Thompson sampling (TS) is a popular heuristic for action selection, but it requires sampling from a posterior distribution. Unfortunately, this can become computationally intractable in complex environments, such as those modeled using neural networks. Approximate posterior samples can produce effective actions, but only if they reasonably approximate joint predictive distributions of outputs across inputs. Notably, accuracy of marginal predictive distributions does not suffice. Epistemic neural networks (ENNs) are designed to produce accurate joint predictive distributions. We compare a range of ENNs through computational experiments that assess their performance in approximating TS across bandit and reinforcement learning environments. The results indicate that ENNs serve this purpose well and illustrate how the quality of joint predictive distributions drives performance. Further, we demonstrate that the \textit{epinet} -- a small additive network that estimates uncertainty -- matches the performance of large ensembles at orders of magnitude lower computational cost. This enables effective application of TS with computation that scales gracefully to complex environments.
College of Information and Computer Science（信息与计算机科学学院）；University of Massachusetts（马萨诸塞大学）；VinAI（VinAI研究院）
We study the effects of approximate inference on the performance of Thompson sampling in the $k$-armed bandit problems. Thompson sampling is a successful algorithm for online decision-making but requires posterior inference, which often must be approximated in practice. We show that even small constant inference error (in $α$-divergence) can lead to poor performance (linear regret) due to under-exploration (for $α<1$) or over-exploration (for $α>0$) by the approximation. While for $α> 0$ this is unavoidable, for $α\leq 0$ the regret can be improved by adding a small amount of forced exploratio…
Recent advances in deep reinforcement learning have made significant strides in performance on applications such as Go and Atari games. However, developing practical methods to balance exploration and exploitation in complex domains remains largely unsolved. Thompson Sampling and its extension to reinforcement learning provide an elegant approach to exploration that only requires access to posterior samples of the model. At the same time, advances in approximate Bayesian methods have made posterior approximation for flexible neural network models practical. Thus, it is attractive to consider a…
University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）
Thompson sampling for multi-armed bandit problems is known to enjoy favorable performance in both theory and practice. However, it suffers from a significant limitation computationally, arising from the need for samples from posterior distributions at every iteration. We propose two Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods tailored to Thompson sampling to address this issue. We construct quickly converging Langevin algorithms to generate approximate samples that have accuracy guarantees, and we leverage novel posterior concentration rates to analyze the regret of the resulting approximate Thomp…
McCombs School of Business, The University of Texas at Austin（德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校麦库姆斯商学院）
Thompson sampling is an efficient algorithm for sequential decision making, which exploits the posterior uncertainty to address the exploration-exploitation dilemma. There has been significant recent interest in integrating Bayesian neural networks into Thompson sampling. Most of these methods rely on global variable uncertainty for exploration. In this paper, we propose a new probabilistic modeling framework for Thompson sampling, where local latent variable uncertainty is used to sample the mean reward. Variational inference is used to approximate the posterior of the local variable, and sem…
We consider the stochastic linear contextual bandit problem with high-dimensional features. We analyze the Thompson sampling algorithm using special classes of sparsity-inducing priors (e.g., spike-and-slab) to model the unknown parameter and provide a nearly optimal upper bound on the expected cumulative regret. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that provides theoretical guarantees of Thompson sampling in high-dimensional and sparse contextual bandits. For faster computation, we use variational inference instead of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to approximate the posterio…
VITS : Variational Inference Thompson Sampling for contextual bandits
CMAP, CNRS, Ecole Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris（法国综合理工学院CMAP、法国国家科学研究中心、巴黎综合理工学院、巴黎理工学院）；Inria Paris（法国国家信息与自动化研究所巴黎分部）；Centre de Recherche des Cordeliers, INSERM, Universite de Paris, Sorbonne Universite（科尔德里耶研究中心、法国国家健康与医学研究院、巴黎大学、索邦大学）
UC Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；Princeton University（普林斯顿大学）；Facebook AI Research（脸书人工智能研究院）
Generalization is a central challenge for the deployment of reinforcement learning (RL) systems in the real world. In this paper, we show that the sequential structure of the RL problem necessitates new approaches to generalization beyond the well-studied techniques used in supervised learning. While supervised learning methods can generalize effectively without explicitly accounting for epistemic uncertainty, we show that, perhaps surprisingly, this is not the case in RL. We show that generalization to unseen test conditions from a limited number of training conditions induces implicit partia…
Lewis-Sigler Institute（刘易斯-西格勒研究所）；Princeton University（普林斯顿大学）；Department of Computer Science（计算机科学系）；Center for Statistics and Machine Learning（统计与机器学习中心）
We address the problem of regret minimization in logistic contextual bandits, where a learner decides among sequential actions or arms given their respective contexts to maximize binary rewards. Using a fast inference procedure with Polya-Gamma distributed augmentation variables, we propose an improved version of Thompson Sampling, a Bayesian formulation of contextual bandits with near-optimal performance. Our approach, Polya-Gamma augmented Thompson Sampling (PG-TS), achieves state-of-the-art performance on simulated and real data. PG-TS explores the action space efficiently and exploits high…
Volvo Car Corporation（沃尔沃汽车公司）；Chalmers University of Technology（查尔姆斯理工大学）
In this paper, we study bottleneck identification in networks via extracting minimax paths. Many real-world networks have stochastic weights for which full knowledge is not available in advance. Therefore, we model this task as a combinatorial semi-bandit problem to which we apply a combinatorial version of Thompson Sampling and establish an upper bound on the corresponding Bayesian regret. Due to the computational intractability of the problem, we then devise an alternative problem formulation which approximates the original objective. Finally, we experimentally evaluate the performance of Th…
Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）；DeepMind；Duke University（杜克大学）；Norwegian University of Science and Technology（挪威科技大学）
We propose a novel framework for structured bandits, which we call an influence diagram bandit. Our framework captures complex statistical dependencies between actions, latent variables, and observations; and thus unifies and extends many existing models, such as combinatorial semi-bandits, cascading bandits, and low-rank bandits. We develop novel online learning algorithms that learn to act efficiently in our models. The key idea is to track a structured posterior distribution of model parameters, either exactly or approximately. To act, we sample model parameters from their posterior and the…
Thompson sampling for improved exploration in GFlowNets
Mila – Québec AI Institute（米拉-魁北克人工智能研究所）；Université de Montréal（蒙特利尔大学）；DreamFold（DreamFold公司）；McGill University（麦吉尔大学）；Polytechnique Montréal（蒙特利尔理工学院）
The Bayes-Adaptive Markov Decision Process (BAMDP) formalism pursues the Bayes-optimal solution to the exploration-exploitation trade-off in reinforcement learning. As the computation of exact solutions to Bayesian reinforcement-learning problems is intractable, much of the literature has focused on developing suitable approximation algorithms. In this work, before diving into algorithm design, we first define, under mild structural assumptions, a complexity measure for BAMDP planning. As efficient exploration in BAMDPs hinges upon the judicious acquisition of information, our complexity measu…
Approximate Thompson sampling with Langevin Monte Carlo broadens its reach from Gaussian posterior sampling to encompass more general smooth posteriors. However, it still encounters scalability issues in high-dimensional problems when demanding high accuracy. To address this, we propose an approximate Thompson sampling strategy, utilizing underdamped Langevin Monte Carlo, where the latter is the go-to workhorse for simulations of high-dimensional posteriors. Based on the standard smoothness and log-concavity conditions, we study the accelerated posterior concentration and sampling using a spec…
University of Bologna（博洛尼亚大学）；Politecnico di Milano（米兰理工大学）
Uncertainty quantification has been extensively used as a means to achieve efficient directed exploration in Reinforcement Learning (RL). However, state-of-the-art methods for continuous actions still suffer from high sample complexity requirements. Indeed, they either completely lack strategies for propagating the epistemic uncertainty throughout the updates, or they mix it with aleatoric uncertainty while learning the full return distribution (e.g., distributional RL). In this paper, we propose Wasserstein Actor-Critic (WAC), an actor-critic architecture inspired by the recent Wasserstein Q-…
We consider the problem of detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) samples in deep reinforcement learning. In a value based reinforcement learning setting, we propose to use uncertainty estimation techniques directly on the agent's value estimating neural network to detect OOD samples. The focus of our work lies in analyzing the suitability of approximate Bayesian inference methods and related ensembling techniques that generate uncertainty estimates. Although prior work has shown that dropout-based variational inference techniques and bootstrap-based approaches can be used to model epistemic unce…
Robustness to out-of-distribution (OOD) data is an important goal in building reliable machine learning systems. Especially in autonomous systems, wrong predictions for OOD inputs can cause safety critical situations. As a first step towards a solution, we consider the problem of detecting such data in a value-based deep reinforcement learning (RL) setting. Modelling this problem as a one-class classification problem, we propose a framework for uncertainty-based OOD classification: UBOOD. It is based on the effect that an agent's epistemic uncertainty is reduced for situations encountered duri…
We study reinforcement learning (RL) in high dimensional episodic Markov decision processes (MDP). We consider value-based RL when the optimal Q-value is a linear function of d-dimensional state-action feature representation. For instance, in deep-Q networks (DQN), the Q-value is a linear function of the feature representation layer (output layer). We propose two algorithms, one based on optimism, LINUCB, and another based on posterior sampling, LINPSRL. We guarantee frequentist and Bayesian regret upper bounds of O(d sqrt{T}) for these two algorithms, where T is the number of episodes. We ext…
Designing efficient exploration is central to Reinforcement Learning due to the fundamental problem posed by the exploration-exploitation dilemma. Bayesian exploration strategies like Thompson Sampling resolve this trade-off in a principled way by modeling and updating the distribution of the parameters of the action-value function, the outcome model of the environment. However, this technique becomes infeasible for complex environments due to the computational intractability of maintaining probability distributions over parameters of outcome models of corresponding complexity. Moreover, the a…
Technical University Munich（慕尼黑工业大学）；Autonomous Intelligent Driving GmbH（自主智能驾驶有限公司）；Google（谷歌）
We present a sampling-free approach for computing the epistemic uncertainty of a neural network. Epistemic uncertainty is an important quantity for the deployment of deep neural networks in safety-critical applications, since it represents how much one can trust predictions on new data. Recently promising works were proposed using noise injection combined with Monte-Carlo sampling at inference time to estimate this quantity (e.g. Monte-Carlo dropout). Our main contribution is an approximation of the epistemic uncertainty estimated by these methods that does not require sampling, thus notably r…
Approximate Thompson Sampling for Learning Linear Quadratic Regulators with $O(\sqrt{T})$ Regret
Department of Applied Artificial Intelligence, Seoul National University of Science and Technology（应用人工智能系，首尔科学技术大学）；Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering and ASRI, Seoul National University（电气电子工程系和ASRI，首尔国立大学）
Duke University（杜克大学）；Adobe Research（Adobe研究（Adobe Research））；SUNY at Buffalo（纽约州立大学布法罗分校（SUNY at Buffalo））
Thompson sampling (TS) is a class of algorithms for sequential decision-making, which requires maintaining a posterior distribution over a model. However, calculating exact posterior distributions is intractable for all but the simplest models. Consequently, efficient computation of an approximate posterior distribution is a crucial problem for scalable TS with complex models, such as neural networks. In this paper, we use distribution optimization techniques to approximate the posterior distribution, solved via Wasserstein gradient flows. Based on the framework, a principled particle-optimiza…
In many biomedical, science, and engineering problems, one must sequentially decide which action to take next so as to maximize rewards. One general class of algorithms for optimizing interactions with the world, while simultaneously learning how the world operates, is the multi-armed bandit setting and, in particular, the contextual bandit case. In this setting, for each executed action, one observes rewards that are dependent on a given 'context', available at each interaction with the world. The Thompson sampling algorithm has recently been shown to enjoy provable optimality properties for …
We study the use of hypermodels to represent epistemic uncertainty and guide exploration. This generalizes and extends the use of ensembles to approximate Thompson sampling. The computational cost of training an ensemble grows with its size, and as such, prior work has typically been limited to ensembles with tens of elements. We show that alternative hypermodels can enjoy dramatic efficiency gains, enabling behavior that would otherwise require hundreds or thousands of elements, and even succeed in situations where ensemble methods fail to learn regardless of size. This allows more accurate a…
We design a new myopic strategy for a wide class of sequential design of experiment (DOE) problems, where the goal is to collect data in order to to fulfil a certain problem specific goal. Our approach, Myopic Posterior Sampling (MPS), is inspired by the classical posterior (Thompson) sampling algorithm for multi-armed bandits and leverages the flexibility of probabilistic programming and approximate Bayesian inference to address a broad set of problems. Empirically, this general-purpose strategy is competitive with more specialised methods in a wide array of DOE tasks, and more importantly, e…
Digital twins are emerging in many industries, typically consisting of simulation models and data associated with a specific physical system. One of the main reasons for developing a digital twin, is to enable the simulation of possible consequences of a given action, without the need to interfere with the physical system itself. Physical systems of interest, and the environments they operate in, do not always behave deterministically. Moreover, information about the system and its environment is typically incomplete or imperfect. Probabilistic representations of systems and environments may t…
DeepMind（深度思维）；Columbia Business School, Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学哥伦比亚商学院）
A fundamental challenge for any intelligent system is prediction: given some inputs, can you predict corresponding outcomes? Most work on supervised learning has focused on producing accurate marginal predictions for each input. However, we show that for a broad class of decision problems, accurate joint predictions are required to deliver good performance. In particular, we establish several results pertaining to combinatorial decision problems, sequential predictions, and multi-armed bandits to elucidate the essential role of joint predictive distributions. Our treatment of multi-armed bandi…
National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）；MIT（麻省理工学院）
Bayesian optimization (BO) is a prominent approach to optimizing expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions. The massive computational capability of edge devices such as mobile phones, coupled with privacy concerns, has led to a surging interest in federated learning (FL) which focuses on collaborative training of deep neural networks (DNNs) via first-order optimization techniques. However, some common machine learning tasks such as hyperparameter tuning of DNNs lack access to gradients and thus require zeroth-order/black-box optimization. This hints at the possibility of extending BO to the FL…
Mind Dreamer: Untethering Imagination via Active Causal Intervention on Latent Manifolds
Center for Brain-Inspired Computing Research, Department of Precision Instrument, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China（脑启发计算研究中心，精密仪器系，清华大学，北京，中国）；College of Computer Science and Technology, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China（计算机科学与技术学院，浙江大学，杭州，中国）；Pen-Tung Sah Institute of Micro-Nano Science and Technology, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China（彭途萨微纳米科学与技术研究院，厦门大学，厦门，中国）
Differential equations in general and neural ODEs in particular are an essential technique in continuous-time system identification. While many deterministic learning algorithms have been designed based on numerical integration via the adjoint method, many downstream tasks such as active learning, exploration in reinforcement learning, robust control, or filtering require accurate estimates of predictive uncertainties. In this work, we propose a novel approach towards estimating epistemically uncertain neural ODEs, avoiding the numerical integration bottleneck. Instead of modeling uncertainty …
Cooperative Variance Estimation and Bayesian Neural Networks for Disentangling Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainties
Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Mekelweg 2, Delft, 2628 CD, The Netherlands（代尔夫特理工大学机械工程学院）；School of Engineering, Brown University, 184 Hope St., Providence, RI 02912, USA（布朗大学工程学院）
Osaka university（大阪大学）；The University of Tokyo（东京大学）
Bayesian deep learning plays an important role especially for its ability evaluating epistemic uncertainty (EU). Due to computational complexity issues, approximation methods such as variational inference (VI) have been used in practice to obtain posterior distributions and their generalization abilities have been analyzed extensively, for example, by PAC-Bayesian theory; however, little analysis exists on EU, although many numerical experiments have been conducted on it. In this study, we analyze the EU of supervised learning in approximate Bayesian inference by focusing on its excess risk. F…
The Delta method is a classical procedure for quantifying epistemic uncertainty in statistical models, but its direct application to deep neural networks is prevented by the large number of parameters $P$. We propose a low cost variant of the Delta method applicable to $L_2$-regularized deep neural networks based on the top $K$ eigenpairs of the Fisher information matrix. We address efficient computation of full-rank approximate eigendecompositions in terms of either the exact inverse Hessian, the inverse outer-products of gradients approximation or the so-called Sandwich estimator. Moreover, …
This work addresses the efficiency concern on inferring a nonlinear contextual bandit when the number of arms $n$ is very large. We propose a neural bandit model with an end-to-end training process to efficiently perform bandit algorithms such as Thompson Sampling and UCB during inference. We advance state-of-the-art time complexity to $O(\log n)$ with approximate Bayesian inference, neural random feature mapping, approximate global maxima and approximate nearest neighbor search. We further propose a generative adversarial network to shift the bottleneck of maximizing the objective for selecti…
Michigan State University（密歇根州立大学）；Argonne National Laboratory（阿贡国家实验室）；Brookhaven National Laboratory（布鲁克海文国家实验室）
Robust machine learning models with accurately calibrated uncertainties are crucial for safety-critical applications. Probabilistic machine learning and especially the Bayesian formalism provide a systematic framework to incorporate robustness through the distributional estimates and reason about uncertainty. Recent works have shown that approximate inference approaches that take the weight space uncertainty of neural networks to generate ensemble prediction are the state-of-the-art. However, architecture choices have mostly been ad hoc, which essentially ignores the epistemic uncertainty from…
