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arXiv 2211.05697eess.SYcs.LGcs.SY
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电池寿命早期预测的贝叶斯分层模型

Bayesian hierarchical modelling for battery lifetime early prediction

University of Oxford(牛津大学)

Zihao Zhou, David A. Howey

摘要:

准确预测电池健康状况对于现实世界的系统管理和基于实验室的实验设计至关重要。然而,从不同的循环条件下建立寿命预测模型仍然是一个挑战。循环条件和初始制造可变性都会导致较大的寿命可变性,这一点-以及通常可用于每个循环条件的有限实验资源-使得数据驱动的寿命预测具有挑战性。在这里,提出了一种分层贝叶斯线性模型用于电池寿命预测,将单个电池特征(反映制造可变性)与群体特征(反映循环条件对群体平均值的影响)相结合。个体特征是从前100个数据循环中收集的,这大约是寿命的5-10%。该模型能够预测寿命结束,均方根误差为3.2天,平均绝对百分比误差为8.6%,通过5倍交叉验证测量,超过基线(非分层)模型约12- 13%。

英文摘要:

Accurate prediction of battery health is essential for real-world system management and lab-based experiment design. However, building a life-prediction model from different cycling conditions is still a challenge. Large lifetime variability results from both cycling conditions and initial manufacturing variability, and this -- along with the limited experimental resources usually available for each cycling condition -- makes data-driven lifetime prediction challenging. Here, a hierarchical Bayesian linear model is proposed for battery life prediction, combining both individual cell features (reflecting manufacturing variability) with population-wide features (reflecting the impact of cycling conditions on the population average). The individual features were collected from the first 100 cycles of data, which is around 5-10% of lifetime. The model is able to predict end of life with a root mean square error of 3.2 days and mean absolute percentage error of 8.6%, measured through 5-fold cross-validation, overperforming the baseline (non-hierarchical) model by around 12-13%.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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