人类气候变化对全球农业生产力的历史影响
The Historical Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Global Agricultural Productivity
摘要：
农业研究促进了生产力的增长，但人为气候变化对这种增长的历史影响尚未量化。我们建立了一个稳健的气候对全球农业全要素生产率（TFP）影响的计量经济学模型，并将该模型与反事实气候情景相结合，以评估过去气候趋势对TFP的影响。我们的基线模型表明，自1961年以来，人为气候变化使全球农业全要素生产率下降了约21%，这相当于失去了过去9年的生产率增长。在非洲、拉丁美洲和加勒比等较温暖的地区，这种影响更为严重（减少约30-33%）。我们还发现，全球农业越来越容易受到持续气候变化的影响。
英文摘要：
Agricultural research has fostered productivity growth, but the historical influence of anthropogenic climate change on that growth has not been quantified. We develop a robust econometric model of weather effects on global agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) and combine this model with counterfactual climate scenarios to evaluate impacts of past climate trends on TFP. Our baseline model indicates that anthropogenic climate change has reduced global agricultural TFP by about 21% since 1961, a slowdown that is equivalent to losing the last 9 years of productivity growth. The effect is substantially more severe (a reduction of ~30-33%) in warmer regions such as Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean. We also find that global agriculture has grown more vulnerable to ongoing climate change.
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