伊斯兰法、西欧法与中东长期大分流的根源：一项比较实证研究（800–1600年）
Islamic Law, Western European Law and the Roots of Middle East's Long Divergence: a Comparative Empirical Investigation (800-1600)
AI总结：
本文利用800–1800年城市人口与法学院数据，通过三重差分、合成控制和双重差分方法，论证13世纪后伊斯兰法神圣化及法律创新缺失导致中东城市经济停滞。
摘要：
本文考察伊斯兰法律制度对中东相对于拉丁欧洲的比较经济衰落所产生的贡献，这一衰落自中世纪晚期以来即可观察到。为此，作者探讨伊斯兰法的神圣化，及其将 Sharia（沙里亚）视为最高、神圣且不可变更的法律文本这一核心取向——该过程在13世纪达到顶峰——是否对经济发展产生了影响。研究以800–1800年间伊斯兰国家145座城市和欧洲648座城市的人口规模作为经济发展水平的代理变量，构建了关于法学院（即 madaris，伊斯兰教法学院）数量的新估计，并评估其对前工业化经济发展的贡献。三重差分估计表明，在伊斯兰法神圣化之前，madrasa（伊斯兰教法学院）密度越高，预示着以更高城市增长为特征的更具活力的城市经济。13世纪法律的沙里亚神圣化得到巩固之后，法学院密度越大反而与停滞的人口规模相关联。研究表明，中东的经济衰落可部分归因于法律创新或其替代物的缺失；这为拉丁欧洲的经济崛起铺平了道路，在那里，开创性的法律改革引入了一系列有利于经济增长的法律创新。作者发现，在设有法学院的大学中接受训练的博学律师数量，与西欧城市人口呈高度正相关。反事实估计显示，如果所考察的几乎所有伊斯兰城市引入与西欧相当的法律创新，到1700年它们的规模本会大得多。通过使用一系列合成控制法和双重差分估计量，研究结果在大量模型设定检验下均保持稳健。
英文摘要：
We examine the contribution of Islamic legal institutions to the comparative economic decline of the Middle East behind Latin Europe, which can be observed since the late Middle Ages. To this end, we explore whether the sacralization of Islamic law and its focus on the Sharia as supreme, sacred and unchangeable legal text, which reached its culmination in the 13th century had an impact on economic development. We use the population size of 145 cities in Islamic countries and 648 European cities for the period 800-1800 as proxies for the level of economic development, and construct novel estimates of the number of law schools (i.e. madaris) and estimate their contribution to the pre-industrial economic development. Our triple-differences estimates show that a higher density of madrasas before the sacralization of Islamic law predicts a more vibrant urban economy characterized by higher urban growth. After the consolidation of the sharia sacralization of law in the 13th century, greater density of law schools is associated with stagnating population size. We show that the economic decline of the Middle East can be partly explained by the absence of legal innovations or substitutes of them, which paved the way for the economic rise of Latin Europe, where ground-breaking legal reforms introduced a series of legal innovations conducive for economic growth. We find that the number of learned lawyers trained in universities with law schools is highly and positively correlated with the western European city population. Our counterfactual estimates show that almost all Islamic cities under consideration would have had much larger size by the year 1700 if legal innovations comparable to those in Western Europe were introduced. By making use of a series of synthetic control and difference-in-differences estimators our findings are robust against a large number of model specification checks.
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