使用 Bernstein Yett-均匀先验的贝叶斯 Copula 密度估计
Bayesian Copula Density Estimation Using Bernstein Yett-Uniform Priors
AI总结:
本文提出一类基于 yett-均匀先验的随机 Bernstein Copula 函数,研究其后验分布性质,并设计 MCMC 算法进行贝叶斯 Copula 密度估计,通过模拟与真实数据验证方法有效性。
摘要:
概率密度估计是统计学中的核心任务。基于 Copula 的模型在多元分布建模中提供了极大的灵活性,允许将边缘分布的模型设定与连接它们形成联合分布的相依结构(Copula)分开指定。选择一类 Copula 模型并非易事,且其错误设定可能导致错误结论。我们引入一类新的随机 Bernstein Copula 函数,并研究了其支撑集及其后验分布的行为。该提议基于一类特殊的随机网格均匀 Copula,称为 yett-均匀 Copula。我们还研究了在所提模型下探索后验分布的替代马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗算法。该方法通过模拟数据和真实数据进行了说明。
英文摘要:
Probability density estimation is a central task in statistics. Copula-based models provide a great deal of flexibility in modelling multivariate distributions, allowing for the specifications of models for the marginal distributions separately from the dependence structure (copula) that links them to form a joint distribution. Choosing a class of copula models is not a trivial task and its misspecification can lead to wrong conclusions. We introduce a novel class of random Bernstein copula functions, and studied its support and the behavior of its posterior distribution. The proposal is based on a particular class of random grid-uniform copulas, referred to as yett-uniform copulas. Alternative Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for exploring the posterior distribution under the proposed model are also studied. The methodology is illustrated by means of simulated and real data.
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