政策变化与增长放缓：评估拉丁美洲奇迹的失落十年
Policy Changes and Growth Slowdown: Assessing the Lost Decade of the Latin American Miracle
AI总结：
本文利用合成控制法和贝叶斯结构时间序列估计，发现智利2014年后的经济放缓至少三分之二源于内部政策体制变化，导致五年内人均实际GDP下降近10%，为新兴经济体的发展经济学提供启示。
摘要：
拉丁美洲地区自大宗商品繁荣期结束以来一直遭受经济放缓。在此背景下，智利直到2014年一直是经济增长与发展的典范。自那以后，智利也陷入了长达十年的缓慢经济增长。智利突然的放缓以及近期增长路径的偏离，对经济增长与发展经济学构成了一个谜题。本文从实证角度考察这一放缓，并确定其中有多少可归因于内部和外部原因。采用合成控制方法和结构时间序列贝叶斯估计，我们的研究结果表明，智利经济放缓中至少有三分之二可归因于2014年政策体制变化所驱动的内部原因，外部因素则起次要作用。这一系列内部改革的净效应导致五年内人均实际GDP下降近10%，并使2015年至2019年的平均GDP增长率下降1.8个百分点。我们的结果与既有文献一致，即外部冲击只能解释发展中国家经济表现不佳的一小部分，表明内部因素是表现欠佳的主要来源。本研究揭示了政策体制转变对经济增长的潜在影响，从而为发展经济学，尤其是新兴经济体，提供了有价值的见解。
英文摘要：
The Latin American region has suffered an economic slowdown since the end of the commodities boom. Within this context, Chile was the poster child of economic growth and development up until 2014. Since then, Chile has also been trapped in a decade of slow economic growth. Chile's sudden slowdown and recent growth path divergence have posed a puzzle for economic growth and development economics. This paper examines this slowdown from an empirical perspective and determines how much can be attributed to internal and external causes. Using a synthetic control approach and a structural time series Bayesian estimation, our findings suggest that at least two-thirds of the Chilean slowdown is attributable to internal causes driven by a policy regime change in 2014, with external factors playing a secondary role. The net effect of this set of internal reforms resulted in a nearly 10% reduction in real GDP per capita over five years and led to a 1.8% decline in average GDP growth rates from 2015 to 2019. Our results are consistent with the literature that establishes that external shocks can explain only a small fraction of the poor economic performance of developing countries, suggesting that internal factors are the primary source of subpar performance. This research sheds light on the potential effects of policy regime shifts in economic growth, thus providing valuable insights for development economics and, more specifically, emerging economies.
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