We address the issue of resilience of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) given the many indications that this dynamical system is in a multi-stable regime. A novel approach to resilience based on rare event techniques is presented which leads to a measure capturing `resistance to change` and `ability to return' aspects in a probabilistic way. The application of this measure to a conceptual model demonstrates its suitability for assessing AMOC resilience but also shows its potential use in many other non-autonomous dynamical systems. This framework is then extended to compute the probability that the AMOC undergoes a transition conditioned on an external forcing. Such conditional probability can be estimated by exploiting the information available when computing the resilience of this system. This allows us to provide a probabilistic view on safe operating spaces by defining a conditional safe operating space as a subset of the parameter space of the (possibly transient) imposed forcing.
Machine-learning prediction of tipping with applications to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
School of Electrical, Computer, and Energy Engineering, Arizona State University（亚利桑那州立大学电气、计算机与能源工程学院）；Army Research Directorate, DEVCOM Army Research Laboratory（DEVCOM陆军研究实验室陆军研究局）；Department of Physics, Arizona State University（亚利桑那州立大学物理系）
A Regime Shift in Atlantic Surface Currents Reveals a Step-like Decline of the Meridional Overturning Circulation
Beijing Normal University（北京师范大学）；Zhejiang University（浙江大学）；Kunming University of Science and Technology（昆明理工大学）；Technical University of Munich（慕尼黑工业大学）；Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research（波茨坦气候影响研究所）；Tsinghua University（清华大学）；Peking University（北京大学）
Density and sea level changes weaken the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation through ocean bottom pressure
Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, University of Miami（迈阿密大学罗斯恩施泰尔海洋、大气和地球科学学院）；National Oceanography Centre, Southampton（南安普敦国家海洋中心）
Multi-stability of Atlantic and Pacific overturning: The role of Freshwater Forcing Asymmetries and the Hydrological Cycle
Utrecht University（乌得勒支大学）；Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Department of Physics, Utrecht University（乌得勒支大学物理系海洋与大气研究所）；Centre for Complex Systems Studies, Utrecht University（乌得勒支大学复杂系统研究中心）
Limited impact of Greenland meltwater on abruptness and reversibility of future Atlantic overturning changes
Politecnico di Torino（都灵理工大学）；Utrecht University（乌得勒支大学）；University of Padova（帕多瓦大学）；Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche（意大利国家研究委员会）；Danish Meteorological Institute（丹麦气象研究所）；NORCE Norwegian Research Centre（挪威研究中心）
Global stability of the Atlantic overturning circulation: Edge state, long transients and boundary crisis under CO$_2$ forcing
University of Reading（雷丁大学）；Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University（乌得勒支大学海洋与大气研究所乌得勒支）；Politecnico di Torino（都灵理工大学）；University of Leicester（莱斯特大学）
Reconciling advective upwelling with diapycnal downwelling: A transient kinematic perspective on Munk's conundrum
China-ASEAN College of Marine Sciences, Xiamen University Malaysia（厦门大学马来西亚分校中国-东盟海洋科学学院）；College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University（厦门大学海洋与地球学院）
Persistent memory and tail-risk amplification in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation variability: a Volterra integral framework calibrated with CMIP6
Faculty of Engineering, Universidad del Desarrollo（发展大学工程学院）
Disentangled Fingerprints suggest no historical weakening of Atlantic Overturning and Subpolar Gyre
University of Copenhagen, Niels Bohr Institute（哥本哈根大学尼尔斯·玻尔研究所）；Technical University Munich（慕尼黑工业大学）；Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research（波茨坦气候影响研究所）；Seoul National University（首尔国立大学）；Institute for Sustainable Development, Seoul National University（首尔国立大学可持续发展研究所）；Global Systems Institute and Department of Mathematics, University of Exeter（埃克塞特大学全球系统研究所和数学系）
ClimTip-GML: A global bias-corrected and downscaled dataset for assessing impacts of climate tipping events
Technical University of Munich（慕尼黑工业大学）；Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research（波茨坦气候影响研究所）；Ludwig-Maximilians University of Munich（慕尼黑路德维希-马克西米利安大学）；Met Office（英国气象局）；Utrecht University（乌得勒支大学）；University of Exeter（埃克塞特大学）
