COVID-19 疫苗接种在奥特亚罗瓦新西兰的影响：一项建模研究
The impact of Covid-19 vaccination in Aotearoa New Zealand: a modelling study
AI总结：
该研究通过数学模型反事实分析，量化了新西兰 Covid-19 疫苗接种在 2022 至 2023 年间挽救的生命、避免的住院和寿命损失，并揭示了族裔接种不公平导致的毛利人超额死亡。
摘要：
奥特亚罗瓦新西兰在 2020 年和 2021 年实施了 Covid-19 消除策略，这使得绝大多数人口在接触病毒之前就完成了疫苗接种。该策略带来了全球最低的大流行病死亡率之一。然而，目前仍缺乏对疫苗接种在人群层面健康收益的定量估计。在此，我们使用一个经过验证的数学模型，研究在不同年龄和族裔群体中具有不同疫苗覆盖率水平的反事实情景。该模型在早期研究的基础上，加入了随年龄和时间变化的病例确认率、抗病毒药物的效果、改进的住院率估计，以及放松控制措施的影响。该模型曾在 2022 年和 2023 年用于情景分析并为新西兰政府提供政策建议。我们将每个反事实情景中的 Covid-19 住院人数、死亡人数和损失寿命年数与一个基线情景进行比较，该基线情景拟合了 2022 年 1 月至 2023 年 6 月期间的流行病学数据。我们的结果估计，在这 18 个月期间，疫苗挽救了 6650 人（95% 可信区间 [4424, 10180]）的生命，并避免了 74500 [51000, 115400] 个损失寿命年数和 45100 [34400, 55600] 例住院。在计入抗病毒药物收益之前进行同样的比较，疫苗挽救生命的估计数增加到 7604 [5080, 11942]。由于疫苗推广中的不公平现象，毛利人的疫苗接种率低于欧洲裔人群。我们的结果表明，如果疫苗接种率是公平的，那么在这一时期记录的 292 例毛利人 Covid-19 死亡中，估计有 11-26% 本可以避免。我们得出结论，Covid-19 疫苗接种极大地减轻了新西兰的健康负担，并且公平性需要成为未来疫苗接种规划的一个关键重点。
英文摘要：
Aotearoa New Zealand implemented a Covid-19 elimination strategy in 2020 and 2021, which enabled a large majority of the population to be vaccinated before being exposed to the virus. This strategy delivered one of the lowest pandemic mortality rates in the world. However, quantitative estimates of the population-level health benefits of vaccination are lacking. Here, we use a validated mathematical model to investigate counterfactual scenarios with differing levels of vaccine coverage in different age and ethnicity groups. The model builds on earlier research by adding age- and time-dependent case ascertainment, the effect of antiviral medications, improved hospitalisation rate estimates, and the impact of relaxing control measures. The model was used for scenario analysis and policy advice for the New Zealand Government in 2022 and 2023. We compare the number of Covid-19 hospitalisations, deaths, and years of life lost in each counterfactual scenario to a baseline scenario that is fitted to epidemiological data between January 2022 and June 2023. Our results estimate that vaccines saved 6650 (95% credible interval [4424, 10180]) lives, and prevented 74500 [51000, 115400] years of life lost and 45100 [34400, 55600] hospitalisations during this 18-month period. Making the same comparison before the benefit of antiviral medications is accounted for, the estimated number of lives saved by vaccines increases to 7604 [5080, 11942]. Due to inequities in the vaccine rollout, vaccination rates among Māori were lower than in people of European ethnicity. Our results show that, if vaccination rates had been equitable, an estimated 11-26% of the 292 Māori Covid-19 deaths that were recorded in this time period could have been prevented. We conclude that Covid-19 vaccination greatly reduced health burden in New Zealand and that equity needs to be a key focus of future vaccination programmes.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
