved promising results in the calculation of Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA), which is considered as predicting the travel time from the start point to a certain place along a given path. ETA plays an essential role in intelligent taxi services or automotive navigation systems. A common practice is to use embedding vectors to represent the elements of a road network, such as road segments and crossroads. Road elements have their own attributes like length, presence of crosswalks, lanes number, etc. However, many links in the road network are traversed by too few…
Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学）；DiDi AI Labs（滴滴人工智能实验室）；DiDi Research（滴滴研究院）
Improving the efficiency of dispatching orders to vehicles is a research hotspot in online ride-hailing systems. Most of the existing solutions for order-dispatching are centralized controlling, which require to consider all possible matches between available orders and vehicles. For large-scale ride-sharing platforms, there are thousands of vehicles and orders to be matched at every second which is of very high computational cost. In this paper, we propose a decentralized execution order-dispatching method based on multi-agent reinforcement learning to address the large-scale order-dispatchin…
We propose a novel approach to optimize fleet management by combining multi-agent reinforcement learning with graph neural network. To provide ride-hailing service, one needs to optimize dynamic resources and demands over spatial domain. While the spatial structure was previously approximated with a regular grid, our approach represents the road network with a graph, which better reflects the underlying geometric structure. Dynamic resource allocation is formulated as multi-agent reinforcement learning, whose action-value function (Q function) is approximated with graph neural networks. We use…
