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arXiv 2401.15475eess.SYcs.SYmath.DSmath.OC
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流行病种群博弈与扰动最优响应动力学

Epidemic Population Games And Perturbed Best Response Dynamics

Shinkyu Park, Jair Certorio, Nuno C. Martins, Richard J. La

AI总结:

本文通过动态收益机制和扰动最优响应动力学建模战略智能体行为,利用系统论与无源性方法保证预算约束下流行病平衡点的全局渐近稳定性,并量化感染峰值与成本之间的权衡。

摘要:

本文提出一种方法,通过精心设计的奖励鼓励更安全的行为,以减缓战略智能体种群中的流行病传播。这些奖励根据流行病的演化状态自适应调整,并由我们希望设计的动态收益机制赋予。我们使用改进的SIRS模型来跟踪流行病在智能体战略选择作用下的进展。通过采用扰动最优响应演化动力学来建模种群战略行为,我们扩展了先前相关工作,从而允许智能体对奖励和可用策略内在成本的感知中存在噪声。我们方法的核心是使用系统论方法和无源性概念获得一个Lyapunov函数,确保在预算约束下感染率最小化的地方病平衡点具有全局渐近稳定性。我们利用该Lyapunov函数分析流行病传播速率如何受收益机制动力学时间尺度的影响。此外,我们推导出种群感染比例和社会规划者为控制传播所必须承担的瞬时成本的任意时间上界,从而能够量化峰值感染率与相应成本之间的权衡。针对一类单参数扰动最优响应模型,我们提出了一种从数据中学习模型参数的方法。

英文摘要:

This paper proposes an approach to mitigate epidemic spread in a population of strategic agents by encouraging safer behaviors through carefully designed rewards. These rewards, which adapt to the evolving state of the epidemic, are ascribed by a dynamic payoff mechanism we seek to design. We use a modified SIRS model to track how the epidemic progresses in response to the agents' strategic choices. By employing perturbed best response evolutionary dynamics to model the population's strategic behavior, we extend previous related work so as to allow for noise in the agents' perceptions of the rewards and intrinsic costs of the available strategies. Central to our approach is the use of system-theoretic methods and passivity concepts to obtain a Lyapunov function, ensuring the global asymptotic stability of an endemic equilibrium with minimized infection prevalence under budget constraints. We leverage the Lyapunov function to analyze how the epidemic's spread rate is influenced by the time scale of the payoff mechanism's dynamics. Additionally, we derive anytime upper bounds on both the infectious fraction of the population and the instantaneous cost a social planner must incur to control the spread, allowing us to quantify the trade-off between peak infection prevalence and the corresponding cost. For a class of one-parameter perturbed best response models, we propose a method to learn the model's parameter from data.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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