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arXiv 2204.09501cs.LGcs.AIcs.CE
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一种用于风暴潮预报的先进时空卷积循环神经网络

An advanced spatio-temporal convolutional recurrent neural network for storm surge predictions

University of Notre Dame(圣母大学)

Ehsan Adeli, Luning Sun, Jianxun Wang, Alexandros A. Taflanidis

摘要:

在这篇研究论文中,我们研究了人工神经网络模型的能力,以模拟风暴潮的风暴路径/大小/强度的历史的基础上,利用数据库的合成风暴模拟。传统上,采用计算流体动力学求解器来数值求解偏微分方程的风暴潮控制方程,并且通常模拟成本非常高。本研究提出了一个神经网络模型,可以预测风暴潮,由数据库的合成风暴模拟通知。该模型可以作为非常昂贵的CFD求解器的快速且经济的仿真器。神经网络模型使用用于驱动CFD求解器的风暴路径参数进行训练,并且模型的输出是在感兴趣的空间域内跨多个节点的预测风暴潮的时间序列演变。一旦模型经过训练,就可以根据新的风暴路径输入进行进一步的预测。所开发的神经网络模型是一个时间序列模型,一个长短期记忆,一个变种的递归神经网络,其中丰富了卷积神经网络。采用卷积神经网络来捕捉数据的空间相关性。因此,数据的时间和空间相关性通过上述模型的组合,即ConvLSTM模型来捕获。由于该问题是一个序列到序列的时间序列问题,因此设计了一个编码器-解码器ConvLSTM模型。在模型训练过程中还采用了其他一些技术来丰富模型的性能。结果表明,所提出的卷积循环神经网络优于高斯过程实现检查合成风暴数据库。

英文摘要:

In this research paper, we study the capability of artificial neural network models to emulate storm surge based on the storm track/size/intensity history, leveraging a database of synthetic storm simulations. Traditionally, Computational Fluid Dynamics solvers are employed to numerically solve the storm surge governing equations that are Partial Differential Equations and are generally very costly to simulate. This study presents a neural network model that can predict storm surge, informed by a database of synthetic storm simulations. This model can serve as a fast and affordable emulator for the very expensive CFD solvers. The neural network model is trained with the storm track parameters used to drive the CFD solvers, and the output of the model is the time-series evolution of the predicted storm surge across multiple nodes within the spatial domain of interest. Once the model is trained, it can be deployed for further predictions based on new storm track inputs. The developed neural network model is a time-series model, a Long short-term memory, a variation of Recurrent Neural Network, which is enriched with Convolutional Neural Networks. The convolutional neural network is employed to capture the correlation of data spatially. Therefore, the temporal and spatial correlations of data are captured by the combination of the mentioned models, the ConvLSTM model. As the problem is a sequence to sequence time-series problem, an encoder-decoder ConvLSTM model is designed. Some other techniques in the process of model training are also employed to enrich the model performance. The results show the proposed convolutional recurrent neural network outperforms the Gaussian Process implementation for the examined synthetic storm database.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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