多能源耦合电网不确定性下碳中和供热需求覆盖的战略规划
Strategic Planning of Carbon-Neutral Heating Demand Coverage Under Uncertainty in a Coupled Multi-Energy Grid
AI总结：
针对多能源耦合电网中用户供热技术选择不确定性带来的扩建投资风险，本文提出以用户为中心的鲁棒优化规划方法，通过比例偏差区间建模价格不确定性，以汉堡为案例验证了不同密度区域的最优供热方案及策略鲁棒性。
摘要：
多能源电网中整合天然气、区域供热与电网已被证明可提供灵活性并避免配电系统运行瓶颈。这种整合假设采用自上而下的电网规划方法且完全掌握用户行为，但实际中用户基于成本和政府法规决定是否采用供热技术。该行为高度不确定，依赖供热技术成本和能源价格波动，用户行为不确定性增加了电网扩建投资风险。针对这一挑战，本文提出以用户为中心的规划方法，采用鲁棒优化对价格不确定性建模以降低电网扩建投资风险，能源价格不确定性通过带比例偏差的区间不确定性建模，使规划者、运营商和监管机构能预测不同地理区域特定供热技术的 adoption rate 并优先扩建所需电网。通过在鲁棒约束下最小化成本函数，该策略确保对能源价格不确定性的鲁棒性。将鲁棒优化方法应用于汉堡案例研究，优化结果代表用户决策，在不同基准配电网上分析了用户决策对电网的影响。研究得出：高密度区域扩建区域供热是碳中和的低风险投资；低密度区域电气化支持分散式热泵；电力扩建不可行的区域，氢气电网可行；不确定性增加导致更保守的解决方案。
英文摘要：
Integrating the gas and district heating with the electrical grid in a multi-energy grid has been shown to provide flexibility and prevent bottlenecks in the operation of electrical distribution grids. This integration assumes a top-down grid planning approach and a perfect knowledge of consumer behaviour. In reality, consumers decides whether to adopt a heating technology based on costs and government regulation. This behavior is highly uncertain and depends on fluctuations in heating technology costs and energy prices. The uncertainty associated with consumer behavior increases the risk of investment in grid expansion. In response to this challenge, this paper proposes an approach with the consumer at the center of the planning method. Robust optimization is used to model the uncertainty in prices to reduce the risk of investment in grid expansion. The uncertainty in energy prices is modeled using interval uncertainty with a proportional deviation. This allows planners, operators and regulators to predict the adoption rate of certain heating technology in different geographical areas and prioritize the expansion of specific grids where they are required. By minimizing a cost function subject to robust constraints, the strategy ensures robustness against uncertainties in energy prices. This robust optimization approach is applied to Hamburg as a case study. The result of the optimization represents the consumer's decision. The impact of the consumer's decision on the electrical grid is analzed on different benchmark distribution grids. The study concludes that district heating expansion in high-density areas is a low-risk investment for carbon neutrality. In less dense areas, electrification supports decentralized heat pumps. Meanwhile, hydrogen gas grids are viable where electric expansion is impractical. Increased uncertainty leads to more conservative solutions.
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