A new model for generating survival trajectories and data based on applying an autoencoder of a specific structure is proposed. It solves three tasks. First, it provides predictions in the form of the expected event time and the survival function for a new generated feature vector on the basis of the Beran estimator. Second, the model generates additional data based on a given training set that would supplement the original dataset. Third, the most important, it generates a prototype time-dependent trajectory for an object, which characterizes how features of the object could be changed to achieve a different time to an event. The trajectory can be viewed as a type of the counterfactual explanation. The proposed model is robust during training and inference due to a specific weighting scheme incorporating into the variational autoencoder. The model also determines the censored indicators of new generated data by solving a classification task. The paper demonstrates the efficiency and properties of the proposed model using numerical experiments on synthetic and real datasets. The code of the algorithm implementing the proposed model is publicly available.
Generating multi-vehicle interaction scenarios can benefit motion planning and decision making of autonomous vehicles when on-road data is insufficient. This paper presents an efficient approach to generate varied multi-vehicle interaction scenarios that can both adapt to different road geometries and inherit the key interaction patterns in real-world driving. Towards this end, the available multi-vehicle interaction scenarios are temporally segmented into several interpretable fundamental building blocks, called traffic primitives, via the Bayesian nonparametric learning. Then, the changepoin…
The application of deep learning in survival analysis (SA) allows utilizing unstructured and high-dimensional data types uncommon in traditional survival methods. This allows to advance methods in fields such as digital health, predictive maintenance, and churn analysis, but often yields less interpretable and intuitively understandable models due to the black-box character of deep learning-based approaches. We close this gap by proposing 1) a multi-task variational autoencoder (VAE) with survival objective, yielding survival-oriented embeddings, and 2) a novel method HazardWalk that allows to…
Interpretable Survival Analysis for Heart Failure Risk Prediction
Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；VA Palo Alto Health Care System（帕洛阿尔托退伍军人医疗保健系统）；Kaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research（凯撒医疗北加州研究部）；Stanford Medicine（斯坦福医学院）
Neural Diffusion Processes for Physically Interpretable Survival Prediction
Department of Computing Sciences, Bocconi University, Milano, Italy（博科尼大学计算科学系，米兰，意大利）；Computational Biomedicine Unit, University of Torino, Torino, Italy（都灵大学计算生物医学单元，都灵，意大利）
Centre for Addiction and Mental Health（成瘾与心理健康中心）；University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学）；Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh（爱丁堡皇家医院）
Prediction of survival in patients diagnosed with a brain tumour is challenging because of heterogeneous tumour behaviours and responses to treatment. Better estimations of prognosis would support treatment planning and patient support. Advances in machine learning have informed development of clinical predictive models, but their integration into clinical practice is almost non-existent. One reasons for this is the lack of interpretability of models. In this paper, we use a novel brain tumour dataset to compare two interpretable rule list models against popular machine learning approaches for…
PISA: An AI Pipeline for Interpretable-by-design Survival Analysis Providing Multiple Complexity-Accuracy Trade-off Models
a Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands；b Amsterdam University Medical Centers location Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands；c Cancer Center Amsterdam, Cancer Treatment；Quality of Life, Amsterdam, The Netherlands；d Centrum Wiskunde \& Informatica, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
University of Birmingham（伯明翰大学）；University of Melbourne（墨尔本大学）；RMIT University（皇家墨尔本理工大学）
Survival risk prediction using gene expression data is important in making treatment decisions in cancer. Standard neural network (NN) survival analysis models are black boxes with lack of interpretability. More interpretable visible neural network (VNN) architectures are designed using biological pathway knowledge. But they do not model how pathway structures can change for particular cancer types. We propose a novel Mutated Pathway VNN or MPVNN architecture, designed using prior signaling pathway knowledge and gene mutation data-based edge randomization simulating signal flow disruption. As …
AutoScore-Survival: Developing interpretable machine learning-based time-to-event scores with right-censored survival data
Duke-NUS Medical School（杜克-新加坡国立大学医学院）；Duke University（杜克大学）；Singapore General Hospital（新加坡中央医院）；National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）；Singapore Health Services（新加坡保健服务集团）
TrajSurv: Learning Continuous Latent Trajectories from Electronic Health Records for Trustworthy Survival Prediction
Department of Biomedical Informatics and Medical Education University of Washington（生物医学信息学与医学教育系，华盛顿大学）；Fred Hutch Cancer Center（Fred Hutch癌症中心）；Department of Biomedical Informatics Harvard University（生物医学信息学系，哈佛大学）
EAGLE: Efficient Alignment of Generalized Latent Embeddings for Multimodal Survival Prediction with Interpretable Attribution Analysis
Dept. of Machine Learning Moffitt Cancer Center（机器学习系莫菲特癌症中心）；Dept. of Cancer Epidemiology Moffitt Cancer Center（癌症流行病学系莫菲特癌症中心）；Dept. of Electrical Engineering University of South Florida（电气工程系佛罗里达州立大学）
Interpretable Machine Learning for Survival Analysis
Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology – BIPS（莱比锡预防研究与流行病学研究所）；Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Bremen（不莱梅大学数学与计算机科学学院）；Faculty of Mathematics and Information Science, Warsaw University of Technology（华沙技术大学数学与信息科学学院）；Faculty of Mathematics, Informatics and Mechanics, University of Warsaw（华沙大学数学、信息学与力学学院）；Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen（哥本哈根大学公共卫生系）
DPsurv: Dual-Prototype Evidential Fusion for Uncertainty-Aware and Interpretable Whole-Slide Image Survival Prediction
National University of Singapore；National University of Singapore Guangzhou Research Translation；Innovation Institute；Imperial College London；Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences \& Peking Union Medical College；Hunan University；Institute of High Performance Computing, Agency for Science, Technology；Research (A STAR)
In medicine, survival analysis studies the time duration to events of interest such as mortality. One major challenge is how to deal with multiple competing events (e.g., multiple disease diagnoses). In this work, we propose a transformer-based model that does not make the assumption for the underlying survival distribution and is capable of handling competing events, namely SurvTRACE. We account for the implicit \emph{confounders} in the observational setting in multi-events scenarios, which causes selection bias as the predicted survival probability is influenced by irrelevant factors. To su…
We propose predictive models that estimate GBM patients' health status of one-year after treatments (Classification task), predict the long-term prognosis of GBM patients at an individual level (Survival task). We used total of 467 GBM patients' clinical profile consists of 13 features and two follow-up dates. For baseline models of random forest classifier(RFC) and random survival forest model (RSF), we introduced generalized linear model (GLM), support vector machine (SVM) and Cox proportional hazardous model (COX), accelerated failure time model (AFT) respectively. After preprocessing and p…
We have built a computational model for individual aging trajectories of health and survival, which contains physical, functional, and biological variables, and is conditioned on demographic, lifestyle, and medical background information. We combine techniques of modern machine learning with an interpretable interaction network, where health variables are coupled by explicit pair-wise interactions within a stochastic dynamical system. Our dynamic joint interpretable network (DJIN) model is scalable to large longitudinal data sets, is predictive of individual high-dimensional health trajectorie…
One scale to rule them all: interpretable multi-scale Deep Learning for predicting cell survival after proton and carbon ion irradiation
Department of Physics, University of Trento（特伦托大学物理系）；Trento Institute for Fundamental Physics and Application (TIFPA)（特伦托基础物理与应用研究所）；Department of Radiation Oncology (Maastro), GROW School for Oncology and Reproduction, Maastricht University Medical Centre（马斯特里赫特大学医学中心放射肿瘤学系）；Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare - Laboratori Nazionali di Legnaro（国家核物理研究所-莱格纳罗国家实验室）；Department of Physics & Astronomy, Louisiana State University (LSU)（路易斯安州立大学物理与天文学系）；Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering, University of Trento（特伦托大学土木、环境与机械工程系）
Disease progression models are instrumental in predicting individual-level health trajectories and understanding disease dynamics. Existing models are capable of providing either accurate predictions of patients prognoses or clinically interpretable representations of disease pathophysiology, but not both. In this paper, we develop the phased attentive state space (PASS) model of disease progression, a deep probabilistic model that captures complex representations for disease progression while maintaining clinical interpretability. Unlike Markovian state space models which assume memoryless dy…
Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；Enolink Inc.（Enolink公司）；Seoul National University Hospital Healthcare System Gangnam Center（首尔大学医院医疗系统江南中心）
With increasing interest in applying machine learning to develop healthcare solutions, there is a desire to create interpretable deep learning models for survival analysis. In this paper, we extend the Neural Additive Model (NAM) by incorporating pairwise feature interaction networks and equip these models with loss functions that fit both proportional and non-proportional extensions of the Cox model. We show that within this extended framework, we can construct non-proportional hazard models, which we call TimeNAM, that significantly improve performance over the standard NAM model architectur…
University of Oxford（牛津大学）；University of California Los Angeles（加州大学洛杉矶分校）
Accurate prediction of disease trajectories is critical for early identification and timely treatment of patients at risk. Conventional methods in survival analysis are often constrained by strong parametric assumptions and limited in their ability to learn from high-dimensional data, while existing neural network models are not readily-adapted to the longitudinal setting. This paper develops a novel convolutional approach that addresses these drawbacks. We present MATCH-Net: a Missingness-Aware Temporal Convolutional Hitting-time Network, designed to capture temporal dependencies and heteroge…
Functional Decomposition and Shapley Interactions for Interpreting Survival Models
Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research（预防研究与流行病学研究所）；Faculty of Mathematics（数学系）；Computer Science, University of Bremen（计算机科学，不莱梅大学）；University of Warsaw（华沙大学）；Centre for Credible AI, Warsaw University of Technology（可信人工智能中心，华沙技术大学）；Bielefeld University（比勒菲尔德大学）
University of Southampton（南安普顿大学）；University of Bristol（布里斯托大学）；The Alan Turing Institute（阿兰·图灵研究所）
We generalise the problem of reward modelling (RM) for reinforcement learning (RL) to handle non-Markovian rewards. Existing work assumes that human evaluators observe each step in a trajectory independently when providing feedback on agent behaviour. In this work, we remove this assumption, extending RM to capture temporal dependencies in human assessment of trajectories. We show how RM can be approached as a multiple instance learning (MIL) problem, where trajectories are treated as bags with return labels, and steps within the trajectories are instances with unseen reward labels. We go on t…
Variable selection is an important problem in statistics and machine learning. Copula Entropy (CE) is a mathematical concept for measuring statistical independence and has been applied to variable selection recently. In this paper we propose to apply the CE-based method for variable selection to survival analysis. The idea is to measure the correlation between variables and time-to-event with CE and then select variables according to their CE value. Experiments on simulated data and two real cancer data were conducted to compare the proposed method with two related methods: random survival for…
Interpretable (not just posthoc-explainable) heterogeneous survivor bias-corrected treatment effects for assignment of postdischarge interventions to prevent readmissions
Mederrata（梅德拉塔）；National Institutes of Health（美国国立卫生研究院）；University of Vermont（佛蒙特大学）
Similarity-driven multi-view linear reconstruction (SiMLR) is an algorithm that exploits inter-modality relationships to transform large scientific datasets into smaller, more well-powered and interpretable low-dimensional spaces. SiMLR contributes a novel objective function for identifying joint signal, regularization based on sparse matrices representing prior within-modality relationships and an implementation that permits application to joint reduction of large data matrices, each of which may have millions of entries. We demonstrate that SiMLR outperforms closely related methods on superv…
A Structural FHMM for Interpretable Disease Trajectories in T2DM
Swiss Data Science Center (SDSC)（瑞士数据科学中心（SDSC））；Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL)（洛桑联邦理工学院）；ETH Zürich（苏黎世联邦理工学院）；Institute of Pharmaceutical Sciences（药学院）
Recent advances in tracking sensors and pose estimation software enable smart systems to use trajectories of skeleton joint locations for supervised learning. We study the problem of accurately recognizing sign language words, which is key to narrowing the communication gap between hard and non-hard of hearing people. Our method explores a geometric feature space that we call `sub-skeleton' aspects of movement. We assess similarity of feature space trajectories using natural, speed invariant distance measures, which enables clear and insightful nearest neighbor classification. The simplicity a…
Breiman's random forest (RF) can be interpreted as an implicit kernel generator,where the ensuing proximity matrix represents the data-driven RF kernel. Kernel perspective on the RF has been used to develop a principled framework for theoretical investigation of its statistical properties. However, practical utility of the links between kernels and the RF has not been widely explored and systematically evaluated.Focus of our work is investigation of the interplay between kernel methods and the RF. We elucidate the performance and properties of the data driven RF kernels used by regularized lin…
King’s College London（伦敦国王学院）；Institute for Infocomm Research, A*STAR（新加坡科技研究局资讯通信研究院）
Cancer is a complex disease with significant social and economic impact. Advancements in high-throughput molecular assays and the reduced cost for performing high-quality multi-omics measurements have fuelled insights through machine learning . Previous studies have shown promise on using multiple omic layers to predict survival and stratify cancer patients. In this paper, we developed a Supervised Autoencoder (SAE) model for survival-based multi-omic integration which improves upon previous work, and report a Concrete Supervised Autoencoder model (CSAE), which uses feature selection to jointl…
Nagoya University（名古屋大学）；RIKEN Center for Advanced Intelligence Project（日本理化学研究所先进智能项目）；Doshisha University（同志社大学）；Tokai University（东海大学）；Kyushu University（九州大学）
Extracting the interaction rules of biological agents from movement sequences pose challenges in various domains. Granger causality is a practical framework for analyzing the interactions from observed time-series data; however, this framework ignores the structures and assumptions of the generative process in animal behaviors, which may lead to interpretational problems and sometimes erroneous assessments of causality. In this paper, we propose a new framework for learning Granger causality from multi-animal trajectories via augmented theory-based behavioral models with interpretable data-dri…
