伊比利亚半岛北部大尺度水文模型的综合敏感性分析
Integrated sensitivity analysis of a macroscale hydrologic model in the north of the Iberian Peninsula
摘要：
基于过程的水文模型允许识别流域的行为，提供对支配径流产生的径流机制的水文过程的数学描述。本研究主要通过三个部分对伊比利亚半岛Duero河流域的31个水源子流域进行了VIC模型的宏观应用：（1）VIC模型在所有子流域的校正和验证;（2）关于选择用于校准的土壤参数的综合灵敏度分析，以及（3）校准算法的等效性和效率的评估。的校准和验证过程中表现出良好的结果，大多数子流域的计算效率的方式使用洗牌复杂的进化算法。通过对每个子流域的10 000个参数样本进行蒙特卡罗模拟的输出进行后处理，采用标准化回归系数法获得敏感性指标。这允许量化水量平衡组件对所选参数的灵敏度，以进行校准，并了解它们之间的强依赖性。等效性假设的最终评估表明，有许多参数样本的性能与使用校准算法计算的最佳值一样好。对于几乎所有分析的子流域，校准算法都是有效的，达到了最佳拟合。蒙特卡罗模拟和校准算法的使用对于维也纳国际中心模型在其他河流流域的其他可行应用都是有益的。
英文摘要：
Process-based hydrologic models allow to identify the behavior of a basin providing a mathematical description of the hydrologic processes underlying the runoff mechanisms that govern the streamflow generation. This study focuses on a macroscale application of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model over 31 headwater subwatersheds belonging to the Duero River Basin, located in the Iberian Peninsula, through a three-part approach: (1) the calibration and validation of the VIC model for all the subwatersheds; (2) an integrated sensitivity analysis concerning the soil parameters chosen for the calibration, and (3) an assessment of equifinality and the efficiency of the calibration algorithm. The calibration and validation processes showed good results for most of the subwatersheds in a computationally efficient way using the Shuffled-Complex-Evolution algorithm. The sensitivity measures were obtained with the Standardized Regression Coefficients method through a post-process of the outputs of a Monte Carlo simulation carried out for 10 000 parameter samples for each subwatershed. This allowed to quantify the sensitivity of the water balance components to the selected parameters for the calibration and understanding the strong dependencies between them. The final assessment of the equifinality hypothesis manifested that there are many parameter samples with performances as good as the optimum, calculated using the calibration algorithm. For almost all the analyzed subwatersheds the calibration algorithm resulted efficient, reaching the optimal fit. Both the Monte Carlo simulation and the use of a calibration algorithm will be of interest for other feasible applications of the VIC model in other river basins.
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