arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
北美退伍军人节(Veterans Day),12 日无更新
arXiv 2403.04818cs.LGphysics.ao-ph
收藏

AI时代的风暴潮建模:使用基于LSTM的机器学习提升预报精度

Storm Surge Modeling in the AI ERA: Using LSTM-based Machine Learning for Enhancing Forecasting Accuracy

Aristotle University of Thessaloniki(塞萨洛尼基亚里士多德大学);Louisiana State University(路易斯安那州立大学);The University of Texas at Austin(德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校)

Stefanos Giaremis, Noujoud Nader, Clint Dawson, Hartmut Kaiser, Carola Kaiser, Efstratios Nikidis

AI总结:

本研究针对物理风暴潮模型存在系统误差的问题,提出基于LSTM的机器学习架构校正偏差,仅用6场飓风数据训练即可达到良好效果,可用于实时预报校正,且方法可迁移至其他物理模拟场景。

摘要:

自然过程的物理模拟结果通常无法完全反映真实世界,这一问题的成因包括模拟所覆盖的物理过程存在局限、模拟精度有限等。在本研究中,我们提出并分析了一种基于LSTM的深度学习网络机器学习(ML)架构,用于捕捉和预测风暴潮预报模型的系统误差,该误差的参照基准是飓风事件期间测站观测到的真实水位数据。本研究的总体目标是预测物理模型的系统误差,并在事后利用该误差提升模拟结果的精度。我们在美国沿海地区61场历史飓风构成的数据集上训练了所提出的机器学习模型,并在对2022年飓风伊恩(Ian)的模拟水位预测数据进行偏差校正时测试了模型性能。结果表明,对于机器学习模型未见过的飓风伊恩,在初始数据所覆盖的所有测站坐标处,我们的模型都能持续提升预报精度。此外,我们通过检验使用初始训练集不同子集的影响——这些子集包含在飓风路径方面相对相似或不同的若干飓风——发现,仅使用包含6场飓风的子集就能获得质量相近的偏差校正效果。这一重要结果意味着,我们可以将预训练的机器学习模型应用于实时飓风预报结果,以实现偏差校正并提升生成的模拟精度。本研究是构建适用于全模拟区域的实时风暴潮预报偏差校正系统的重要第一步,同时也提出了一种具有高度可迁移性、可业务化应用的方法,可用于提升风暴潮预报之外的各类物理模拟场景的精度。

英文摘要:

Physics simulation results of natural processes usually do not fully capture the real world. This is caused for instance by limits in what physical processes are simulated and to what accuracy. In this work we propose and analyze the use of an LSTM-based deep learning network machine learning (ML) architecture for capturing and predicting the behavior of the systemic error for storm surge forecast models with respect to real-world water height observations from gauge stations during hurricane events. The overall goal of this work is to predict the systemic error of the physics model and use it to improve the accuracy of the simulation results post factum. We trained our proposed ML model on a dataset of 61 historical storms in the coastal regions of the U.S. and we tested its performance in bias correcting modeled water level data predictions from hurricane Ian (2022). We show that our model can consistently improve the forecasting accuracy for hurricane Ian -- unknown to the ML model -- at all gauge station coordinates used for the initial data. Moreover, by examining the impact of using different subsets of the initial training dataset, containing a number of relatively similar or different hurricanes in terms of hurricane track, we found that we can obtain similar quality of bias correction by only using a subset of six hurricanes. This is an important result that implies the possibility to apply a pre-trained ML model to real-time hurricane forecasting results with the goal of bias correcting and improving the produced simulation accuracy. The presented work is an important first step in creating a bias correction system for real-time storm surge forecasting applicable to the full simulation area. It also presents a highly transferable and operationally applicable methodology for improving the accuracy in a wide range of physics simulation scenarios beyond storm surge forecasting.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

↑