早期参与如何决定 GitHub 项目的长期持续活动？
How Early Participation Determines Long-Term Sustained Activity in GitHub Projects?
AI总结：
本文结合 Blumberg 绩效模型、XGBoost 与 LIME，基于 GitHub 项目前三个月参与数据预测长期活跃度，揭示经验、投入、非代码贡献和社区结构的作用。
摘要：
尽管开源模式在软件开发中具有诸多优势，但开源项目始终难以维持。以往关于开源可持续性的研究主要关注已经达到一定成熟度的项目（例如拥有社区、发布版本和下游项目的项目）。然而，处于初创阶段的（可持续）开源项目的发展受到的关注有限，我们认为理解早期可持续性决定因素对项目发起者、孵化者、新参与者和用户都至关重要。本文旨在探究早期参与因素与项目长期可持续性之间的关系。我们采用一种结合 Blumberg 绩效模型与机器学习的新颖方法，对 290,255 个 GitHub 项目的可持续性进行预测。具体而言，我们基于 290,255 个 GitHub 项目的早期参与情况（活动的前三个月）训练 XGBoost 模型，并使用 LIME 对模型进行解释。我们定量表明，如果早期参与者具有 OSS 项目孵化的先前经验，并表现出集中的关注和稳定的投入，他们会对项目未来的持续活动产生积极影响。非代码贡献者的参与以及详细的贡献文档也会促进项目的持续活动。与个人项目相比，建立一个由更有经验的核心开发者和更活跃的外围开发者组成的社区，对于组织型项目十分重要。本研究为可持续开源项目的孵化和识别提供了独特见解，而且我们的可解释预测方法也能够为开源项目发起者和新参与者提供指导。
英文摘要：
Although the open source model bears many advantages in software development, open source projects are always hard to sustain. Previous research on open source sustainability mainly focuses on projects that have already reached a certain level of maturity (e.g., with communities, releases, and downstream projects). However, limited attention is paid to the development of (sustainable) open source projects in their infancy, and we believe an understanding of early sustainability determinants is crucial for project initiators, incubators, newcomers, and users. In this paper, we aim to explore the relationship between early participation factors and long-term project sustainability. We leverage a novel methodology combining the Blumberg model of performance and machine learning to predict the sustainability of 290,255 GitHub projects. Specificially, we train an XGBoost model based on early participation (first three months of activity) in 290,255 GitHub projects and we interpret the model using LIME. We quantitatively show that early participants have a positive effect on project's future sustained activity if they have prior experience in OSS project incubation and demonstrate concentrated focus and steady commitment. Participation from non-code contributors and detailed contribution documentation also promote project's sustained activity. Compared with individual projects, building a community that consists of more experienced core developers and more active peripheral developers is important for organizational projects. This study provides unique insights into the incubation and recognition of sustainable open source projects, and our interpretable prediction approach can also offer guidance to open source project initiators and newcomers.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
