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arXiv 2608.25913physics.ao-ph

tipping级联旁的稳定作用:AMOC-冰冻圈系统

A place for stabilization alongside tipping cascades: the AMOC-cryosphere system

Sacha Sinet

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中文总结 AI 辅助

本文聚焦AMOC-冰冻圈系统,指出二者相互作用可抑制级联转变,提出需从关注稳定与去稳定动态、构建适配框架及开发相关方法三方面完善临界点风险评估。

中文摘要 AI 辅助

大西洋经向翻转环流(AMOC)与冰冻圈是临界点研究的核心对象,二者的相互作用通常被视为级联转变的路径。本文综述了相关证据,表明这些相互作用也可抑制变化,影响其幅度与时间,甚至在某些情况下决定转变是否发生。作者认为,要更全面评估临界点风险,需在三个方面取得进展:系统关注稳定与去稳定动态并存的情况;构建能容纳竞争性及依赖情境效应的概念框架;开发检测、预测与归因稳定作用的方法。

英文摘要

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and cryosphere are central to tipping-point research, where their interactions are typically framed as pathways for cascading transitions. Here, I review evidence that these interactions can also oppose change, affecting its magnitude and timing or, in some cases, whether a transition occurs at all. I argue that a more complete assessment of tipping risk requires progress on three fronts: systematic attention to stabilizing alongside destabilizing dynamics, conceptual frameworks that accommodate competing and context-dependent effects, and methods to detect, anticipate, and attribute stabilization.

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