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arXiv 2209.04526cs.LG
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Gluformer:基于Transformer的具有不确定性量化的个性化葡萄糖预测

Gluformer: Transformer-Based Personalized Glucose Forecasting with Uncertainty Quantification

University of YYY(YYY大学);Institute of WWW(WWW研究所)

Renat Sergazinov, Mohammadreza Armandpour, Irina Gaynanova

摘要:

深度学习模型在预测血糖轨迹方面取得了最先进的成果,并提出了各种架构。然而,这种模型在临床实践中的适应是缓慢的,主要是由于缺乏所提供的预测的不确定性量化。在这项工作中,我们提出将以过去为条件的未来葡萄糖轨迹建模为基础分布的无限混合(即,高斯、拉普拉斯等)。这种变化使我们能够学习不确定性,并在轨迹具有异质或多模态分布的情况下更准确地预测。为了估计预测分布的参数,我们利用Transformer架构。我们经验证明,我们的方法优于现有的国家的最先进的技术,无论是在合成和基准葡萄糖数据集的准确性和不确定性。

英文摘要:

Deep learning models achieve state-of-the art results in predicting blood glucose trajectories, with a wide range of architectures being proposed. However, the adaptation of such models in clinical practice is slow, largely due to the lack of uncertainty quantification of provided predictions. In this work, we propose to model the future glucose trajectory conditioned on the past as an infinite mixture of basis distributions (i.e., Gaussian, Laplace, etc.). This change allows us to learn the uncertainty and predict more accurately in the cases when the trajectory has a heterogeneous or multi-modal distribution. To estimate the parameters of the predictive distribution, we utilize the Transformer architecture. We empirically demonstrate the superiority of our method over existing state-of-the-art techniques both in terms of accuracy and uncertainty on the synthetic and benchmark glucose data sets.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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