科学中集体确定性的悖论
The Paradox of Collective Certainty in Science
AI总结：
本文揭示科学中集体确定性的悖论：科学家合作越紧密，越易形成认知气泡，导致确定性上升而真实可复现性下降，形成确定性与真理之间的权衡。
摘要：
我们探讨了科学中集体行动与确定性之间的一个悖论：科学家越是一起进行研究，其工作对集体确定性价值的贡献反而越少。当科学家处理相似问题并共享数据、方法和合作者时，他们对同事研究的理解和信任会上升，而这是科学进步所必需的品质。这增加了科学家因共同信念而获得的正向强化，因为他们变得更加依赖同事的知识、兴趣和发现。这种集体行动增加了科学家处于认知“气泡”中的可能性，从而限制了他们做出新发现或使其发现具有普适性的能力。简言之，随着科学家之间的关系变得更加紧密，他们对科学有效性的体验会上升，而真正可复现的可能性则会下降，从而在确定性与真理之间形成一种权衡。
英文摘要：
We explore a paradox of collective action and certainty in science wherein the more scientists research together, the less that work contributes to the value of their collective certainty. When scientists address similar problems and share data, methods, and collaborators, their understanding of and trust in their colleagues' research rises, a quality required for scientific advance. This increases the positive reinforcement scientists receive for shared beliefs as they become more dependent on their colleagues' knowledge, interests, and findings. This collective action increases the potential for scientists to reside in epistemic ''bubbles'' that limit their capacity to make new discoveries or have their discoveries generalize. In short, as scientists grow closer, their experience of scientific validity rises as the likelihood of genuine replication falls, creating a trade-off between certainty and truth.
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