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arXiv 2510.18648cs.LG

用于精细分辨率干旱胁迫估算的知情学习可实现准确的产量预测

Informed Learning for Estimating Drought Stress at Fine-Scale Resolution Enables Accurate Yield Prediction

German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence(德国人工智能研究中心);Department of Computer Science, University of Kaiserslautern-Landau(科隆-兰道大学计算机科学系);Bernoulli Institute, University of Groningen(格罗宁根大学伯努利学院)

Miro Miranda, Marcela Charfuelan, Matias Valdenegro Toro, Andreas Dengel

AI总结:

本研究结合作物模拟模型的可解释性与机器学习的性能优势,通过物理 informed 损失函数和深度集成方法,基于多源数据在精细分辨率下预测干旱胁迫及水分敏感性,实现了高精度且可解释的作物产量预测,为气候背景下的农业决策提供支持。

摘要:

水对农业生产力至关重要。评估水资源短缺和减产潜力是保障农业生产力与粮食安全决策中的关键因素。符合物理过程的作物模拟模型具备内在可解释性,但表现往往不佳。相反,用于作物产量建模的机器学习模型功能强大且可扩展,却通常以黑盒形式运行,不遵循作物生长的物理原理。本研究结合了两类方法的优势,填补了这一空白。我们假设作物产量本质上由水分可用性决定,因此将作物产量构建为时间尺度水分稀缺性的函数,并在精细分辨率下预测作物干旱胁迫以及对水分稀缺性的敏感性。对作物产量的水分响应进行序列建模可实现准确的产量预测。为保证物理一致性,本文提出了一种新颖的物理 informed 损失函数。我们利用多光谱卫星影像、气象数据和精细分辨率产量数据开展研究。此外,为考量模型内部的不确定性,我们基于深度集成方法构建模型。我们的方法在作物产量预测任务中超越了LSTM、Transformers等前沿模型,决定系数($R^2$分数)最高可达0.82,同时具备高可解释性。该方法可为产业界、政策制定者和农民提供决策支持,助力在气候变化背景下构建更具韧性的农业。

英文摘要:

Water is essential for agricultural productivity. Assessing water shortages and reduced yield potential is a critical factor in decision-making for ensuring agricultural productivity and food security. Crop simulation models, which align with physical processes, offer intrinsic explainability but often perform poorly. Conversely, machine learning models for crop yield modeling are powerful and scalable, yet they commonly operate as black boxes and lack adherence to the physical principles of crop growth. This study bridges this gap by coupling the advantages of both worlds. We postulate that the crop yield is inherently defined by the water availability. Therefore, we formulate crop yield as a function of temporal water scarcity and predict both the crop drought stress and the sensitivity to water scarcity at fine-scale resolution. Sequentially modeling the crop yield response to water enables accurate yield prediction. To enforce physical consistency, a novel physics-informed loss function is proposed. We leverage multispectral satellite imagery, meteorological data, and fine-scale yield data. Further, to account for the uncertainty within the model, we build upon a deep ensemble approach. Our method surpasses state-of-the-art models like LSTM and Transformers in crop yield prediction with a coefficient of determination ($R^2$-score) of up to 0.82 while offering high explainability. This method offers decision support for industry, policymakers, and farmers in building a more resilient agriculture in times of changing climate conditions.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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