突发事件中随机干扰和定向干扰对信息传播的影响
Impact of random and targeted disruptions on information diffusion during outbreaks
摘要：
疫情是复杂的多尺度过程，不仅受到细胞动力学和病原体有效繁殖和传播能力的影响，而且还受到人口动态和缓解措施有效性的影响。及时交换与新型病原体传播、居家隔离令和其他遏制措施有关的信息，可以有效遏制传染病，特别是在早期阶段，因为当时可能无法大规模提供测试基础设施、疫苗和其他医疗干预措施。使用一个多重流行病模型，包括一个信息层（模拟个人之间的信息交换）和一个空间嵌入的流行病层（代表人类接触网络），我们研究如何随机和有针对性的中断信息层（\eg，错误和故意攻击通信基础设施）影响疫情动态。我们将模型校准到2020年SARS-CoV-2大流行的早期爆发阶段。缓解运动在随机干扰下仍然有效，例如少数人之间的信息渠道失效。然而，有针对性地中断或破坏与大量个人交换信息的枢纽节点可能会突然改变疫情特征，例如达到感染高峰的时间。我们的研究结果强调了使用一个强大的通信基础设施，可以承受随机和有针对性的中断的重要性。
英文摘要：
Outbreaks are complex multi-scale processes that are impacted not only by cellular dynamics and the ability of pathogens to effectively reproduce and spread, but also by population-level dynamics and the effectiveness of mitigation measures. A timely exchange of information related to the spread of novel pathogens, stay-at-home orders, and other containment measures can be effective at containing an infectious disease, particularly during in the early stages when testing infrastructure, vaccines, and other medical interventions may not be available at scale. Using a multiplex epidemic model that consists of an information layer (modeling information exchange between individuals) and a spatially embedded epidemic layer (representing a human contact network), we study how random and targeted disruptions in the information layer (\eg, errors and intentional attacks on communication infrastructure) impact outbreak dynamics. We calibrate our model to the early outbreak stages of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in 2020. Mitigation campaign can still be effective under random disruptions, such as failure of information channels between a few individuals. However, targeted disruptions or sabotage of hub nodes that exchange information with a large number of individuals can abruptly change outbreak characteristics such as the time to reach the peak infection. Our results emphasize the importance of using a robust communication infrastructure that can withstand both random and targeted disruptions.
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