Third-order weak lensing statistics are a promising tool for cosmological analyses since they extract cosmological information in the non-Gaussianity of the cosmic large-scale structure. However, such analyses require precise and accurate models for the covariance. In this second paper of a series on third-order weak lensing statistics, we derive and validate an analytic model for the covariance of the third-order aperture statistics $\langle M_\mathrm{ap}^3\rangle$. We derive the covariance model from a real-space estimator for $\langle M_\mathrm{ap}^3\rangle$. We validate the model by comparing it to estimates from simulated Gaussian random fields (GRF) and two sets of N-body simulations. Finally, we perform mock cosmological analyses with the model covariance and the simulation estimate to compare the resulting parameter constraints. We find good agreement between the model and the simulations, both for the GRF and the $N$-body simulations. The figure-of-merit in the $S_8$-$Ω_\mathrm{m}$ plane from our covariance model is within 3\% of the one obtained from the simulated covariances. We also show that our model, which is based on an estimator using convergence maps, can be used to obtain upper and lower bounds for the covariance of an estimator based on three-point shear correlation functions. This second estimator is required for realistic survey data. In our derivation, we find that the $\langle M_\mathrm{ap}^3\rangle$ covariance cannot be obtained from the bispectrum covariance and that it includes several `finite-field terms' that do not scale with the inverse survey area. Our covariance model is sufficiently accurate for analysing stage III surveys. Covariances for statistics in Fourier space cannot always be straightforwardly converted into covariance for real-space statistics. The modelling code is available at https://github.com/sheydenreich/threepoint/releases/ .
A roadmap to cosmological parameter analysis with third-order shear statistics III: Efficient estimation of third-order shear correlation functions and an application to the KiDS-1000 data
A roadmap to cosmological parameter analysis with third-order shear statistics IV. Analytic cross-covariance between second- and third-order aperture masses
[Abridged] We seek approximations to the cosmic shear covariance that are as easy to use as the common approximations based on normal statistics, but yield more accurate covariance matrices and parameter errors. We derive expressions for the cosmic shear covariance under the assumption that the underlying convergence field follows log-normal statistics. We also derive a simplified version of this log-normal approximation. We use numerical simulations of weak lensing to study how well the normal, log-normal, and simplified log-normal approximations as well as empirical corrections to the normal…
Data re-sampling methods such as the delete-one jackknife are a common tool for estimating the covariance of large scale structure probes. In this paper we investigate the concepts of internal covariance estimation in the context of cosmic shear two-point statistics. We demonstrate how to use log-normal simulations of the convergence field and the corresponding shear field to carry out realistic tests of internal covariance estimators and find that most estimators such as jackknife or sub-sample covariance can reach a satisfactory compromise between bias and variance of the estimated covarianc…
Analytical method for computing the covariance matrix of cosmic shear two-point correlation function
Kavli Institute for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe (WPI), The University of Tokyo Institutes for Advanced Study (UTIAS), The University of Tokyo（东京大学宇宙物质宇宙学前沿研究机构）；Department of Physics, The University of Tokyo（东京大学物理系）；Center for Frontier Science, Chiba University（千叶大学前沿科学中心）；Center for Data-Driven Discovery (CD3), Kavli IPMU (WPI), UTIAS, The University of Tokyo（东京大学数据驱动发现中心）
Accurate inference of cosmology from weak lensing shear requires an accurate shear power spectrum covariance matrix. Here, we investigate this accuracy requirement and quantify the relative importance of the Gaussian (G), super-sample covariance (SSC) and connected non-Gaussian (cNG) contributions to the covariance. Specifically, we forecast cosmological parameter constraints for future wide-field surveys and study how different covariance matrix components affect parameter bounds. Our main result is that the cNG term represents only a small and potentially negligible contribution to statistic…
In this study, we measure the response of matter and halo projected power spectra $P^{\rm 2D}_{\rm XY}(k)$ (X, Y are matter and/or halos), to a large-scale density contrast, $δ_{\rm b}$, using separate universe simulations. We show that the fractional response functions, i.e., $\mathrm{d}\ln P^{\rm 2D}_{\rm XY}(k)/\mathrm{d}δ_{\rm b}$, are identical to their respective three-dimensional power spectra within simulation measurement errors. Then, using various $N$-body simulation combinations (small-box simulations with periodic boundary conditions and sub-volumes of large-box simulations) to con…
We present here the cosmo-SLICS, a new suite of simulations specially designed for the analysis of current and upcoming weak lensing data beyond the standard two-point cosmic shear. We sample the $[Ω_{\rm m}, σ_8, h, w_0]$ parameter space at 25 points organised in a Latin hyper-cube, spanning a range that contains most of the $2σ$ posterior distribution from ongoing lensing surveys. At each of these nodes we evolve a pair of $N$-body simulations in which the sampling variance is highly suppressed, and ray-trace the volumes 800 times to further increase the effective sky coverage. We extract a …
Using 1000 ray-tracing simulations for a Λ-dominated cold dark model in Sato et al. (2009), we study the covariance matrix of cosmic shear correlation functions, which is the standard statistics used in the previous measurements. The shear correlation function of a particular separation angle is affected by Fourier modes over a wide range of multipoles, even beyond a survey area, which complicates the analysis of the covariance matrix. To overcome such obstacles we first construct Gaussian shear simulations from the 1000 realizations, and then use the Gaussian simulations to disentangle the Ga…
(Abridged) We investigate and quantify the impact of finite simulation volume on weak lensing two- and four-point statistics. These {\it finite support} (FS) effects are modelled for several estimators, simulation box sizes and source redshifts, and validated against a new large suite of 500 $N$-body simulations. The comparison reveals that our theoretical model is accurate to better than 5 per cent for the shear correlation function $ξ_{+}(θ)$ and its error. We find that the most important quantities for FS modelling is the ratio between the measured angle $θ$ and the angular size of the simu…
We present the application of the pseudo-spectrum method to galaxy-galaxy lensing. We derive explicit expressions for the pseudo-spectrum analysis of the galaxy-shear cross spectrum, which is the Fourier space counterpart of the stacked galaxy-galaxy lensing profile. The pseudo-spectrum method corrects observational issues such as the survey geometry, masks of bright stars and their spikes, and inhomogeneous noise, which distort the spectrum and also mix the E-mode and the B-mode signals. Using ray-tracing simulations in N-body simulations including realistic masks, we confirm that the pseudo-…
We present a public suite of weak lensing mock data, extending the Scinet Light Cone Simulations (SLICS) to simulate cross-correlation analyses with different cosmological probes. These mocks include KiDS-450- and LSST-like lensing data, cosmic microwave background lensing maps and simulated spectroscopic surveys that emulate the GAMA, BOSS and 2dFLenS galaxy surveys. With 844 independent realisations, our mocks are optimised for combined-probe covariance estimation, which we illustrate for the case of a joint measurement involving cosmic shear, galaxy-galaxy lensing and galaxy clustering from…
Cosmic shear is one of the most powerful probes of Dark Energy, targeted by several current and future galaxy surveys. Lensing shear, however, is only sampled at the positions of galaxies with measured shapes in the catalog, making its associated sky window function one of the most complicated amongst all projected cosmological probes of inhomogeneities, as well as giving rise to inhomogeneous noise. Partly for this reason, cosmic shear analyses have been mostly carried out in real-space, making use of correlation functions, as opposed to Fourier-space power spectra. Since the use of power spe…
We present a new method, called $x$-cut cosmic shear, which optimally removes sensitivity to poorly modeled scales from the two-point cosmic shear signal. We show that the $x$-cut cosmic shear covariance matrix can be computed from the correlation function covariance matrix in a few minutes, enabling a likelihood analysis at virtually no additional computational cost. Further we show how to generalize $x$-cut cosmic shear to galaxy-galaxy lensing. Performing an $x$-cut cosmic shear analysis of the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DESY1) shear data, we reduce the error on $S_8= σ_8 (Ω_m / 0.3) ^ {0.5…
One of the primary sources of uncertainties in modeling the cosmic-shear power spectrum on small scales is the effect of baryonic physics. Accurate cosmology for Stage-IV surveys requires knowledge of the matter power spectrum deep in the nonlinear regime at the percent level. Therefore, it is important to develop reliable mitigation techniques to take into account baryonic uncertainties if information from small scales is to be considered in the cosmological analysis. In this work, we develop a new mitigation method for dealing with baryonic physics for the case of the shear angular power spe…
We study the covariance properties of real space correlation function estimators -- primarily galaxy-shear correlations, or galaxy-galaxy lensing -- using SDSS data for both shear catalogs and lenses (specifically the BOSS LOWZ sample). Using mock catalogs of lenses and sources, we disentangle the various contributions to the covariance matrix and compare them with a simple analytical model. We show that not subtracting the lensing measurement around random points from the measurement around the lens sample is equivalent to performing the measurement using the lens density field instead of the…
Stacked lensing is a powerful means of measuring the average mass distribution around large-scale structure tracers. There are two stacked lensing estimators used in the literature, denoted as $ΔΣ$ and $γ_+$, which are related as $ΔΣ=Σ_{\rm cr}γ_+$, where $Σ_{\rm cr}(z_l,z_s)$ is the critical surface mass density for each lens-source pair ($z_l$ and $z_s$ are lens and source redshifts, respectively). In this paper we derive a formula for the covariance matrix of $ΔΣ$-estimator focusing on `weight' function to improve the signal-to-noise ($S/N$). We assume that the lensing fields and the distri…
Cosmic shear - the weak gravitational lensing effect generated by fluctuations of the gravitational tidal fields of the large-scale structure - is one of the most promising tools for current and future cosmological analyses. The spherical-Bessel decomposition of the cosmic shear field ("3D cosmic shear") is one way to maximise the amount of redshift information in a lensing analysis and therefore provides a powerful tool to investigate in particular the growth of cosmic structure that is crucial for dark energy studies. However, the computation of simulated 3D cosmic shear covariance matrices …
We present a combined cosmic shear analysis of the modeling of line-of-sight distortions on strongly lensed extended arcs and galaxy shape measurements in the COSMOS field. We develop a framework to predict the covariance of strong lensing and galaxy shape measurements of cosmic shear on the basis of the small scale matter power-spectrum. The weak lensing measurement is performed using data from the COSMOS survey calibrated with a cloning scheme using the Ultra Fast Image Generator UFig (Berge 2013). The strong lensing analysis is performed by forward modeling the lensing arcs with a main lens…
Developing accurate analysis techniques to combine various probes of cosmology is essential to tighten constraints on cosmological parameters and to check for inconsistencies in our model of the Universe. In this paper we develop a joint analysis framework for six different second-order statistics calculated from three tracers of the dark matter density field, namely galaxy position, shear, and magnification. We extend a data compression scheme developed in the context of shear-shear statistics (the so-called COSEBIs) to the other five second-order statistics, thereby significantly reducing th…
We explore the impact of an update to the typical approximation for the shape noise term in the analytic covariance matrix for cosmic shear experiments that assumes the absence of survey boundary and mask effects. We present an exact expression for the number of galaxy pairs in this term based on the the survey mask, which leads to more than a factor of three increase in the shape noise on the largest measured scales for the Kilo-Degree Survey (KIDS-450) real-space cosmic shear data. We compare the result of this analytic expression to several alternative methods for measuring the shape noise …
Future large scale cosmological surveys will provide huge data sets whose analysis requires efficient data compression. Calculating accurate covariances is extremely challenging with increasing number of statistics used. Here we introduce a formalism for achieving efficient data compression, based on a local expansion of statistical measures around a fiducial cosmological model. We specifically apply and test this approach for the case of cosmic shear statistics. We demonstrate the performance of our approach, using a Fisher analysis on cosmic shear tomography described in terms of E-/B-mode s…
A new cosmic shear analysis pipeline SUNGLASS (Simulated UNiverses for Gravitational Lensing Analysis and Shear Surveys) is introduced. SUNGLASS is a pipeline that rapidly generates simulated universes for weak lensing and cosmic shear analysis. The pipeline forms suites of cosmological N-body simulations and performs tomographic cosmic shear analysis using line-of-sight integration through these simulations while saving the particle lightcone information. Galaxy shear and convergence catalogues with realistic 3D galaxy redshift distributions are produced for the purposes of testing weak lensi…
Constraining cosmology using weak gravitational lensing consists of comparing a measured feature vector of dimension $N_b$ with its simulated counterpart. An accurate estimate of the $N_b\times N_b$ feature covariance matrix $\mathbf{C}$ is essential to obtain accurate parameter confidence intervals. When $\mathbf{C}$ is measured from a set of simulations, an important question is how large this set should be. To answer this question, we construct different ensembles of $N_r$ realizations of the shear field, using a common randomization procedure that recycles the outputs from a smaller number…
We examine cosmological constraints from high precision weak lensing surveys including super-sample covariance (SSC) due to the finite survey volume. Specifically, we focus on the contribution of {\it beat coupling} in the intrinsic alignments as a part of full cosmic shear signal under flat sky approximation. The SSC-effect grows by going to lower redshift bin and indicates considerable footprint on the intermediate and high multipoles for cumulative signal to noise ratio (SNR). The SNR is reduced by $\approx 10\%$ as a consequence of including the intrinsic alignments super-sample covariance…
Weak-lensing searches for galaxy clusters are plagued by low completeness and purity, severely limiting their usefulness for constraining cosmological parameters with the cluster mass function. A significant fraction of `false positives' are due to projection of large-scale structure and as such carry information about the matter distribution. We demonstrate that by constructing a "peak function", in analogy to the cluster mass function, cosmological parameters can be constrained. To this end we carried out a large number of cosmological N-body simulations in the Ω_m-σ_8 plane to study the var…
Owing to the mass-sheet degeneracy, cosmic shear maps do not probe directly the Fourier modes of the underlying mass distribution on scales comparable to the survey size and larger. To assess the corresponding effect on attainable cosmological parameter constraints, we quantify the information on super-survey modes in a lognormal model and, when interpreted as nuisance parameters, their degeneracies to cosmological parameters. Our analytical and numerical calculations clarify the central role of super-sample covariance (SSC) in shaping the statistical power of cosmological observables. Reconst…
Cosmological parameter constraints from recent galaxy imaging surveys are reaching $2-3\%$-level accuracy. The upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory will produce sub-percent level measurements of cosmological parameters, providing a milestone test of the $Λ$CDM model. To supply guidance to the upcoming LSST analysis, it is important to understand thoroughly the results from different recent galaxy imaging surveys and assess their consistencies. In this work we perform a unified catalog-level reanalysis of three cosmic shear datasets: the first year da…
Covariance matrices are important tools for obtaining reliable parameter constraints. Advancements in cosmological surveys lead to larger data vectors and, consequently, increasingly complex covariance matrices, whose number of elements grows as the square of the size of the data vector. The most straightforward way of comparing these matrices, in terms of their ability to produce parameter constraints, involves a full cosmological analysis, which can be very computationally expensive. Using the concept and construction of compression schemes, which have become increasingly popular, we propose…
The abundance of peaks in weak gravitational lensing maps is a potentially powerful cosmological tool, complementary to measurements of the shear power spectrum. We study peaks detected directly in shear maps, rather than convergence maps, an approach that has the advantage of working directly with the observable quantity, the galaxy ellipticity catalog. Using large numbers of numerical simulations to accurately predict the abundance of peaks and their covariance, we quantify the cosmological constraints attainable by a large-area survey similar to that expected from the Euclid mission, focuss…
An optimal quadratic estimator for window-free cosmic shear power spectra
Kavli Institute for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe (WPI), The University of Tokyo Institutes for Advanced Study (UTIAS), The University of Tokyo（东京大学宇宙物质前沿研究所（WPI）、东京大学高等研究院（UTIAS）、东京大学）；Department of Physics, The University of Tokyo（东京大学物理学系）；Center for Data-Driven Discovery (CD3), Kavli IPMU (WPI), UTIAS, The University of Tokyo（东京大学数据驱动发现中心（CD3）、卡弗里宇宙物理数学前沿研究所（WPI）、UTIAS、东京大学）
The likelihood function for cosmological parameters, given by e.g. weak lensing shear measurements, depends on contributions to the covariance induced by the nonlinear evolution of the cosmic web. As nonlinear clustering to date has only been described by numerical $N$-body simulations in a reliable and sufficiently precise way, the necessary computational costs for estimating those covariances at different points in parameter space are tremendous. In this work we describe the change of the matter covariance and of the weak lensing covariance matrix as a function of cosmological parameters by …
Recently, it has been shown that cross-correlating CMB lensing and 3D cosmic shear allows to considerably tighten cosmological parameter constraints. We investigate whether similar improvement can be achieved in a conventional tomographic setup. We present Fisher parameter forecasts for a Euclid-like galaxy survey in combination with different ongoing and forthcoming CMB experiments. In contrast to a fully three-dimensional analysis we find only marginal improvement. Assuming Planck-like CMB data we show that including the full covariance of the combined CMB and cosmic shear data improves the …
Most cosmic shear analyses to date have relied on summary statistics (e.g. $ξ_+$ and $ξ_-$). These types of analyses are necessarily sub-optimal, as the use of summary statistics is lossy. In this paper, we forward-model the convergence field of the Universe as a lognormal random field conditioned on the observed shear data. This new map-based inference framework enables us to recover the joint posterior of the cosmological parameters and the convergence field of the Universe. Our analysis properly accounts for the covariance in the mass maps across tomographic bins, which significantly improv…
Weak gravitational lensing is one of the most promising tools to investigate the equation-of-state of dark energy. In order to obtain reliable parameter estimations for current and future experiments, a good theoretical understanding of dark matter clustering is essential. Of particular interest is the statistical precision to which weak lensing observables, such as cosmic shear correlation functions, can be determined. We construct a fitting formula for the non-Gaussian part of the covariance of the lensing power spectrum. The Gaussian contribution to the covariance, which is proportional to …
We examine the cosmological constraining power of future large-scale weak lensing surveys on the model of \emph{Euclid}, with particular reference to primordial non-Gaussianity. Our analysis considers several different estimators of the projected matter power spectrum, based on both shear and flexion, for which we review the covariances and Fisher matrices. The bounds provided by cosmic shear alone for the local bispectrum shape, marginalized over $σ_8$, are at the level of $Δf_\mathrm{NL} \sim 100$. We consider three additional bispectrum shapes, for which the cosmic shear constraints range f…
The decomposition of the cosmic shear field into E- and B-mode is an important diagnostic in weak gravitational lensing. However, commonly used techniques to perform this separation suffer from mode-mixing on very small or very large scales. We introduce a new E-/B-mode decomposition of the cosmic shear two-point correlation on a finite interval. This new statistic is optimised for cosmological applications, by maximising the signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) and a figure of merit (FoM) based on the Fisher matrix of the cosmological parameters Omega_m and sigma_8. We improve both S/N and FoM results…
Context. Gravitational lensing is one of the leading tools in understanding the dark side of the Universe. The need for accurate, efficient and effective methods which are able to extract this information along with other cosmological parameters from cosmic shear data is ever growing. COSEBIs, Complete Orthogonal Sets of E-/B-Integrals, is a recently developed statistical measure that encompasses the complete E-/B-mode separable information contained in the shear correlation functions measured on a finite angular range. Aims. The aim of the present work is to test the properties of this newly …
Gravitational lensing surveys have now become large and precise enough that the interpretation of the lensing signal has to take into account an increasing number of theoretical limitations and observational biases. Since the lensing signal is the strongest at small angular scales, only numerical simulations can reproduce faithfully the non-linear dynamics and secondary effects at play. This work is the first of a series in which all gravitational lensing corrections known so far will be implemented in the same set of simulations, using realistic mock catalogues and non-Gaussian statistics. In…
Baryonic feedback effects lead to a suppression of the weak lensing angular power spectrum on small scales. The poorly constrained shape and amplitude of this suppression is an important source of uncertainties for upcoming cosmological weak lensing surveys such as Euclid or LSST. In this first paper in a series of two, we use simulations to build a Euclid-like tomographic mock data-set for the cosmic shear power spectrum and the corresponding covariance matrix, which are both corrected for baryonic effects following the baryonification method of Schneider et al. (2019). In addition, we develo…
We use weak lensing data from the Hubble Space Telescope COSMOS survey to measure the second- and third-moments of the cosmic shear field, estimated from about 450,000 galaxies with average redshift <z> ~ 1.3. We measure two- and three-point shear statistics using a tree-code, dividing the signal in E, B and mixed components. We present a detection of the third-order moment of the aperture mass statistic and verify that the measurement is robust against systematic errors caused by point spread function (PSF) residuals and by the intrinsic alignments between galaxies. The amplitude of the measu…
We constrain cosmological parameters from a joint cosmic shear analysis of peak-counts and the two-point shear correlation functions, as measured from the Dark Energy Survey (DES-Y1). We find the structure growth parameter $S_8\equiv σ_8\sqrt{Ω_{\rm m}/0.3} = 0.766^{+0.033}_{-0.038}$, which at 4.8% precision, provides one of the tightest constraints on $S_8$ from the DES-Y1 weak lensing data. In our simulation-based method we determine the expected DES-Y1 peak-count signal for a range of cosmologies sampled in four $w$CDM parameters ($Ω_{\rm m}$, $σ_8$, $h$, $w_0$). We also determine the joint…
We perform a cosmic shear analysis of HSC survey first-year data (HSC-Y1) using Complete Orthogonal Sets of E/B-Integrals (COSEBIs) to derive cosmological constraints. We compute E/B-mode COSEBIs from cosmic shear two-point correlation functions measured on an angular range of $4\arcmin<θ<180\arcmin$. We perform the standard Bayesian likelihood analysis for cosmological inference from the measured E-mode COSEBIs, including contributions from intrinsic alignments of galaxies as well as systematic effects from point spread function model errors, shear calibration uncertainties, and source redshi…
In the past few years, several independent collaborations have presented cosmological constraints from tomographic cosmic shear analyses. These analyses differ in many aspects: the datasets, the shear and photometric redshift estimation algorithms, the theory model assumptions, and the inference pipelines. To assess the robustness of the existing cosmic shear results, we present in this paper a unified analysis of four of the recent cosmic shear surveys: the Deep Lens Survey (DLS), the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Lensing Survey (CFHTLenS), the Science Verification data from the Dark Energy …
We present cosmological parameter constraints from a tomographic weak gravitational lensing analysis of ~450deg$^2$ of imaging data from the Kilo Degree Survey (KiDS). For a flat $Λ$CDM cosmology with a prior on $H_0$ that encompasses the most recent direct measurements, we find $S_8\equivσ_8\sqrt{Ω_{\rm m}/0.3}=0.745\pm0.039$. This result is in good agreement with other low redshift probes of large scale structure, including recent cosmic shear results, along with pre-Planck cosmic microwave background constraints. A $2.3$-$σ$ tension in $S_8$ and `substantial discordance' in the full paramet…
Fisher Information Matrix methods are commonly used in cosmology to estimate the accuracy that cosmological parameters can be measured with a given experiment, and to optimise the design of experiments. However, the standard approach usually assumes both data and parameter estimates are Gaussian-distributed. Further, for survey forecasts and optimisation it is usually assumed the power-spectra covariance matrix is diagonal in Fourier-space. But in the low-redshift Universe, non-linear mode-coupling will tend to correlate small-scale power, moving information from lower to higher-order moments …
We study the cosmological information of weak lensing (WL) peaks, focusing on two other statistics besides their abundance: the stacked tangential-shear profiles and the peak-peak correlation function. We use a large ensemble of simulated WL maps with survey specifications relevant to future missions like Euclid and LSST, to explore the three peak probes. We find that the correlation function of peaks with high signal-to-noise (S/N) measured from fields of size 144 sq. deg. has a maximum of ~0.3 at an angular scale ~10 arcmin. For peaks with smaller S/N, the amplitude of the correlation functi…
