德国Dunkelflauten期间的气象条件：特征、天气型的作用及对需求的影响
Meteorological conditions during Dunkelflauten in Germany: Characteristics, the role of weather regimes and impacts on demand
AI总结：
本研究引入天气型概念分析德国Dunkelflauten（黑暗无风期）的气象特征，发现其多发生于冬季，主要由欧洲阻塞型高压导致，格陵兰阻塞型下的该现象还会推高用电需求，为弹性能源系统规划提供依据。
摘要：
风能和太阳能的可再生发电高度依赖天气。为了规划能够应对这种波动性的未来可持续能源系统，更好地了解低风光输出时段的发生原因和时间具有重要价值。我们将这类低风光输出时段称为“Dunkelflauten”，即德语中“黑暗无风期”的意思。本文中，我们通过应用天气型概念分析了德国Dunkelflauten期间的气象条件。天气型是准静止、反复出现且持续的大尺度环流型，可解释数天（5-15天）的大气变率。我们采用的天气型定义能够区分四种不同类型的阻塞型，其特征为北大西洋-欧洲区域的高压形势。研究发现，在德国，Dunkelflauten主要发生在冬季，此时太阳能输出本就较低，且风力发电输出会连续数天下降。与欧洲阻塞型（European Blocking regime）相关的德国上空高压系统是造成大部分Dunkelflauten的原因。格陵兰阻塞型（Greenland Blocking regime）期间的Dunkelflauten伴随比往常更低的气温，导致电力需求升高，并且随着未来空间供暖需求电气化，这将构成特殊挑战。此外，我们还表明Dunkelflauten主要发生在天气型完全建立且持续时间长于往常的时候。本研究为Dunkelflauten的发生规律和气象特征提供了新的见解，这对于规划弹性能源系统以及支持电网运营商应对潜在供应短缺至关重要。
英文摘要：
Renewable generation from wind and solar power is strongly weather-dependent. To plan future sustainable energy systems that are robust to this variability, a better understanding of why and when periods of low wind and solar power output occur is valuable. We call such periods of low wind and solar power output `Dunkelflauten', the German word for dark wind lulls. In this article, we analyse the meteorological conditions during Dunkelflauten in Germany by applying the concept of weather regimes. Weather regimes are quasi-stationary, recurrent, and persistent large-scale circulation patterns which explain multi-day atmospheric variability (5-15 days). We use a regime definition that allows us to distinguish four different types of blocked regimes, characterised by high pressure situations in the North Atlantic-European region. We find that in Germany, Dunkelflauten mainly occur in winter when the solar power output is anyway low and when the wind power output drops for several consecutive days. A high-pressure system over Germany, associated with the European Blocking regime, is responsible for most of the Dunkelflauten. Dunkelflauten during the Greenland Blocking regime are associated with colder temperatures than usual, causing higher electricity demand and presenting a particular challenge as space heating demand electrifies in future. Furthermore, we show that Dunkelflauten occur predominantly when a weather regime is well-established and persists longer than usual. Our study provides novel insight on the occurrence and meteorological characteristics of Dunkelflauten, which is essential for planning resilient energy systems and supporting grid operators to prepare for potential shortages in supply.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
