具有显式媒介季节动态的 Xylella fastidiosa 病害房室模型
A compartmental model for Xylella fastidiosa diseases with explicit vector seasonal dynamics
AI总结：
该研究构建含 P. spumarius 季节动态的 Xf 病害房室模型，用贝叶斯方法拟合欧洲 OQDS 与 ALSD 疫情数据，并识别关键传播参数及最优媒介联合防控策略。
摘要：
细菌 Xylella fastidiosa（Xf）在欧洲主要由沫蝉 Philaenus spumarius 传播，并已对橄榄树和扁桃树造成重大经济损失。理解决定具有相似性的病理系统中病害动态的因素，有助于设计以最小化传播链为重点的防控策略。本文提出了一个针对欧洲 Xf 所致病害的房室模型，该模型考虑了主要的相关流行病学过程，包括 P. spumarius 的季节动态。模型与欧洲两次重大 Xf 暴发的流行病学数据进行了对照：一次是在意大利普利亚由 pauca 亚种引起的橄榄快速病害综合征（OQDS），另一次是在西班牙马略卡由 multiplex 和 fastidiosa 亚种引起的扁桃叶灼病（ALSD）。利用贝叶斯推断框架，我们展示了该模型如何成功再现两种病害的总体田间数据。在全局敏感性分析中，媒介—植物和植物—媒介传播率以及媒介清除率，是决定受感染宿主种群峰值时间、发病率峰值和最终死亡宿主数量的最具影响力参数。我们还使用模型检验了不同的基于媒介的防控策略，结果表明，以提高媒介清除率同时减少年度新生媒介数量为重点的联合策略是病害防控的最优方案。
英文摘要：
The bacterium Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) is mainly transmitted by the spittlebug, Philaenus spumarius, in Europe, where it has caused significant economic damage to olive and almond trees. Understanding the factors that determine disease dynamics in pathosystems that share similarities can help design control strategies focused on minimizing transmission chains. Here we introduce a compartmental model for Xf-caused diseases in Europe that accounts for the main relevant epidemiological processes, including the seasonal dynamics of P. spumarius. The model was confronted with epidemiological data from the two major outbreaks of Xf in Europe, the olive quick disease syndrome (OQDS) in Apulia, Italy, caused by the subspecies pauca, and the almond leaf scorch disease (ALSD) in Majorca, Spain, caused by subspecies multiplex and fastidiosa. Using a Bayesian inference framework, we show how the model successfully reproduces the general field data in both diseases. In a global sensitivity analysis, the vector-plant and plant-vector transmission rates, together with the vector removal rate, were the most influential parameters in determining the time of the infected host population peak, the incidence peak and the final number of dead hosts. We also used our model to check different vector-based control strategies, showing that a joint strategy focused on increasing the rate of vector removal while lowering the number of annual newborn vectors is optimal for disease control.
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