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arXiv 2407.08274cs.LG
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使用遥感进行子田块级别作物产量预测的可解释性

Explainability of Sub-Field Level Crop Yield Prediction using Remote Sensing

RPTU Kaiserslautern-Landau and the German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI)(莱茵-威斯巴登大学(RPTU)凯撒斯劳滕-兰道分校和德国人工智能研究中心(DFKI));German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI)(德国人工智能研究中心(DFKI));Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH(julich研究中心);University of Bonn(波恩大学)

Hiba Najjar, Miro Miranda, Marlon Nuske, Ribana Roscher, Andreas Dengel

AI总结:

本研究针对阿根廷等国大豆等作物,利用LSTM网络结合卫星图像等多模态数据预测子田块级作物产量,通过特征归因方法量化输入特征贡献并识别关键生长阶段,提升了模型可解释性。

摘要:

作物产量预测在应对日益增长的粮食安全担忧以及为政策制定者和农民提供决策指导方面发挥着重要作用。当采用深度学习时,理解模型的学习和决策过程及其与输入数据的交互,对于建立对模型的信任和深入了解其可靠性至关重要。在本研究中,我们专注于作物产量预测任务,特别是针对阿根廷、乌拉圭和德国的大豆、小麦和油菜作物。我们的目标是利用卫星图像的大型数据集、额外的数据模态和作物产量图,为这些作物开发并解释预测模型。我们采用了长短期记忆网络,并研究了使用卫星数据不同时间采样的影响以及添加更多相关模态的益处。为了实现模型可解释性,我们利用特征归因方法来量化输入特征的贡献,识别关键生长阶段,分析田块级别的产量变异性,并解释不太准确的预测。建模结果显示,当添加更多模态或使用所有可用的卫星数据实例时,性能有所提升。可解释性结果揭示了每种作物和地区独特的特征重要性模式。我们进一步发现,对预测最具影响力的生长阶段取决于输入数据的时间采样。我们展示了这些具有重要农学价值的关键生长阶段如何与农学和作物发育生物学中现有文献密切吻合。

英文摘要:

Crop yield forecasting plays a significant role in addressing growing concerns about food security and guiding decision-making for policymakers and farmers. When deep learning is employed, understanding the learning and decision-making processes of the models, as well as their interaction with the input data, is crucial for establishing trust in the models and gaining insight into their reliability. In this study, we focus on the task of crop yield prediction, specifically for soybean, wheat, and rapeseed crops in Argentina, Uruguay, and Germany. Our goal is to develop and explain predictive models for these crops, using a large dataset of satellite images, additional data modalities, and crop yield maps. We employ a long short-term memory network and investigate the impact of using different temporal samplings of the satellite data and the benefit of adding more relevant modalities. For model explainability, we utilize feature attribution methods to quantify input feature contributions, identify critical growth stages, analyze yield variability at the field level, and explain less accurate predictions. The modeling results show an improvement when adding more modalities or using all available instances of satellite data. The explainability results reveal distinct feature importance patterns for each crop and region. We further found that the most influential growth stages on the prediction are dependent on the temporal sampling of the input data. We demonstrated how these critical growth stages, which hold significant agronomic value, closely align with the existing literature in agronomy and crop development biology.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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