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arXiv 2307.06010math.PRq-bio.PE
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平均场相互作用的多类型生灭过程及其在系统发育动力学中的应用

Mean-field interacting multi-type birth-death processes with a view to applications in phylodynamics

William S. DeWitt, Steven N. Evans, Ella Hiesmayr, Sebastian Hummel

AI总结:

本文提出一种平均场相互作用的多类型生灭过程,证明其在无限系综极限下收敛于确定性轨迹,并给出能同时建模承载能力和频率依赖选择且保持似然可处理的特例。

摘要:

多类型生灭过程是从系统发育树推断跨生物学尺度进化动力学方法的基础,涵盖从深时物种宏观进化到快速病毒进化和体细胞增殖。当前系统发育生灭模型的一个局限是,它们需要限制性的线性假设,以获得可处理的消息传递似然,但这也排除了个体之间的相互作用。许多基本进化过程——例如环境承载能力或频率依赖选择——都涉及相互作用,并可能在某些系统中强烈影响动力学。在此,我们引入一种多类型生灭过程,该过程与焦点过程的一组副本系综处于平均场相互作用中。我们证明,在相当一般的条件下,系综随机演化的相互作用场在无限系综极限下收敛于确定性轨迹。在此极限下,副本有效解耦,自洽相互作用表现为焦点过程无穷小生成元中的非线性。我们研究了一个足够丰富的特例,既能建模承载能力和频率依赖选择,又在系统发育生灭模型背景下产生可处理的消息传递似然。

英文摘要:

Multi-type birth-death processes underlie approaches for inferring evolutionary dynamics from phylogenetic trees across biological scales, ranging from deep-time species macroevolution to rapid viral evolution and somatic cellular proliferation. A limitation of current phylogenetic birth-death models is that they require restrictive linearity assumptions that yield tractable message-passing likelihoods, but that also preclude interactions between individuals. Many fundamental evolutionary processes -- such as environmental carrying capacity or frequency-dependent selection -- entail interactions, and may strongly influence the dynamics in some systems. Here, we introduce a multi-type birth-death process in mean-field interaction with an ensemble of replicas of the focal process. We prove that, under quite general conditions, the ensemble's stochastically evolving interaction field converges to a deterministic trajectory in the limit of an infinite ensemble. In this limit, the replicas effectively decouple, and self-consistent interactions appear as nonlinearities in the infinitesimal generator of the focal process. We investigate a special case that is rich enough to model both carrying capacity and frequency-dependent selection while yielding tractable message-passing likelihoods in the context of a phylogenetic birth-death model.

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