基于非参数指数的伊比利亚半岛农业干旱传播的多尺度分析
Multi-Scale Analysis of Agricultural Drought Propagation on the Iberian Peninsula Using Non-Parametric Indices
AI总结：
本文利用ERA5-Land再分析数据和多种非参数干旱指数，在月、季节及六个月尺度上分析了伊比利亚半岛气象干旱向农业干旱的传播特征，发现响应时间约1-2个月，多变量指数传播更快且识别事件更严重，并提出了一个具有平衡特性的新型综合农业干旱指数。
摘要：
本研究分析了一个多年再分析数据集（ERA5-Land），该数据集涵盖了伊比利亚半岛的多次干旱事件，并特别关注2005年的干旱事件。研究探讨了从气象干旱向农业干旱转变的机制及其特征。研究采用了多种非参数标准化干旱指数。对于气象干旱，使用了标准化降水蒸散发指数（SPEI）；对于农业干旱，使用了标准化土壤湿度指数（SSI）、多变量标准化干旱指数（MSDI）以及标准化降水、蒸散发和土壤湿度指数（SPESMI），同时利用哥白尼欧洲干旱观测站（EDO）提供的光合有效辐射吸收比例（FAPAR）异常，考察了这些指数识别严重干旱地区相对植被胁迫的能力。研究采用基于游程理论的统计方法，在月、季节和六个月时间尺度上分析了干旱传播的若干特征，包括响应时间尺度、传播概率和滞后时间。得到的响应时间尺度较快，约为1-2个月，且发生概率随起始气象干旱的严重程度增加而增大。农业干旱的持续时间短于气象干旱，其开始时间有所延迟，但结束时间相同。多变量指数所得结果表明，与单变量指数相比，其传播过程更快，且倾向于识别出更严重的事件。总体而言，农业指数在评估伊比利亚半岛植被胁迫方面是有效的。一种新开发的综合农业干旱指数能够平衡其他所采用指数的特性，可能对未来的研究有用。
英文摘要：
The present study examined a multi-year reanalysis dataset (ERA5-Land) including numerous drought events across the Iberian Peninsula, with a specific emphasis on the 2005 episode. The mechanisms underlying the transition from meteorological to agricultural drought and its features were investigated. Various non-parametric standardized drought indices were utilized. For meteorological droughts, the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was employed, while the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI), Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI), and Standard Precipitation, Evapotranspiration and Soil Moisture Index (SPESMI) were utilized for agricultural droughts, while their ability to identify relative vegetation stress in areas affected by severe droughts was investigated using the Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) Anomaly provided by the Copernicus European Drought Observatory (EDO). A statistical approach based on run theory was employed to analyze several characteristics of drought propagation, such as response time scale, propagation probability, and lag time at monthly, seasonal, and six-month time scales. The retrieved response time scale was fast, about 1-2 months, and the probability of occurrence increased with the severity of the originating meteorological drought. The duration of agricultural drought was shorter than that of meteorological drought, with a delayed onset but the same term. The results obtained by multi-variate indices showed a more rapid propagation process and a tendency to identify more severe events than uni-variate indices. In general terms, agricultural indices were found to be effective in assessing vegetation stress in the Iberian Peninsula. A newly developed combined agricultural drought index was found to balance the characteristics of the other adopted indices and may be useful for future studies.
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