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arXiv 2407.18525cs.CLcs.AIcs.LG
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ClinicRealm:针对非生成式临床预测任务结合传统机器学习重新评估大语言模型

ClinicRealm: Re-evaluating Large Language Models with Conventional Machine Learning for Non-Generative Clinical Prediction Tasks

School of Artificial Intelligence, Beihang University(北京航空航天大学人工智能学院);Centre for Medical Informatics, The University of Edinburgh(爱丁堡大学医学信息学中心);Health Data Research UK(英国健康数据研究所);School of Computer Science, Peking University(北京大学计算机学院);National Engineering Research Center for Software Engineering, Peking University(北京大学软件工程国家工程研究中心);ETH Zurich(苏黎世联邦理工学院);School of Computing and Data Science, The University of Hong Kong(香港大学计算与数据科学学院)

Yinghao Zhu, Junyi Gao, Zixiang Wang, Weibin Liao, Xiaochen Zheng, Lifang Liang, Miguel O. Bernabeu, Yasha Wang, Lequan Yu, Chengwei Pan, Ewen M. Harrison, Liantao Ma

AI总结:

本研究推出ClinicRealm基准,系统评估多类模型在非生成式临床预测任务的表现,发现顶尖LLM在临床笔记零样本预测及数据稀缺的结构化EHR任务中优势显著,为医疗预测场景的模型选择提供新依据。

摘要:

大语言模型(LLM)在医学领域的应用日益广泛。然而,其在非生成式临床预测任务中的效用常被认为不及专用模型,且相关评估仍不充分,由于缺乏系统性基准测试,引发了领域内的持续争议,还可能导致误用、误解或过度依赖。我们的ClinicRealm研究针对这一问题展开:在非结构化临床笔记和结构化电子健康记录(EHR)上,对15个GPT风格LLM、5个BERT风格模型以及11种传统方法进行基准测试,同时评估它们的推理能力、可靠性和公平性。\n关键发现呈现出显著的格局转变:在临床笔记预测任务中,顶尖LLM(如DeepSeek-V3.1-Think、GPT-5)在零样本设置下的表现如今已决定性地优于经过微调的BERT模型。在结构化EHR任务上,尽管专用模型在数据充足时表现出色,但先进LLM(如GPT-5、DeepSeek-V3.1-Think)展现出强大的零样本能力,在数据稀缺场景下往往能超越传统模型。值得注意的是,领先的开源LLM表现可媲美甚至超越专有模型。\n这些结果提供了有力证据,表明现代LLM是开展非生成式临床预测的极具竞争力的工具,尤其适用于非结构化文本场景,还能为结构化数据任务提供数据高效的解决方案,因此有必要重新评估模型选择策略。本研究可为医学信息学家、AI开发者和临床研究者提供重要参考,或能推动对现有假设的重新审视,并启发医疗预测领域中LLM应用的新方向。

英文摘要:

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in medicine. However, their utility in non-generative clinical prediction, often presumed inferior to specialized models, remains under-evaluated, leading to ongoing debate within the field and potential for misuse, misunderstanding, or over-reliance due to a lack of systematic benchmarking. Our ClinicRealm study addresses this by benchmarking 15 GPT-style LLMs, 5 BERT-style models, and 11 traditional methods on unstructured clinical notes and structured Electronic Health Records (EHR), while also assessing their reasoning, reliability, and fairness. Key findings reveal a significant shift: for clinical note predictions, leading LLMs (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.1-Think, GPT-5) in zero-shot settings now decisively outperform finetuned BERT models. On structured EHRs, while specialized models excel with ample data, advanced LLMs (e.g., GPT-5, DeepSeek-V3.1-Think) show potent zero-shot capabilities, often surpassing conventional models in data-scarce settings. Notably, leading open-source LLMs can match or exceed proprietary counterparts. These results provide compelling evidence that modern LLMs are competitive tools for non-generative clinical prediction, particularly with unstructured text and offering data-efficient structured data options, thus necessitating a re-evaluation of model selection strategies. This research should serve as an important insight for medical informaticists, AI developers, and clinical researchers, potentially prompting a reassessment of current assumptions and inspiring new approaches to LLM application in predictive healthcare.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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