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arXiv 2406.06968cs.LGcs.AI
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超越规范:检测回归模型中的预测错误

Beyond the Norms: Detecting Prediction Errors in Regression Models

International Laboratory on Learning Systems (ILLS)(国际学习系统实验室)

Andres Altieri, Marco Romanelli, Georg Pichler, Florence Alberge, Pablo Piantanida

AI总结:

本文形式化定义回归模型的不可靠性,通过概率建模估计差异密度并提出统计相异性度量,生成数据驱动的不确定性分数,从而在多个回归任务上提升预测误差检测效果。

摘要:

本文解决检测回归算法中不可靠行为的挑战,这类行为可能源于内在变异性(例如偶然不确定性)或建模错误(例如模型不确定性)。首先,我们正式引入回归中不可靠性的概念,即当回归器的输出超过指定的差异(或误差)时。随后,利用强大的概率建模工具,我们估计差异密度,并使用所提出的统计相异性度量来衡量其统计多样性。反过来,这使我们能够推导出一个数据驱动的分数,用于表达回归结果的不确定性。我们在多个回归任务的误差检测中展示了实证改进,始终优于流行的基线方法,并为更广泛的不确定性量化和安全机器学习系统领域作出贡献。我们的代码可在 https://zenodo.org/records/11281964 获取。

英文摘要:

This paper tackles the challenge of detecting unreliable behavior in regression algorithms, which may arise from intrinsic variability (e.g., aleatoric uncertainty) or modeling errors (e.g., model uncertainty). First, we formally introduce the notion of unreliability in regression, i.e., when the output of the regressor exceeds a specified discrepancy (or error). Then, using powerful tools for probabilistic modeling, we estimate the discrepancy density, and we measure its statistical diversity using our proposed metric for statistical dissimilarity. In turn, this allows us to derive a data-driven score that expresses the uncertainty of the regression outcome. We show empirical improvements in error detection for multiple regression tasks, consistently outperforming popular baseline approaches, and contributing to the broader field of uncertainty quantification and safe machine learning systems. Our code is available at https://zenodo.org/records/11281964.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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