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arXiv 2310.04441math.OC
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基于全国多地点多资源随机规划的能源规划框架

A Nationwide Multi-Location Multi-Resource Stochastic Programming Based Energy Planning Framework

Razan A. H. Al-Lawati, Tasnim Ibn Faiz, Md. Noor-E-Alam

AI总结:

本文提出可推广的全国多地点多资源能源规划框架,采用两阶段随机规划、Benders分解与k-means情景构建,并以美国为例验证其相较确定性模型的决策价值。

摘要:

全球能源消耗与需求的增长,已迫使许多国家推进转型,在其电力市场中纳入更加多样化的能源。为高效利用可获得的燃料资源,必须同时对所有能源进行优化。然而,可变可再生能源发电机固有的波动性使确定性模型失效。另一方面,涵盖全国所有发电源的综合随机模型可能在计算上难以处理。本研究从政策制定者的视角提出了一个综合性国家能源规划框架,该框架可推广至任何国家、地区,或能源贸易协定中的任何国家集团。鉴于美国在全球范围内相对的国土面积和能源消耗量,本文选取美国作为案例研究。研究采用两阶段随机规划方法,并使用基于情景的 Benders 分解建模方法,以实现大规模模型的计算效率。数据来自美国能源信息署的在线数据集合。不确定参数的情景通过 k-means 聚类算法构建。研究从财务角度比较了多种情形,通过识别可实施的成本降低策略为政策制定提供信息。研究结果强调了促进资源协调的重要性,并展示了增加互换和可再生能源容量对总体收益的影响。此外,本研究凸显了在制定能源规划决策时,随机优化建模相较于确定性建模的价值。

英文摘要:

The global increase in energy consumption and demand has forced many countries to transition into including more diverse energy sources in their electricity market. To efficiently utilize the available fuel resources, all energy sources must be optimized simultaneously. However, the inherent variability in variable renewable energy generators makes deterministic models ineffective. On the other hand, comprehensive stochastic models, including all sources of generation across a nation, can become computationally intractable. This work proposes a comprehensive national energy planning framework from a policymaker's perspective, which is generalizable to any country, region, or any group of countries in energy trade agreements. Given its relative land area and energy consumption globally, the United States is selected as a case study. A two-stage stochastic programming approach is adopted, and a scenario-based Benders decomposition modeling approach is employed to achieve computational efficiency for the large-scale model. Data is obtained from the U.S. Energy Information Administration's online data collection. Scenarios for the uncertain parameters are developed using a k-means clustering algorithm. Various cases are compared from a financial perspective to inform policymaking by identifying implementable cost-reduction strategies. The findings underscore the importance of promoting resource coordination and demonstrate the impact of increasing interchange and renewable energy capacity on overall gains. Moreover, the study highlights the value of stochastic optimization modeling compared to deterministic modeling to make energy planning decisions.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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