The emergence of infectious disease COVID-19 has challenged and changed the world in an unprecedented manner. The integration of wireless networks with edge computing (namely wireless edge networks) brings opportunities to address this crisis. In this paper, we aim to investigate the prediction of the infectious probability and propose precautionary measures against COVID-19 with the assistance of wireless edge networks. Due to the availability of the recorded detention time and the density of individuals within a wireless edge network, we propose a stochastic geometry-based method to analyze the infectious probability of individuals. The proposed method can well keep the privacy of individuals in the system since it does not require to know the location or trajectory of each individual. Moreover, we also consider three types of mobility models and the static model of individuals. Numerical results show that analytical results well match with simulation results, thereby validating the accuracy of the proposed model. Moreover, numerical results also offer many insightful implications. Thereafter, we also offer a number of countermeasures against the spread of COVID-19 based on wireless edge networks. This study lays the foundation toward predicting the infectious risk in realistic environment and points out directions in mitigating the spread of infectious diseases with the aid of wireless edge networks.
Epidemic modeling in complex networks has become one of the latest topics in recent times. The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model and its variants are often used for epidemic modeling. One important issue in epidemic modeling is the determination of the spreading ability of the nodes in the network. Thus, for example, can be detected in the early stages. In this study, we developed a centrality measure called Lexical Sorting Centrality (LSC) that distinguishes the spreading ability of the nodes. Using other centrality measures calculated for the nodes, LSC sorts the nodes in a way si…
We build a deep-learning-based SEIR-AIM model integrating the classical Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed epidemiology model with forecast modules of infection, community mobility, and unemployment. Through linking Google's multi-dimensional mobility index to economic activities, public health status, and mitigation policies, our AI-assisted model captures the populace's endogenous response to economic incentives and health risks. In addition to being an effective predictive tool, our analyses reveal that the long-term effective reproduction number of COVID-19 equilibrates around one befo…
The main aim to build models capable of simulating the spreading of infectious diseases is to control them. And along this way, the key to find the optimal strategy for disease control is to obtain a large number of simulations of disease transitions under different scenarios. Therefore, the models that can simulate the spreading of diseases under scenarios closer to the reality and are with high efficiency are preferred. In the realistic social networks, the random contact, including contacts between people in the public places and the public transits, becomes the important access for the spr…
We are facing a common serious issue, infectious diseases, and trying to suppress the spreading of infection. We need less contact with each other to decrease the chance of infection, but this means loss of economic activity, as well. This tradeoff is inevitable in our society, because we still need direct communication and commuting, so far. The focus of our paper is the structure of society, on which we have direct contacts. We study on spreading process with artificial sosiety model, where each agent has daily cycle and go office and back home, every day. At the same time, infection spreads…
Currently, the global situation of COVID-19 is aggravating, pressingly calling for efficient control and prevention measures. Understanding spreading pattern of COVID-19 has been widely recognized as a vital step for implementing non-pharmaceutical measures. Previous studies investigated such an issue in large-scale (e.g., inter-country or inter-state) scenarios while urban spreading pattern still remains an open issue. Here, we fill this gap by leveraging the trajectory data of 197,808 smartphone users (including 17,808 anonymous confirmed cases) in 9 cities in China. We find a universal spre…
Infectious diseases are a significant threat to human society which was over sighted before the incidence of COVID-19, although according to the report of the World Health Organisation (WHO) about 4.2 million people die annually due to infectious disease. Due to recent COVID-19 pandemic, more than 2 million people died during 2020 and 96.2 million people got affected by this devastating disease. Recent research shows that applying individual interactions and movements data could help managing the pandemic though modelling the spread of infectious diseases on social contact networks. Infectious…
Nowadays, the coronavirus pandemic has and is still causing large numbers of deaths and infected people. Although governments all over the world have taken severe measurements to slow down the virus spreading (e.g., travel restrictions, suspending all sportive, social, and economic activities, quarantines, social distancing, etc.), a lot of persons have died and a lot more are still in danger. Indeed, a recently conducted study~\cite{ref2} has reported that 79\% of the confirmed infections in China were caused by undocumented patients who had no symptoms. In the same context, in numerous other…
Coronavirus outbreak is one of the most challenging pandemics for the entire human population of the planet Earth. Techniques such as the isolation of infected persons and maintaining social distancing are the only preventive measures against the epidemic COVID-19. The actual estimation of the number of infected persons with limited data is an indeterminate problem faced by data scientists. There are a large number of techniques in the existing literature, including reproduction number, the case fatality rate, etc., for predicting the duration of an epidemic and infectious population. This pap…
Many governments have managed to control their COVID-19 outbreak with a simple message: keep the effective '$R$ number' $R<1$ to prevent widespread contagion and flatten the curve. This raises the question whether a similar policy could control dangerous online 'infodemics' of information, misinformation and disinformation. Here we show, using multi-platform data from the COVID-19 infodemic, that its online spreading instead encompasses a different dynamical regime where communities and users within and across independent platforms, sporadically form temporary active links on similar timescale…
The mitigation of an infectious disease spreading has recently gained considerable attention from the research community. It may be obtained by adopting sanitary measurements social rules, together with an extensive vaccination campaign. Vaccination is currently the primary way for mitigating the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) outbreak without severe lockdown. Its effectiveness also depends on the number and timeliness of administrations and thus demands strict prioritization criteria. Almost all countries have prioritized similar classes of exposed workers obtaining to maximize the survival o…
Initially emerged in the Chinese city Wuhan and subsequently spread almost worldwide causing a pandemic, the SARS-CoV-2 virus follows reasonably well the SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) epidemic model on contact networks in the Chinese case. In this paper, we investigate the prediction accuracy of the SIR model on networks also for Italy. Specifically, the Italian regions are a metapopulation represented by network nodes and the network links are the interactions between those regions. Then, we modify the network-based SIR model in order to take into account the different lockdown measu…
Interaction patterns among individuals play vital roles in spreading infectious diseases. Understanding these patterns and integrating their impact in modeling diffusion dynamics of infectious diseases are important for epidemiological studies. Current network-based diffusion models assume that diseases transmit through interactions where both infected and susceptible individuals are co-located at the same time. However, there are several infectious diseases that can transmit when a susceptible individual visits a location after an infected individual has left. Recently, we introduced a diffus…
The aim of this paper consists in the application of a recent epidemiological model, namely SEIR with Social Distancing (SEIR--SD), extended here through the definition of a social distancing function varying over time, to assess the situation related to the spreading of the coronavirus Covid--19 in Italy and in two of its most important regions, i.e., Lombardy and Campania. To profitably use this model, the most suitable values of its parameters must be found. The estimation of the SEIR--SD model parameters takes place here through the use of Differential Evolution, a heuristic optimization t…
University of Oxford（牛津大学）；The Alan Turing Institute（艾伦·图灵研究所）
We present a novel approach incorporating transformer-based language models into infectious disease modelling. Text-derived features are quantified by tracking high-density clusters of sentence-level representations of Reddit posts within specific US states' COVID-19 subreddits. We benchmark these clustered embedding features against features extracted from other high-quality datasets. In a threshold-classification task, we show that they outperform all other feature types at predicting upward trend signals, a significant result for infectious disease modelling in areas where epidemiological d…
Passenger contact in public transit (PT) networks can be a key mediate in the spreading of infectious diseases. This paper proposes a time-varying weighted PT encounter network to model the spreading of infectious diseases through the PT systems. Social activity contacts at both local and global levels are also considered. We select the epidemiological characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a case study along with smart card data from Singapore to illustrate the model at the metropolitan level. A scalable and lightweight theoretical framework is derived to capture the time-v…
We address the diffusion of information about the COVID-19 with a massive data analysis on Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, Reddit and Gab. We analyze engagement and interest in the COVID-19 topic and provide a differential assessment on the evolution of the discourse on a global scale for each platform and their users. We fit information spreading with epidemic models characterizing the basic reproduction numbers $R_0$ for each social media platform. Moreover, we characterize information spreading from questionable sources, finding different volumes of misinformation in each platform. However, in…
German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI)（德国人工智能研究中心）；TU Kaiserslautern（凯泽斯劳滕工业大学）；Deakin University（迪肯大学）
COVID-19 has affected the world economy and the daily life routine of almost everyone. It has been a hot topic on social media platforms such as Twitter, Facebook, etc. These social media platforms enable users to share information with other users who can reshare this information, thus causing this information to spread. Twitter's retweet functionality allows users to share the existing content with other users without altering the original content. Analysis of social media platforms can help in detecting emergencies during pandemics that lead to taking preventive measures. One such type of a…
The risk for severe illness and mortality from COVID-19 significantly increases with age. As a result, age-stratified modeling for COVID-19 dynamics is the key to study how to reduce hospitalizations and mortality from COVID-19. By taking advantage of network theory, we develop an age-stratified epidemic model for COVID-19 in complex contact networks. Specifically, we present an extension of standard SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) compartmental model, called age-stratified SEAHIR (susceptible-exposedasymptomatic-hospitalized-infectious-removed) model, to capture the spread of CO…
Masks are used as part of a comprehensive strategy of measures to limit transmission and save lives during the COVID-19 pandemic. Research about the impact of mask-wearing in the COVID-19 pandemic has raised formidable interest across multiple disciplines. In this paper, we investigate the impact of mask-wearing in spreading processes over complex networks. This is done by studying a heterogeneous bond percolation process over a multi-type network model, where nodes can be one of two types (mask-wearing, and not-mask-wearing). We provide analytical results that accurately predict the expected …
