从观测数据中估计条件平均处理效应（CATE）与个性化医疗等诸多应用相关。本文聚焦于观测数据来自多环境（如不同医院、医生或国家）这一普遍设定。此外，我们允许违反标准因果假设，即环境内的重叠性和无混淆性。为此，我们放弃点识别，转而关注部分识别。具体而言，我们表明当前文献中关于多环境的假设允许我们将环境解释为工具变量（IV）。这使得我们能够利用跨环境的处理分配机制，改编 IV 文献中的界限以对 CATE 进行部分识别。然后，我们提出了不同的模型无关学习器（即所谓的元学习器）来估计这些界限，它们可与任意机器学习模型结合使用。我们进一步利用模拟和真实数据，通过各种实验证明了元学习器的有效性。最后，我们讨论了元学习器在工具变量设定（如存在不依从的随机对照试验）中部分识别的适用性。
英文摘要：
Estimating the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) from observational data is relevant for many applications such as personalized medicine. Here, we focus on the widespread setting where the observational data come from multiple environments, such as different hospitals, physicians, or countries. Furthermore, we allow for violations of standard causal assumptions, namely, overlap within the environments and unconfoundedness. To this end, we move away from point identification and focus on partial identification. Specifically, we show that current assumptions from the literature on multiple environments allow us to interpret the environment as an instrumental variable (IV). This allows us to adapt bounds from the IV literature for partial identification of CATE by leveraging treatment assignment mechanisms across environments. Then, we propose different model-agnostic learners (so-called meta-learners) to estimate the bounds that can be used in combination with arbitrary machine learning models. We further demonstrate the effectiveness of our meta-learners across various experiments using both simulated and real-world data. Finally, we discuss the applicability of our meta-learners to partial identification in instrumental variable settings, such as randomized controlled trials with non-compliance.
Estimation of causal effects using machine learning methods has become an active research field in econometrics. In this paper, we study the finite sample performance of meta-learners for estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects under the usage of sample-splitting and cross-fitting to reduce the overfitting bias. In both synthetic and semi-synthetic simulations we find that the performance of the meta-learners in finite samples greatly depends on the estimation procedure. The results imply that sample-splitting and cross-fitting are beneficial in large samples for bias reduction and effic…
Conformal Convolution and Monte Carlo Meta-learners for Predictive Inference of Individual Treatment Effects
IDLab Department of Electronics and Information Systems Ghent University, Belgium（IDLab电子与信息系统系根特大学，比利时）；IDLab Department of Electronics and Information Systems Ghent University - imec, Belgium（IDLab电子与信息系统系根特大学-imec，比利时）；Biometrics Research Group Department of Morphology, Imaging, Orthopedics, Rehabilitation and Nutrition Ghent University, Belgium（生物医学研究组形态学、成像、骨科、康复与营养系根特大学，比利时）
There is growing interest in estimating and analyzing heterogeneous treatment effects in experimental and observational studies. We describe a number of meta-algorithms that can take advantage of any supervised learning or regression method in machine learning and statistics to estimate the Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) function. Meta-algorithms build on base algorithms---such as Random Forests (RF), Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) or neural networks---to estimate the CATE, a function that the base algorithms are not designed to estimate directly. We introduce a new met…
We investigate the finite sample performance of sample splitting, cross-fitting and averaging for the estimation of the conditional average treatment effect. Recently proposed methods, so-called meta-learners, make use of machine learning to estimate different nuisance functions and hence allow for fewer restrictions on the underlying structure of the data. To limit a potential overfitting bias that may result when using machine learning methods, cross-fitting estimators have been proposed. This includes the splitting of the data in different folds to reduce bias and averaging over folds to re…
Meta-learning is a tool that allows us to build sample-efficient learning systems. Here we show that, once meta-trained, LSTM Meta-Learners aren't just faster learners than their sample-inefficient deep learning (DL) and reinforcement learning (RL) brethren, but that they actually pursue fundamentally different learning trajectories. We study their learning dynamics on three sets of structured tasks for which the corresponding learning dynamics of DL and RL systems have been previously described: linear regression (Saxe et al., 2013), nonlinear regression (Rahaman et al., 2018; Xu et al., 2018…
Hong Kong University of Science and Technology（香港科技大学）；New York University（纽约大学）；Spotify
This study presents a systematic comparison of methods for individual treatment assignment, a general problem that arises in many applications and has received significant attention from economists, computer scientists, and social scientists. We group the various methods proposed in the literature into three general classes of algorithms (or metalearners): learning models to predict outcomes (the O-learner), learning models to predict causal effects (the E-learner), and learning models to predict optimal treatment assignments (the A-learner). We compare the metalearners in terms of (1) their l…
Microsoft AI & Research（微软人工智能与研究）；IBM Research AI（IBM研究人工智能）；JD AI Research（京东人工智能研究）
Few-shot Learning aims to learn classifiers for new classes with only a few training examples per class. Existing meta-learning or metric-learning based few-shot learning approaches are limited in handling diverse domains with various number of labels. The meta-learning approaches train a meta learner to predict weights of homogeneous-structured task-specific networks, requiring a uniform number of classes across tasks. The metric-learning approaches learn one task-invariant metric for all the tasks, and they fail if the tasks diverge. We propose to deal with these limitations with meta metric…
Fully automating machine learning pipelines is one of the key challenges of current artificial intelligence research, since practical machine learning often requires costly and time-consuming human-powered processes such as model design, algorithm development, and hyperparameter tuning. In this paper, we verify that automated architecture search synergizes with the effect of gradient-based meta learning. We adopt the progressive neural architecture search \cite{liu:pnas_google:DBLP:journals/corr/abs-1712-00559} to find optimal architectures for meta-learners. The gradient based meta-learner wh…
Deep neural networks excel in regimes with large amounts of data, but tend to struggle when data is scarce or when they need to adapt quickly to changes in the task. In response, recent work in meta-learning proposes training a meta-learner on a distribution of similar tasks, in the hopes of generalization to novel but related tasks by learning a high-level strategy that captures the essence of the problem it is asked to solve. However, many recent meta-learning approaches are extensively hand-designed, either using architectures specialized to a particular application, or hard-coding algorith…
AITRICS；Pohang University of Science and Technology（浦项科技大学）；University of Technology Sydney（悉尼科技大学）
A meta-model is trained on a distribution of similar tasks such that it learns an algorithm that can quickly adapt to a novel task with only a handful of labeled examples. Most of current meta-learning methods assume that the meta-training set consists of relevant tasks sampled from a single distribution. In practice, however, a new task is often out of the task distribution, yielding a performance degradation. One way to tackle this problem is to construct an ensemble of meta-learners such that each meta-learner is trained on different task distribution. In this paper we present a method for …
University of Kentucky（肯塔基大学）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）；University of Minnesota（明尼苏达大学）
In collaborative learning, learners coordinate to enhance each of their learning performances. From the perspective of any learner, a critical challenge is to filter out unqualified collaborators. We propose a framework named meta clustering to address the challenge. Unlike the classical problem of clustering data points, meta clustering categorizes learners. Assuming each learner performs a supervised regression on a standalone local dataset, we propose a Select-Exchange-Cluster (SEC) method to classify the learners by their underlying supervised functions. We theoretically show that the SEC …
Deep learning typically requires large data sets and much compute power for each new problem that is learned. Meta-learning can be used to learn a good prior that facilitates quick learning, thereby relaxing these requirements so that new tasks can be learned quicker; two popular approaches are MAML and the meta-learner LSTM. In this work, we compare the two and formally show that the meta-learner LSTM subsumes MAML. Combining this insight with recent empirical findings, we construct a new algorithm (dubbed TURTLE) which is simpler than the meta-learner LSTM yet more expressive than MAML. TURT…
Northwestern Polytechnical University of China（西北工业大学）；Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院）；JD Finance（京东金融）；JD AI Research（京东人工智能研究院）
Deep learning based computer vision fails to work when labeled images are scarce. Recently, Meta learning algorithm has been confirmed as a promising way to improve the ability of learning from few images for computer vision. However, previous Meta learning approaches expose problems: 1) they ignored the importance of attention mechanism for the Meta learner; 2) they didn't give the Meta learner the ability of well using the past knowledge which can help to express images into high representations, resulting in that the Meta learner has to solve few shot learning task directly from the origina…
Few-shot learning is challenging for learning algorithms that learn each task in isolation and from scratch. In contrast, meta-learning learns from many related tasks a meta-learner that can learn a new task more accurately and faster with fewer examples, where the choice of meta-learners is crucial. In this paper, we develop Meta-SGD, an SGD-like, easily trainable meta-learner that can initialize and adapt any differentiable learner in just one step, on both supervised learning and reinforcement learning. Compared to the popular meta-learner LSTM, Meta-SGD is conceptually simpler, easier to i…
When data are scarce meta-learning can improve a learner's accuracy by harnessing previous experience from related learning tasks. However, existing methods have unreliable uncertainty estimates which are often overconfident. Addressing these shortcomings, we introduce a novel meta-learning framework, called F-PACOH, that treats meta-learned priors as stochastic processes and performs meta-level regularization directly in the function space. This allows us to directly steer the probabilistic predictions of the meta-learner towards high epistemic uncertainty in regions of insufficient meta-trai…
Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST)（韩国科学技术院）
We propose a meta-learning algorithm utilizing a linear transformer that carries out null-space projection of neural network outputs. The main idea is to construct an alternative classification space such that the error signals during few-shot learning are quickly zero-forced on that space so that reliable classification on low data is possible. The final decision on a query is obtained utilizing a null-space-projected distance measure between the network output and reference vectors, both of which have been trained in the initial learning phase. Among the known methods with a given model size…
School of Computing Science（计算机科学学院）；Simon Fraser University（西蒙弗雷泽大学）
The goal of few-shot classification is to learn a model that can classify novel classes using only a few training examples. Despite the promising results shown by existing meta-learning algorithms in solving the few-shot classification problem, there still remains an important challenge: how to generalize to unseen domains while meta-learning on multiple seen domains? In this paper, we propose an optimization-based meta-learning method, called Combining Domain-Specific Meta-Learners (CosML), that addresses the cross-domain few-shot classification problem. CosML first trains a set of meta-learn…
Principled Fast and Meta Knowledge Learners for Continual Reinforcement Learning
University of Alberta（阿尔伯塔大学）；National Key Laboratory of Cognition and Decision Intelligence for Complex Systems, Institution of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences（认知与决策智能复杂系统国家重点实验室，自动化研究所，中国科学院）；Edmonton Research Center, Huawei Canada（华为加拿大爱德蒙顿研究中心）；Huawei Noah’s Ark Lab（华为诺亚实验室）；BetaInfinity
Meta-learning empowers artificial intelligence to increase its efficiency by learning how to learn. Unlocking this potential involves overcoming a challenging meta-optimisation problem. We propose an algorithm that tackles this problem by letting the meta-learner teach itself. The algorithm first bootstraps a target from the meta-learner, then optimises the meta-learner by minimising the distance to that target under a chosen (pseudo-)metric. Focusing on meta-learning with gradients, we establish conditions that guarantee performance improvements and show that the metric can control meta-optim…
Meta Learning has been in focus in recent years due to the meta-learner model's ability to adapt well and generalize to new tasks, thus, reducing both the time and data requirements for learning. However, a major drawback of meta learner is that, to reach to a state from where learning new tasks becomes feasible with less data, it requires a large number of iterations and a lot of time. We address this issue by proposing various acceleration techniques to speed up meta learning algorithms such as MAML (Model Agnostic Meta Learning). We present 3.73X acceleration on a well known RNN optimizer b…
LLMs as In-Context Meta-Learners for Model and Hyperparameter Selection
Huawei Noah’s Ark Lab（华为诺亚实验室）；Centre de Recherche en Informatique, Mines Paris, PSL University（信息研究中心，巴黎 Mines，PSL 大学）；Department of Data Science, EURECOM（数据科学系，EURECOM）
Cold-start problems are long-standing challenges for practical recommendations. Most existing recommendation algorithms rely on extensive observed data and are brittle to recommendation scenarios with few interactions. This paper addresses such problems using few-shot learning and meta learning. Our approach is based on the insight that having a good generalization from a few examples relies on both a generic model initialization and an effective strategy for adapting this model to newly arising tasks. To accomplish this, we combine the scenario-specific learning with a model-agnostic sequenti…
Lancaster University（兰卡斯特大学）；Technical University of Ostrava（俄斯特拉发技术大学）；Sharif University of Technology（谢里夫理工大学）
One of the challenging questions in time series forecasting is how to find the best algorithm. In recent years, a recommender system scheme has been developed for time series analysis using a meta-learning approach. This system selects the best forecasting method with consideration of the time series characteristics. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to focusing on some of the unanswered questions resulting from the use of meta-learning in time series forecasting. Therefore, three main gaps in previous works are addressed including, analyzing various subsets of top forecasters as inpu…
Tsinghua University（清华大学）；Microsoft AI & Research（微软人工智能与研究院）；IBM T.J. Watson Research Center（IBM托马斯·J·沃森研究中心）
Few-shot learning aims to learn classifiers for new classes with only a few training examples per class. Most existing few-shot learning approaches belong to either metric-based meta-learning or optimization-based meta-learning category, both of which have achieved successes in the simplified "$k$-shot $N$-way" image classification settings. Specifically, the optimization-based approaches train a meta-learner to predict the parameters of the task-specific classifiers. The task-specific classifiers are required to be homogeneous-structured to ease the parameter prediction, so the meta-learning …
The Australian National University（澳大利亚国立大学）；Monash University（莫纳什大学）；Research Center of Léonard de Vinci Pôle Universitaire（莱昂纳多·达·文西大学中心研究中心）；Data61, CSIRO（澳大利亚联邦科学与工业研究组织Data61）；University of Turku（图尔库大学）
Learning to learn (L2L) trains a meta-learner to assist the learning of a task-specific base learner. Previously, it was shown that a meta-learner could learn the direct rules to update learner parameters; and that the learnt neural optimiser updated learners more rapidly than handcrafted gradient-descent methods. However, we demonstrate that previous neural optimisers were limited to update learners on one designated dataset. In order to address input-domain heterogeneity, we introduce Multi-Task Learning to Learn (MTL2L), a context aware neural optimiser which self-modifies its optimisation …
Università degli Studi di Milano（米兰大学）；The Hebrew University（希伯来大学）
We describe and analyze efficient algorithms for learning a linear predictor from examples when the learner can only view a few attributes of each training example. This is the case, for instance, in medical research, where each patient participating in the experiment is only willing to go through a small number of tests. Our analysis bounds the number of additional examples sufficient to compensate for the lack of full information on each training example. We demonstrate the efficiency of our algorithms by showing that when running on digit recognition data, they obtain a high prediction accu…
Center for Research in Computer Vision（计算机视觉研究中心）；University of Central Florida（中佛罗里达大学）
Meta-learning approaches have been proposed to tackle the few-shot learning problem.Typically, a meta-learner is trained on a variety of tasks in the hopes of being generalizable to new tasks. However, the generalizability on new tasks of a meta-learner could be fragile when it is over-trained on existing tasks during meta-training phase. In other words, the initial model of a meta-learner could be too biased towards existing tasks to adapt to new tasks, especially when only very few examples are available to update the model. To avoid a biased meta-learner and improve its generalizability, we…
College of Computer Science, Zhejiang University（浙江大学计算机学院）；University of California, Santa Barbara（加州大学圣巴巴拉分校）
Graph classification aims to extract accurate information from graph-structured data for classification and is becoming more and more important in graph learning community. Although Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have been successfully applied to graph classification tasks, most of them overlook the scarcity of labeled graph data in many applications. For example, in bioinformatics, obtaining protein graph labels usually needs laborious experiments. Recently, few-shot learning has been explored to alleviate this problem with only given a few labeled graph samples of test classes. The shared sub-…
Meta-learning algorithms aim to learn two components: a model that predicts targets for a task, and a base learner that quickly updates that model when given examples from a new task. This additional level of learning can be powerful, but it also creates another potential source for overfitting, since we can now overfit in either the model or the base learner. We describe both of these forms of metalearning overfitting, and demonstrate that they appear experimentally in common meta-learning benchmarks. We then use an information-theoretic framework to discuss meta-augmentation, a way to add ra…
Nanjing University（南京大学）；Ohio State University（俄亥俄州立大学）
Few-shot learning (FSL) aims to generate a classifier using limited labeled examples. Many existing works take the meta-learning approach, constructing a few-shot learner that can learn from few-shot examples to generate a classifier. Typically, the few-shot learner is constructed or meta-trained by sampling multiple few-shot tasks in turn and optimizing the few-shot learner's performance in generating classifiers for those tasks. The performance is measured by how well the resulting classifiers classify the test (i.e., query) examples of those tasks. In this paper, we point out two potential …
Pohang University of Science and Technology（浦项科技大学）
Gradient-based meta-learning methods leverage gradient descent to learn the commonalities among various tasks. While previous such methods have been successful in meta-learning tasks, they resort to simple gradient descent during meta-testing. Our primary contribution is the {\em MT-net}, which enables the meta-learner to learn on each layer's activation space a subspace that the task-specific learner performs gradient descent on. Additionally, a task-specific learner of an {\em MT-net} performs gradient descent with respect to a meta-learned distance metric, which warps the activation space t…
University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；UCLA（加利福尼亚大学洛杉矶分校）；The Alan Turing Institute（艾伦·图灵研究所）
The need to evaluate treatment effectiveness is ubiquitous in most of empirical science, and interest in flexibly investigating effect heterogeneity is growing rapidly. To do so, a multitude of model-agnostic, nonparametric meta-learners have been proposed in recent years. Such learners decompose the treatment effect estimation problem into separate sub-problems, each solvable using standard supervised learning methods. Choosing between different meta-learners in a data-driven manner is difficult, as it requires access to counterfactual information. Therefore, with the ultimate goal of buildin…
Meta learning algorithms have been widely applied in many tasks for efficient learning, such as few-shot image classification and fast reinforcement learning. During meta training, the meta learner develops a common learning strategy, or experience, from a variety of learning tasks. Therefore, during meta test, the meta learner can use the learned strategy to quickly adapt to new tasks even with a few training samples. However, there is still a dark side about meta learning in terms of reliability and robustness. In particular, is meta learning vulnerable to adversarial attacks? In other words…
Polythetic classifications, based on shared patterns of features that need neither be universal nor constant among members of a class, are common in the natural world and greatly outnumber monothetic classifications over a set of features. We show that threshold meta-learners, such as Prototypical Networks, require an embedding dimension that is exponential in the number of task-relevant features to emulate these functions. In contrast, attentional classifiers, such as Matching Networks, are polythetic by default and able to solve these problems with a linear embedding dimension. However, we f…
How to learn an effective reinforcement learning-based model for control tasks from high-level visual observations is a practical and challenging problem. A key to solving this problem is to learn low-dimensional state representations from observations, from which an effective policy can be learned. In order to boost the learning of state encoding, recent works are focused on capturing behavioral similarities between state representations or applying data augmentation on visual observations. In this paper, we propose a novel meta-learner-based framework for representation learning regarding be…
Few-shot image classification (FSIC), which requires a model to recognize new categories via learning from few images of these categories, has attracted lots of attention. Recently, meta-learning based methods have been shown as a promising direction for FSIC. Commonly, they train a meta-learner (meta-learning model) to learn easy fine-tuning weight, and when solving an FSIC task, the meta-learner efficiently fine-tunes itself to a task-specific model by updating itself on few images of the task. In this paper, we propose a novel meta-learning based layer-wise adaptive updating (LWAU) method f…
Meta-learning can successfully acquire useful inductive biases from data. Yet, its generalization properties to unseen learning tasks are poorly understood. Particularly if the number of meta-training tasks is small, this raises concerns about overfitting. We provide a theoretical analysis using the PAC-Bayesian framework and derive novel generalization bounds for meta-learning. Using these bounds, we develop a class of PAC-optimal meta-learning algorithms with performance guarantees and a principled meta-level regularization. Unlike previous PAC-Bayesian meta-learners, our method results in a…
Microsoft（微软）；Center of Excellence in Artificial Intelligence (Deep Learning Brazil)（人工智能卓越中心（巴西深度学习中心））
The transformer architecture and variants presented remarkable success across many machine learning tasks in recent years. This success is intrinsically related to the capability of handling long sequences and the presence of context-dependent weights from the attention mechanism. We argue that these capabilities suit the central role of a Meta-Reinforcement Learning algorithm. Indeed, a meta-RL agent needs to infer the task from a sequence of trajectories. Furthermore, it requires a fast adaptation strategy to adapt its policy for a new task -- which can be achieved using the self-attention m…
Majority of the modern meta-learning methods for few-shot classification tasks operate in two phases: a meta-training phase where the meta-learner learns a generic representation by solving multiple few-shot tasks sampled from a large dataset and a testing phase, where the meta-learner leverages its learnt internal representation for a specific few-shot task involving classes which were not seen during the meta-training phase. To the best of our knowledge, all such meta-learning methods use a single base dataset for meta-training to sample tasks from and do not adapt the algorithm after meta-t…
