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arXiv 2407.04548astro-ph.SR
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晕状日冕物质抛射丰度对第25太阳活动周强度的指示意义

Implications of the abundance of halo coronal mass ejections for the strength of solar cycle 25

Nat Gopalswamy, Grzegorz Michalek, Seiji Yashiro, Pertti Makela, Sachiko Akiyama, Hong Xie

AI总结:

该研究通过比较第23至25太阳活动周前四年的晕状CME丰度、发生率、源位置和高度,发现SC 25与SC 24相近,支持其仅略强于SC 24的预测。

摘要:

我们基于晕状日冕物质抛射(CME)的丰度,评估第25太阳活动周(SC 25)相对于第23和第24太阳活动周(SCs 23、24)的相对强度。我们利用晕状CME数据库(https://cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov/CME_list/halo/halo.html),比较SCs 23至25中每个活动周最初四年期间的晕状CME丰度。主要结果是:在丰度、发生率、源位置和晕高度等若干方面,SCs 24与25的晕状CME相似,但均不同于SC 23。该结果源于较弱活动周具有较低的日球层总压力,其对CME的反作用使CME能够膨胀得更充分,从而提高其成为晕状CME的概率。晕状CME性质的太阳活动周变化与基于前兆的活动周预测方法一致,这些方法表明SC 25与SC 24相似,或仅略强于SC 24。

英文摘要:

We assess the relative strength of solar cycle (SC) 25 with respect to SCs 23 and 24 based on the abundance of halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We make use of the halo CME database (https://cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov/CME_list/halo/halo.html) to compare the halo CME abundance during the first four years in each of SCs 23 to 25. The main result is that in several aspects such as the abundance, occurrence rate, source locations, and halo heights, halo CMEs are similar between SCs 24 and 25 but different from SC 23. This result follows from the fact that weaker cycles have low heliospheric total pressure, whose backreaction on CMEs allows them to expand more and hence enhancing the chance of becoming a halo. The solar cycle variation of halo CME properties is consistent with the precursor-based cycle prediction methods that indicate SC 25 is similar to or only slightly stronger than SC 24.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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