Branching processes in varying environment with generation-dependent immigration
Miguel González, Goetz Kersting, Carmen Minuesa, Inés del Puerto
备注：
18 pages, 2 figures. This is the preprint version of the paper published in the journal Stochastic Models (see the official journal website at https://doi.org/10.1080/15326349.2019.1575754)
A branching process in varying environment with generation-dependent immigration is a modification of the standard branching process in which immigration is allowed and the reproduction and immigration laws may vary over the generations. This flexibility makes the process more appropriate to model real populations due to the fact that the stability in the reproductive capacity and in the immigration laws are not usually fulfilled. In this setting, we study the extinction problem, providing a necessary and sufficient condition for the certain extinction of the population. The asymptotic behaviour of the model is analysed for those processes with critical offspring distributions, according with the classification established in Kersting (2017), and when the immigration means stabilize to a positive value. More specifically, we establish that the asymptotic distribution of the process -- under a suitable normalization -- belongs to the gamma distribution family.
We provide a simple set of sufficient conditions for the weak convergence of discrete Galton-Watson branching processes with immigration to continuous time and continuous state branching processes with immigration.
In this paper we consider a triangular array of branching processes with non-stationary immigration. We prove a weak convergence of properly normalized branching processes with immigration to deterministic function under assumption that immigration is rowwise $ψ-$mixing and the offspring mean tends to its critical value 1, immigration mean and variance controlled by regularly varying functions. Moreover, we obtain a fluctuation limit theorem for branching process with immigration when immigration is $m-$dependent where $m$ may tend to infinity with the row index at a certain rate. In this case…
The nonlinear branching process with immigration is constructed as the pathwise unique solution of a stochastic integral equation driven by Poisson ran- dom measures. Some criteria for the regularity, recurrence, ergodicity and strong ergodicity of the process are then established.
In the spirit of Duqesne and Winkel (2007) and Berestycki et al. (2011) we show that supercritical continuous-state branching process with a general branching mechanism and general immigration mechanism is equal in law to a continuous-time Galton Watson process with immigration with Poissonian dressing. The result also characterises the limiting backbone decomposition which is predictable from the work on consistent growth of Galton-Watson trees with immigration in Cao and Winkel (2010).
Branching processes and Fleming-Viot processes are two main models in stochastic population theory. Incorporating an immigration in both models, we generalize the results of Shiga (1990) and Birkner et al. (2005) which respectively connect the Feller diffusion with the classical Fleming-Viot process and the alpha-stable continuous state branching process with the Beta(2-alpha, alpha)-generalized Fleming-Viot process. In a recent work, a new class of probability-measure valued processes, called M-generalized Fleming-Viot processes with immigration, has been set up in duality with the so-called …
We prove a general fluctuation limit theorem for Galton-Watson branching processes with immigration. The limit is a time-inhomogeneous OU type process driven by a spectrally positive Levy process. As applications of this result, we obtain some asymptotic estimates for the conditional least-squares estimator of the offspring means and variances of the offspring and immigration distributions.
We observe the Galton-Watson Branching Processes. Limit properties of transition functions and their convergence to invariant measures are investigated.
This is a survey on recent progresses in the study of branching processes with immigration, generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes and affine Markov processes. We mainly focus on the applications of skew convolution semigroups and the connections in those processes.
We observe the continuous-time Markov Branching Process without high-order moments and allowing Immigration. Limit properties of transition functions and their convergence to invariant measures are investigated. Main mathematical tool is regularly varying generating functions with remainder.
We construct a continuous state branching process with immigration (CBI) whose immigration depends on the CBI itself and we recover a continuous state branching process (CB). This provides a dual construction of the pruning at nodes of CB introduced by the authors in a previous paper. This construction is a natural way to model neutral mutation. Using exponential formula, we compute the probability of extinction of the original type population in a critical or sub-critical quadratic branching, conditionally on the non extinction of the total population.
Limit behaviour of temporal and contemporaneous aggregations of independent copies of a stationary multitype Galton-Watson branching process with immigration is studied in the so-called iterated and simultaneous cases, respectively. In both cases, the limit process is a zero mean Brownian motion with the same covariance function under third order moment conditions on the branching and immigration distributions. We specialize our results for generalized integer-valued autoregressive processes and single-type Galton-Watson processes with immigration as well.
Under natural assumptions a Feller type diffusion approximation is derived for critical multi-type branching processes with immigration when the offspring mean matrix is primitive (in other words, positively regular). Namely, it is proved that a sequence of appropriately scaled random step functions formed from a sequence of critical primitive multi-type branching processes with immigration converges weakly towards a squared Bessel process supported by a ray determined by the Perron vector of the offspring mean matrix.
For multitype branching processes with immigration evolving in a random environment and producing a final product we find the tail distribution of the size of the final product accumulated in the system for a life period. Using this result we investigate the tail distribution of the busy periods of the branching type polling systems with random service disciplines and random positive switch-over times
A multi-type continuous state and continuous time branching process with immigration satisfying some moment conditions is identified as a pathwise unique strong solution of certain stochastic differential equation with jumps.
We study the estimation of two-type continuous-state branching processes with immigration (CBI-processes). The ergodicity of the processes is proved. We also establish the strong consistency and central limit theorems of the conditional least squares estimators and the weighted conditional least squares estimators of the drift and diffusion coefficients based on low frequency observations.
We consider the subcritical contact branching random walk on Zd in continuous time with the arbitrary number of offspring and with immigration. We prove the existence of the steady state (statistical equilibrium).
We establish recurrence and transience criteria for critical branching processes in random environment with immigration. These results are then applied to discuss recurrence and transience of a recurrent random walk in a random environment on Z that will be disturbed by cookies inducing a drift to the right of strength 1.
For a positive continuous function f satisfying some standard conditions, we study the f-moments of continuous-state branching processes with or without immigration. The main results give criteria for the existence of the f-moments. The characterization of the processes in terms of stochastic equations given by Dawson and Li (2012) plays an essential role in the proofs.
We prove the existence and pathwise uniqueness of the solution to a stochastic integral equation driven by Poisson random measures based on Kuznetsov measures for a continuous-state branching process. That gives a direct construction of the sample path of a continuous-state branching process with dependent immigration. The immigration rates depend on the population size via some functions satisfying a Yamada--Watanabe type condition. We only assume the existence of the first moment of the process. The existence of excursion law for the continuous-state branching process is not required. By spe…
Under a fourth order moment condition on the branching and a second order moment condition on the immigration mechanisms, we show that an appropriately scaled projection of a supercritical and irreducible continuous state and continuous time branching process with immigration on certain left non-Perron eigenvectors of the branching mean matrix is asymptotically mixed normal. With an appropriate random scaling, under some conditional probability measure, we prove asymptotic normality as well. In case of a non-trivial process, under a first order moment condition on the immigration mechanism, we…
In this work we investigate limit theorems for the time-averaged process $\left(\frac{1}{t}\int_0^t X_s^x ds\right)_{t\geq 0}$ where $X^x$ is a subcritical continuous-state branching processes with immigration (CBI processes) starting in $x \geq 0$. Under a second moment condition on the branching and immigration measures we first prove the law of large numbers in $L^2$ and afterward establish the central limit theorem. Assuming additionally that the big jumps of the branching and immigration measures have finite exponential moments of some order, we prove in our main result the large deviatio…
Under natural assumptions, a Feller type diffusion approximation is derived for critical, irreducible multi-type continuous state and continuous time branching processes with immigration. Namely, it is proved that a sequence of appropriately scaled random step functions formed from a critical, irreducible multi-type continuous state and continuous time branching process with immigration converges weakly towards a squared Bessel process supported by a ray determined by the Perron vector of a matrix related to the branching mechanism of the branching process in question.
We consider a supercritical Galton-Watson branching process with immigration. It is well known that under suitable conditions on the offspring and immigration distributions, there is a finite, strictly positive limit ${\mathcal{W}}$ for the normalized population size. Small value probabilities for ${\mathcal{W}}$ are obtained. Precise effects of the balance between offspring and immigration distributions are characterized.
Let (Zn) be a branching process with immigration in an independent and identically distributed random environment. Under necessary moment conditions, we show the exact convergence rate in the central limit theorem on logZn by using the convergence rates of the logarithm of submartingale and the result of the corresponding random walk on the Berry-Esseen bound.
A critical branching process with immigration which evolve in a random environment is considered. Assuming that immigration is not allowed when there are no individuals in the aboriginal population we investigate the tail distribution of the so-called life period of the process, i.e., the length of the time interval between the moment when the process is initiated by a positive number of particles and the moment when there are no individuals in the population for the first time.
In this paper, we consider $n$-type Markov branching processes with immigration and resurrection. The uniqueness criteria are first established. Then, a new method is found and the explicit expression of extinction probability is successfully obtained in the absorption case, the mean extinction time is also given. The recurrence and ergodicity criteria are given if the state ${\bf 0}$ is not absorptive. Finally, if the resurrection rates are same as the immigration rates, the branching property and decay property are discussed in detail, it is shown that the process is a superimposition of a $…
Recursions for moments of multi-type continuous state and continuous time branching process with immigration are derived. It turns out that the $k$-th (mixed) moments and the $k$-th (mixed) central moments are polynomials of the initial value of the process, and their degree are at most $k$ and $\lfloor k/2 \rfloor$, respectively.
In this paper, we investigate the asymptotic behaviors of the critical branching process with immigration $\{Z_n, n\ge 0\}$. First we get some estimation for the probability generating function of $Z_n$. Based on it, we get a large deviation for $Z_{n+1}/Z_n$. Lower and upper deviations for $Z_n$ are also studied. As a by-product, an upper deviation for $\max_{1\le i\le n} Z_i$ is obtained.
In this article we provide a sufficient condition for a continuous-state branching process with immigration (CBI process) to not hit its boundary, i.e. for non-extinction. Our result applies to arbitrary dimension $d \geq 1$ and is formulated in terms of an integrability condition for its immigration and branching mechanisms $F$ and $R$. The proof is based on a suitable comparison with one-dimensional CBI processes and an existing result for one-dimensional CBI processes. The same technique is also used to provide a sufficient condition for transience of multi-type CBI processes.
Continuous state branching processes with immigration are studied. We are particularly concerned with the associated (non-symmetric) Dirichlet form. After observing that gamma distributions are only reversible distributions for this class of models, we prove that every generalized gamma convolution is a stationary distribution of the process with suitably chosen branching mechanism and with continuous immigration. For such non-reversible processes, the strong sector condition is discussed in terms of a characteristic called the Thorin measure. In addition, some connections with notion from non…
We consider the class of continuous-state branching processes with immigration (CBI-processes), introduced by Kawazu and Watanabe (1971) and their limit distributions as time tends to infinity. We determine the Levy-Khintchine triplet of the limit distribution and give an explicit description in terms of the characteristic triplets of the Levy subordinator and the spectrally positive Levy process, which describe the immigration resp. branching mechanism of the CBI-process. This representation allows us to describe the support of the limit distribution and characterise its absolute continuity a…
Multi-type branching processes with immigration generated by point processes
Faculty of Mathematics and Informatics, Sofia University ”St. Kliment Ohridski”（索非亚大学克利门特·奥赫里德斯基数学与信息学院）；Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences（保加利亚科学院数学与信息研究所）
We investigate subcritical Galton-Watson branching processes with immigration in a random environment. Using Goldie's implicit renewal theory we show that under general Cramér condition the stationary distribution has a power law tail. We determine the tail process of the stationary Markov chain, prove point process convergence, and convergence of the partial sums. The original motivation comes from Kesten, Kozlov and Spitzer seminal 1975 paper, which connects a random walk in a random environment model to a special Galton-Watson process with immigration in a random environment. We obtain new …
A Galton-Watson branching process with immigration evolving in a random environment is considered. Its associated random walk is assumed to be oscillating. We prove a functional limit theorem in which the process under consideration is normalized by a random coefficient depending on the random environment only. The distribution of the limiting process is described in terms of a strictly stable Levy process and a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables which is independent of this process.
We consider subcritical branching processes with immigration which evolve under the influence of a random environment and study the tail distribution of life periods of such processes defined as the length of the time interval between the moment when first invader (or invaders) came to an empty site until the moment when the site becomes empty again. We prove that the tail distribution decays with exponential rate. The main tools are the change of measure and some conditional limit theorems for random walks.
The purpose of this article is to observe that the zero sets of continuous-state branching processes with immigration (CBI) are infinitely divisible regenerative sets. Indeed, they can be constructed by the procedure of random cutouts introduced by Mandelbrot in 1972. We then show how very precise information about the zero sets of CBI can be obtained in terms of the branching and immigrating mechanism.
In this paper the asymptotic behavior of a critical multi-type branching process with immigration is described when the offspring mean matrix is irreducible, in other words, when the process is indecomposable. It is proved that sequences of appropriately scaled random step functions formed from periodic subsequences of a critical indecomposable multi-type branching process with immigration converge weakly towards a process supported by a ray determined by the Perron vector of the offspring mean matrix. The types can be partitioned into nonempty mutually disjoint subsets (according to communica…
We prove and extend some results stated by Mark Pinsky: Limit theorems for continuous state branching processes with immigration [Bull. Amer. Math. Soc. 78(1972), 242--244]. Consider a continuous-state branching process with immigration $(Y_t,t\geq 0)$ with branching mechanism $Ψ$ and immigration mechanism $Φ$ (CBI$(Ψ,Φ)$ for short). We shed some light on two different asymptotic regimes occurring when $\int_{0}\frac{Φ(u)}{|Ψ(u)|}du<\infty$ or $\int_{0}\frac{Φ(u)}{|Ψ(u)|}du=\infty$. We first observe that when $\int_{0}\frac{Φ(u)}{|Ψ(u)|}du<\infty$, supercritical CBIs have a growth rate dictate…
We consider a stationary continuous model of random size population with non-neutral mutations using a continuous state branching process with non-homogeneous immigration. We assume the type (or mutation) of the immigrants is random given by a constant mutation rate measure. We determine some genealogical properties of this process such as: distribution of the time to the most recent common ancestor (MRCA), bottleneck effect at the time to the MRCA (which might be drastic for some mutation rate measures), favorable type for the MRCA, asymptotics of the number of ancestors.
Guided by the relationship between the breadth-first walk of a rooted tree and its sequence of generation sizes, we are able to include immigration in the Lamperti representation of continuous-state branching processes. We provide a representation of continuous-state branching processes with immigration by solving a random ordinary differential equation driven by a pair of independent Levy processes. Stability of the solutions is studied and gives, in particular, limit theorems (of a type previously studied by Grimvall, Kawazu and Watanabe and by Li) and a simulation scheme for continuous-stat…
Under a first order moment condition on the immigration mechanism, we show that an appropriately scaled supercritical and irreducible multi-type continuous state and continuous time branching process with immigration (CBI process) converges almost surely. If an $x \log(x)$ moment condition on the branching mechanism does not hold, then the limit is zero. If this $x \log(x)$ moment condition holds, then we prove $L_1$ convergence as well. The projection of the limit on any left non-Perron eigenvector of the branching mean matrix is vanishing. If, in addition, a suitable extra power moment condi…
We consider a continuous-time symmetric branching random walk on multidimensional lattices with immigration and infinite number of initial particles. We assume that at every lattice point a process of birth and death of particles is described by a Bienayme-Galton- Watson branching process. The assumption on immigration of particles is that a new particle can appear at every lattice point from the outside. The subject of the study is a limit distribution of the particle field on the lattice. The differential equations for correlation functions for the number of particles at an arbitrary time mo…
We study the two-dimensional joint distribution of the first hitting time of a constant level by a continuous-state branching process with immigration and their primitive stopped at this time. We show an explicit expression of its Laplace transform. Using this formula, we study the polarity of zero and provide a necessary and sufficient criterion for transience or recurrence. We follow the approach of Shiga, T. (1990) [A recurrence criterion for Markov processes of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type. Probability Theory and Related Fields, 85(4), 425-447], by finding some $λ$-invariant functions for the g…
We consider a branching random walk with immigration in a random environment, where the environment is a stationary and ergodic sequence indexed by time. We focus on the asymptotic properties of the sequence of measures $(Z_n)$ that count the number of particles of generation $n$ located in a Borel set of real line. In the present work, a series of limit theorems related to the above counting measures are established, including a central limit theorem, a moderate deviation principle and a large deviation result as well as a convergence theorem of the free energy.
We consider a multitype branching process with immigration in a random environment introduced by Key in [Ann. Probab. 15 (1987) 344--353]. It was shown by Key that, under the assumptions made in [Ann. Probab. 15 (1987) 344--353], the branching process is subcritical in the sense that it converges to a proper limit law. We complement this result by a strong law of large numbers and a central limit theorem for the partial sums of the process. In addition, we study the asymptotic behavior of oscillations of the branching process, that is, of the random segments between successive times when the e…
We consider a fixed-point equation for a non-negative integer-valued random variable, that appears in branching processes with state-independent immigration. A similar equation appears in the analysis of a single-server queue with a homogeneous Poisson input, feedback and permanent customer(s). It is known that the solution to this equation uniquely exists under mild first and logarithmic moments conditions. We find further the tail asymptotics of the distribution of the solution when the immigration size and branch size distributions are heavy-tailed. We assume that the distributions of inter…
We develop a new methodology for the fluctuation theory of continuous-time skip-free Markov chains, extending the recent work of Choi and Patie [5] for discrete-time skip-free Markov chains. As the main application we use it to derive a full set of fluctuation identities regarding exiting a finite or infinite interval for Markov branching processes with immigration, thereby uncovering many new results for this classical family of continuous-time Markov chains. The theory also allows us to recover in a simple manner fluctuation identities for skip-free downward compound Poisson processes.
We study an iterated temporal and contemporaneous aggregation of $N$ independent copies of a strongly stationary subcritical Galton-Watson branching process with regularly varying immigration having index $α\in (0, 2)$. Limits of finite dimensional distributions of appropriately centered and scaled aggregated partial sum processes are shown to exist when first taking the limit as $N \to \infty$ and then the time scale $n \to \infty$. The limit process is an $α$-stable process if $α\in (0, 1) \cup (1, 2)$, and a deterministic line with slope $1$ if $α= 1$.
This article studies the stability of solutions of equilibrium equations arising in so-called resource dependent branching processes. We argue that these new models, building on the model already presented by Bruss (1984 a), refined and elaborated in Bruss and Duerinckx (2015) and now extended to allow immigration, are suitable to cope with specific properties of human populations. Our main interest is here to understand under which conditions immigration may lead to an equilibrium. At the same time, we would like to advertize resource dependent branching processes as possibly the best models …
Examples of interacting particle systems on $\mathbb{Z}$ as Pfaffian point processes: coalescing branching random walks and annihilating random walks with immigration
We consider a branching model for a population of dividing cells infected by parasites. Each cell receives parasites by inheritance from its mother cell and independent contamination from outside the population. Parasites multiply randomly inside the cell and are shared randomly between the two daughter cells when the cell divides. The law of the number of parasites which contaminate a given cell depends only on whether the cell is already infected or not. We determine the asymptotic behavior of the number of parasites in a cell line, which follows a branching process in random environment wit…
A family of continuous-state branching processes with immigration are constructed as the solution flow of a stochastic equation system driven by time-space noises. The family can be regarded as an inhomogeneous increasing path-valued branching process with immigration. Two nonlocal branching immigration superprocesses can be defined from the flow. We identify explicitly the branching and immigration mechanisms of those processes. The results provide new perspectives into the tree-valued Markov processes of Aldous and Pitman [Ann. Inst. Henri Poincaré Probab. Stat. 34 (1998) 637-686] and Abraha…
We consider a branching random walk on $d$-dimensional real space with immigration in a time-dependent random environment. Let $Z_n(\mathbf t)$ be the so-called partition function of the process, namely, the moment generating function of the counting measure describing the dispersion of individuals at time $n$. For $\mathbf t$ fixed, the logarithm $\log Z_n(\mathbf t)$ satisfies a central limit theorem. By studying the logarithmic moments of the intrinsic submartingale of the system and its convergence rates, we establish the uniform and non-uniform Berry-Esseen bounds corresponding to the cen…
