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arXiv 2406.13151stat.MLcs.LGstat.CO
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基于冯·米塞斯拟过程的贝叶斯圆形回归

Bayesian Circular Regression with von Mises Quasi-Processes

Ben-Gurion University of the Negev(内盖夫本-古里安大学);Unilever(联合利华);Technical University of Denmark(丹麦技术大学);University of Cambridge(剑桥大学)

Yarden Cohen, Alexandre Khae Wu Navarro, Jes Frellsen, Richard E. Turner, Raziel Riemer, Ari Pakman

AI总结:

本研究提出基于冯·米塞斯拟过程的贝叶斯圆形回归模型,具备最大熵特性,设计类Stratonovich增广的快速吉布斯采样方案,应用于风向与步态周期占比预测任务。

摘要:

预测圆形取值的回归模型需求在诸多科学领域中普遍存在。本研究探索了一族具有强表达能力与可解释性的圆形取值随机函数分布,该分布与以单位圆为条件、针对二维欧氏空间的高斯过程相关,其概率模型与统计物理中的连续自旋模型存在关联。此外,该模型密度形式简洁且具备最大熵特性,区别于以往采用包裹或径向边缘化的基于高斯过程的方法。在后验推断方面,我们提出了一种新型类Stratonovich增广方法,可支持快速吉布斯采样。我们论证了此类模型中的转导学习更适合采用贝叶斯方法处理参数,并将采样方案应用于Double Metropolis-Hastings算法。实验中,我们将该模型应用于两类预测任务:(1)风向预测;(2)以关节角度为自变量的跑步步态周期占比预测。

英文摘要:

The need for regression models to predict circular values arises in many scientific fields. In this work we explore a family of expressive and interpretable distributions over circle-valued random functions related to Gaussian processes targeting two Euclidean dimensions conditioned on the unit circle. The probability model has connections with continuous spin models in statistical physics. Moreover, its density is very simple and has maximum-entropy, unlike previous Gaussian process-based approaches, which use wrapping or radial marginalization. For posterior inference, we introduce a new Stratonovich-like augmentation that lends itself to fast Gibbs sampling. We argue that transductive learning in these models favors a Bayesian approach to the parameters and apply our sampling scheme to the Double Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. We present experiments applying this model to the prediction of (i) wind directions and (ii) the percentage of the running gait cycle as a function of joint angles.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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