后代方差较大时的进化箭头
The arrow of evolution when the offspring variance is large
摘要：
适应度的概念是进化的核心，但它只量化了个体将产生的后代的预期数量。后代的实际数量也受到环境或人口统计随机性的影响。在自然界中，生育能力更强的个体往往在后代数量上有更大的方差--有时远远大于群体遗传学经典模型中假设的泊松方差。在这里，我们开发了一个模型的两种类型的人口中的非常数大小的繁殖的演变。每种类型的频率依赖的健身是由成对的相互作用，在一个囚徒困境的游戏，但后代的数量受到一个外生控制的方差，可能取决于平均值。而叛逃者是首选的自然选择在经典的混合人口，因为他们总是有更大的健身比合作者，我们表明，大的后代方差可以扭转进化的方向，有利于合作。生殖过度分散也为其他类型的社会互动产生了质的新动力，这在具有固定大小或泊松后代方差的群体中是不会出现的。
英文摘要：
The concept of fitness is central to evolution, but it quantifies only the expected number of offspring an individual will produce. The actual number of offspring is also subject to noise, arising from environmental or demographic stochasticity. In nature, individuals who are more fecund tend to have greater variance in their offspring number -- sometimes far greater than the Poisson variance assumed in classical models of population genetics. Here, we develop a model for the evolution of two types reproducing in a population of non-constant size. The frequency-dependent fitness of each type is determined by pairwise interactions in a prisoner's dilemma game, but the offspring number is subject to an exogenously controlled variance that may depend upon the mean. Whereas defectors are preferred by natural selection in classical well-mixed populations, since they always have greater fitness than cooperators, we show that large offspring variance can reverse the direction of evolution and favor cooperation. Reproductive over-dispersion produces qualitatively new dynamics for other types of social interactions, as well, which cannot arise in populations with a fixed size or Poisson offspring variance.
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