arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv周末暂无论文更新,休息一下吧,周末愉快~~
arXiv 2404.01487cs.LG
收藏

面向野火预测的可解释人工智能集成特征工程

Explainable AI Integrated Feature Engineering for Wildfire Prediction

Los Alamos National Laborator, Los Alamos, NM 87545

Di Fan, Ayan Biswas, James Paul Ahrens

AI总结:

本文通过评估多种机器学习算法,发现XGBoost在野火分类中表现最佳、随机森林在过火面积回归中表现最优,并提出融合数值与图像数据的混合神经网络,结合XAI技术揭示关键特征,强调模型可解释性在环境科学中的重要性。

摘要:

野火给预测带来了复杂的挑战,因此需要使用先进的机器学习技术进行有效建模。在我们的研究中,我们对与野火预测相关的分类和回归任务中的多种机器学习算法进行了全面评估。我们发现,在对不同类型或阶段的野火进行分类时,XGBoost模型在准确性和鲁棒性方面优于其他模型。同时,随机森林回归模型在预测野火影响区域范围方面表现出更优的结果,在预测误差和解释方差方面均表现突出。此外,我们开发了一种混合神经网络模型,该模型整合了数值数据和图像信息,用于同时进行分类和回归。为了更深入地了解这些模型的决策过程并识别关键贡献特征,我们使用了可解释人工智能(XAI)技术,包括TreeSHAP、LIME、部分依赖图(PDP)和梯度加权类激活映射(Grad-CAM)。这些可解释性工具揭示了各种特征的重要性和相互作用,突出了影响野火预测的复杂因素。我们的研究不仅证明了特定机器学习模型在野火相关任务中的有效性,还强调了模型透明度和可解释性在环境科学应用中的关键作用。

英文摘要:

Wildfires present intricate challenges for prediction, necessitating the use of sophisticated machine learning techniques for effective modeling\cite{jain2020review}. In our research, we conducted a thorough assessment of various machine learning algorithms for both classification and regression tasks relevant to predicting wildfires. We found that for classifying different types or stages of wildfires, the XGBoost model outperformed others in terms of accuracy and robustness. Meanwhile, the Random Forest regression model showed superior results in predicting the extent of wildfire-affected areas, excelling in both prediction error and explained variance. Additionally, we developed a hybrid neural network model that integrates numerical data and image information for simultaneous classification and regression. To gain deeper insights into the decision-making processes of these models and identify key contributing features, we utilized eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques, including TreeSHAP, LIME, Partial Dependence Plots (PDP), and Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping (Grad-CAM). These interpretability tools shed light on the significance and interplay of various features, highlighting the complex factors influencing wildfire predictions. Our study not only demonstrates the effectiveness of specific machine learning models in wildfire-related tasks but also underscores the critical role of model transparency and interpretability in environmental science applications.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

↑