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arXiv 2106.09424cs.LGcs.AI
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用于脑肿瘤生存预测的可解释机器学习分类器

Interpretable Machine Learning Classifiers for Brain Tumour Survival Prediction

Centre for Addiction and Mental Health(成瘾与心理健康中心);University of Edinburgh(爱丁堡大学);Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh(爱丁堡皇家医院)

Colleen E. Charlton, Michael Tin Chung Poon, Paul M. Brennan, Jacques D. Fleuriot

摘要:

由于肿瘤行为和治疗反应的异质性,预测诊断为脑肿瘤的患者的生存率具有挑战性。更好的预后估计将支持治疗计划和患者支持。机器学习的进步为临床预测模型的发展提供了信息,但它们与临床实践的整合几乎不存在。其中一个原因是模型缺乏可解释性。在本文中,我们使用一个新的脑肿瘤数据集比较两个可解释的规则列表模型对流行的机器学习方法的脑肿瘤生存预测。所有模型都使用标准性能指标进行定量评估。还对规则列表的可解释性和临床实用性进行了定性评估。黑盒机器学习模型的可解释性评估使用两个事后解释技术,石灰和SHAP。我们的结果表明,黑盒模型仅略微优于规则列表。我们证明了规则列表算法产生了与临床专业知识相一致的简单决策列表。相比之下,事后可解释性方法应用于黑箱模型可能会产生不可靠的解释本地模型的预测。模型的可解释性对于理解预测性能的差异和整合到临床实践中至关重要。

英文摘要:

Prediction of survival in patients diagnosed with a brain tumour is challenging because of heterogeneous tumour behaviours and responses to treatment. Better estimations of prognosis would support treatment planning and patient support. Advances in machine learning have informed development of clinical predictive models, but their integration into clinical practice is almost non-existent. One reasons for this is the lack of interpretability of models. In this paper, we use a novel brain tumour dataset to compare two interpretable rule list models against popular machine learning approaches for brain tumour survival prediction. All models are quantitatively evaluated using standard performance metrics. The rule lists are also qualitatively assessed for their interpretability and clinical utility. The interpretability of the black box machine learning models is evaluated using two post-hoc explanation techniques, LIME and SHAP. Our results show that the rule lists were only slightly outperformed by the black box models. We demonstrate that rule list algorithms produced simple decision lists that align with clinical expertise. By comparison, post-hoc interpretability methods applied to black box models may produce unreliable explanations of local model predictions. Model interpretability is essential for understanding differences in predictive performance and for integration into clinical practice.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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