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arXiv 2305.20004stat.MLcs.LGphysics.data-an

学习求解贝叶斯逆问题:使用高斯和流导向的摊销变分推断方法

Learning to solve Bayesian inverse problems: An amortized variational inference approach using Gaussian and Flow guides

School of Mechanical Engineering, Purdue University(普渡大学机械工程学院)

Sharmila Karumuri, Ilias Bilionis

AI总结:

本文提出通过摊销变分推断学习数据到后验的映射,使用高斯或条件归一化流引导,实现贝叶斯逆问题的实时推断,与MCMC结果一致。

摘要:

逆问题,即从实验数据中估计物理模型的参数,在科学和工程中无处不在。贝叶斯公式是黄金标准,因为它缓解了不适定问题并量化了认知不确定性。由于解析后验通常不可用,人们求助于马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛采样或近似变分推断。然而,对于每一组新数据,推断都需要从头重新运行。这一缺点限制了贝叶斯公式在实时场景中的应用,例如工程系统的健康监测和医学诊断。本文的目标是开发一种方法,通过学习贝叶斯逆映射(即从数据到后验的映射)来实现实时推断。我们的方法如下。我们将后验分布参数化为数据的函数。本文概述了两种不同的方法来实现这一点。第一种方法使用摊销的全秩高斯引导来参数化后验,通过神经网络实现。第二种方法利用条件归一化流引导,采用条件可逆神经网络来处理目标后验任意复杂的情况。在两种方法中,我们通过摊销变分推断来学习网络参数,这涉及在所有与模型兼容的可能数据集上最大化证据下界的期望。我们通过解决一组来自科学和工程的基准问题来展示我们的方法。我们的结果表明,我们方法的后验估计与通过马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛获得的相应真实值一致。一旦训练完成,我们的方法仅需神经网络的一次前向传播即可为给定的观测提供后验分布。

英文摘要:

Inverse problems, i.e., estimating parameters of physical models from experimental data, are ubiquitous in science and engineering. The Bayesian formulation is the gold standard because it alleviates ill-posedness issues and quantifies epistemic uncertainty. Since analytical posteriors are not typically available, one resorts to Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling or approximate variational inference. However, inference needs to be rerun from scratch for each new set of data. This drawback limits the applicability of the Bayesian formulation to real-time settings, e.g., health monitoring of engineered systems, and medical diagnosis. The objective of this paper is to develop a methodology that enables real-time inference by learning the Bayesian inverse map, i.e., the map from data to posteriors. Our approach is as follows. We parameterize the posterior distribution as a function of data. This work outlines two distinct approaches to do this. The first method involves parameterizing the posterior using an amortized full-rank Gaussian guide, implemented through neural networks. The second method utilizes a Conditional Normalizing Flow guide, employing conditional invertible neural networks for cases where the target posterior is arbitrarily complex. In both approaches, we learn the network parameters by amortized variational inference which involves maximizing the expectation of evidence lower bound over all possible datasets compatible with the model. We demonstrate our approach by solving a set of benchmark problems from science and engineering. Our results show that the posterior estimates of our approach are in agreement with the corresponding ground truth obtained by Markov chain Monte Carlo. Once trained, our approach provides the posterior distribution for a given observation just at the cost of a forward pass of the neural network.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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